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EV Batteries Defy Expectations, Last Hundreds of Thousands of Miles (msn.com) 110

Posted by EditorDavid from the battery-up dept.
247,000 miles on an EV battery? So says the owner of a U.K.-based used-car sales company that specializes in Evs, who tells the Wall Street Journal EV batteries keep performing well even after several hundred thousand miles. "They are proving themselves to be exceptionally reliable." After five years on the road, the average EV will still be able to drive up to 95% of its original range, according to Recurrent, a data-science company that provides a battery-monitoring tool for EVs — better than many in the auto industry expected...

Potential new car buyers' fear of having to pay for a battery replacement is the number one reason they choose to steer clear of EVs, according to a 2025 survey from industry research firm AutoPacific. When early EVs hit the market, buyers' concerns were well-founded. Roughly one in 12 EVs built from 2011 to 2016 have had to have battery replacements. But new data shows that more modern EVs are doing better so far. Among EVs built from 2022 on, 0.3% have had battery replacements, according to a 2025 study from Recurrent. As battery technology has advanced, EVs have avoided problems like the ones that plagued the original Nissan Leaf when it hit the market in 2010, for example. Those cars lacked the battery-cooling technology that is in newer EVs, and they made headlines for wearing down quickly. Buyer perception hasn't quite caught up, according to Scott Case, co-founder and chief executive of Recurrent...

The newest battery-powered EVs have lifespans comparable to internal-combustion-engine vehicles, even when driven more miles, according to Viet Nguyen-Tien, a research officer at the London School of Economics who focuses on Evs. Improvements in car batteries' chemical contents, battery-management systems and thermal regulation have been the difference in making batteries last longer and cost less, Nguyen-Tien said. Battery prices have fallen more than 90% since 2010, according to a BloombergNEF report from late last year. Industry analysts say battery-replacement costs are also improving as more EVs are designed for repairability in the long-haul. An out-of-warranty battery replacement can cost anywhere from $5,000 to $16,000, depending on the manufacturer, according to Recurrent. But many EV manufacturers have shifted to allow smaller components of their battery packs to be repaired, which can allow owners to avoid the full costs of a battery replacement, Case said.

EV batteries aren't without their challenges, though. A battery that is frequently fast-charged with high power loses its range, on average, at twice the rate of a battery charged at a lower power, according to telematics company Geotab. Frequently charging a battery to 100%, or letting it rest at 0% for extended periods, can also reduce range long-term. And EVs regularly deliver less range in extreme cold or heat.
The article also includes two new projections on EV adoption:
  • "The share of new EVs sold is expected to nearly double to 11% of new-car sales in the U.S. by 2030, according to industry consulting firm AlixPartners."
  • "Globally, EVs already make up 15% of new-car sales and are expected to form nearly a quarter of the global market by 2030, according to AlixPartners."

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EV Batteries Defy Expectations, Last Hundreds of Thousands of Miles More

EV Batteries Defy Expectations, Last Hundreds of Thousands of Miles

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  • Unless the company does something really cheesy like overprovision, then run those extra cells first over the warranty period, and only then use the whole pack, the degradation curve of a car battery pack is surprisingly linear. linky [recurrentauto.com]
    linky [geotab.com]

    • First link references that photoshoped image of a battery replacement fee of 20k. You can tell it's photoshoped as the text on it is cleaner than the creased and crinkled paper.

      • >"First link references that photoshoped image of a battery replacement fee of 20k. You can tell it's photoshoped as the text on it is cleaner than the creased and crinkled paper."

        Might be. But it is not far outside the window of actual expense, at least on the high-side. If you have a large battery (like 87kWh), my research shows it can cost $18,000 to replace (parts and labor for a brand new OEM one) in mine. And some manufacturers might be significantly higher... plus I am sure the price is very vo

        • Short searching shows that is only true on the extreme high end of the scale. the 70k-100k extreme luxury ev's.
          For lower cost ev's it's the same as needing to buy a new transmission for a car. 4k to 10k.

          • Re: (Score:2)

            by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

            It's also doable as a DIY job. Some cars are easier than others, but for example a Leaf can be done on your driveway if needed (it's easier with a lift). You can even do cell replacement in Leaf batteries yourself. There are companies that make brand new replacement battery packs too, but the issue is always the shipping cost due to their size and weight. That should improve over time.

            There is also Nio that do battery swaps. Just roll up to the station, the car parks itself and 4 minutes later your have a f

        • > Might be. But it is not far outside the window of actual expense

          "Yeah the evidence is fake but that doesn't mean the conclusion is wrong."

          That's basically politics in 2026 in a nutshell, I guess.
          =Smidge=

    • Re:It's linear (Score:4, Interesting)

      by Guspaz ( 556486 ) on Sunday July 05, 2026 @12:48PM (#66223424)

      The first link doesn't show linear degradation, it seems to show an initial sharp dropoff followed by along steady state of range (the graph of various Tesla Model 3 variants). The second link does show a linear degradation, but at such low rates (~2% health per year) that the battery can reasonably be expected to outlive the car for most consumers.

      My understanding is that rising car costs has pushed US typical replacement terms to ~13 years for cars. At 2% per year, that means your 13 year old car will still have a 74% state of health by the end, which is pretty good. The battery also isn't useless at that point, even if you decide to keep your car longer than that, and have to replace the battery, the old used ones still have significant resale value, helping to defray the replacement cost.

    • The first like shows a 10% drop over a few years then flat (long range).

      Basically flat (mid range)

      And 15% drop then flat (standard plus)

      Not linear at all.

    • There is nothing linear about battery degradation. No lithium based battery degradation over time is linear. No data to date has shown linear degradation, not for consumer electronics, not for the car industry.

      If you're finding examples of linear degradation online I would instantly discount them unless they are reproducing a graph from a peer reviewed scientific paper, and even then I'd read the paper to find out the context that the article has missed.

      Typical lithium degradation over time is a drop to 90-

  • I don't think many newer ev's on the roads use just plain Lithium Ion. What about other chemistry's like lithium ion phosphate etc?

    • Re: (Score:3)

      by Guspaz ( 556486 )

      LFP, NMC, and NCA are the three main types of lithium ion batteries you'll find on roads today. LFP have lower density (they store less power) but are cheaper, safer, and last longer (more cycles), so they're gradually taking over the market, at ballpark 50% market share these days, and growing.

      The next likely chemistry will probably be sodium ion batteries (which are not another lithium ion chemistry, though they're similar). From a specification and performance standpoint, they're largely similar to LFP,

    • Re: (Score:3)

      by Sique ( 173459 )
      There is no such thing as "plain Lithium-Ion". Lithium-Ion is a catch-all term for accumulator cells which use Lithium ions in anode, cathode and electrolyte. There are many versions of them. The oldest type is Lithium-Cobaltoxide (LiCoO2), which uses Cobalt(II)-oxide in the cathode. Then there is Lithium-Nickel-Maganese-Cobalt (LiNMC), which is often used in cars, because it allows for very dense accumulator cells. Lithium-Ironphosphate (LiFePO4), while having the same gravimetric density as LiNMC, takes u

      • >"Many pedelec batteries, but also the Nissan Leaf use Lithium-Manganeseoxide (LiMO) cells."

        The original, old, gen 1 Leaf, yes (2011-2017). But that was changed to NMC in gen 2 (2018-2025), but not sure the exact formula. The new (2026+ gen 3) Leaf uses NMC 811 (80% Nickel, 10% Manganese, 10% Cobalt), just like the Ariya.

  • Study what makes em so good, then "optimize" it so they last as intended and bigger profits can be made.

    • Valid concern, though the reality is that'll just leave the door open for 3rd party battery swaps. I bought my EV used knowing that the battery would probably outlast the body of the car, but in the off-chance that it doesn't, I'm actually a bit hyped for the potential to put a better battery in, with either longer range or less weight (though I assume a lighter battery would mess with the driving dynamics the car was designed for).

    • Time to collect these batteries. Study what makes em so good, then "optimize" it so they last as intended and bigger profits can be made.

      Driver behavior can have a large effect on hybrid batteries. Many batteries have been damaged by owners that try to manually optimize full EV mode operation. It's really best to let the software manage things.

      Do BEVs have any manual overrides that can screw things up with improper use?

  • Defy FUD, Meet Expectations (Score:5, Insightful)

    by crow ( 16139 ) on Sunday July 05, 2026 @10:16AM (#66223286) Homepage Journal

    I don't know what expectations these are defying unless they're from those created by anti-EV FUD. I thought it was pretty clear that EV batteries usually last longer than the cars themselves. If 250K is exceeding expectations, then the expectations are wrong and haven't been supported by the data for a long time.

    • >"I don't know what expectations these are defying unless they're from those created by anti-EV FUD. I thought it was pretty clear that EV batteries usually last longer than the cars themselves."

      There are numerous actual/real cases of poor outcomes for some EV use cases (expensive battery replacements in this topic). But they usually involved very frequent DC/fast charging, from low to high charge states, frequent use/deep discharging, and on older tech. Simple changes to charging methods (I listed in

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by dfghjk ( 711126 )

        "Simple changes to charging methods (I listed in another post, below) will counter most of that."

        Citation please. Anecdotes of early life failures are not conclusive of problems, there are "numerous actual/real cases" of early life failures of ICE vehicles, too. Furthermore, anecdotes don't support your assumption of cause, and cars should be designed to work properly regardless of use. An owner should be incapable of any "charging method" that causes failure.

        "I don't think it is an "anti-EV" conspiracy.

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by q_e_t ( 5104099 )

          An owner should be incapable of any "charging method" that causes failure.

          Next: "my EV doesn't allow me the freedom to deep discharge!"

        • An owner should be incapable of any "charging method" that causes failure.

          Owners drive with low oil or antifreeze all the time. Some owners fail to change their oil despite newer cars going so far as reminding them when it's time. My son blew the head gasket by red lining his engine one time too many.

          Nobody demands the car should prevent the owner from being stupid in those cases. If you spend $40k or more on a vehicle, you ought to take the time to understand what is acceptable care and operation and what isn't. Or else, be prepared to spend a lot of money for that educat

          • Re: (Score:2)

            by Himmy32 ( 650060 )
            Let's also call out that failure with a lithium battery is a really gnarly fire under the body of the car. While there's no perfect, prevent should be something that should require a lot of engineering effort and be prioritized over speed.
            • I thought we were discussing battery degradation and range loss over time due to owner charging practices. This is not a cause of catastrophic failure.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by dfghjk ( 711126 )

      Correct, my immediate reaction. They absolutely live up to expectations, what they do is make fools out of liars.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by tlhIngan ( 30335 )

      If 250K is exceeding expectations, then the expectations are wrong and haven't been supported by the data for a long time.

      I think the feeling is that most people don't drive vehicles much beyond 10 years or 100K miles. Because generally speaking once you get to that point in a car's life, repair costs skyrocket.

      Sure, there are plenty of cars that if treated right will get you way beyond 100K with minimal problems (it's where Toyota gets their reputation), but many will start having issues around 150K or so.

    • I don't know what expectations these are defying unless they're from those created by anti-EV FUD.

      They are defying hybrid battery experience where owners misused manual overrides and damaged their batteries, getting only a fraction of their expected life.

    • I don't know what expectations these are defying unless they're from those created by anti-EV FUD. I thought it was pretty clear that EV batteries usually last longer than the cars themselves.

      Then you haven't been paying attention.

      If 250K is exceeding expectations, then the expectations are wrong and haven't been supported by the data for a long time.

      The problem is we haven't had data for a long time. You only need to go back a decade to find several year old early Leafs demonstrate poor battery performance. Yes around that time Teslas were starting to show people and the industry that batteries do last a long time, but that was initially an outlier in an industry that notoriously had no fucking idea what it was doing.

      Cars universally having proper battery management really are post 2015 thing, and you need to add

      • leaving a petrol car in gear or putting it in neutral when coasting down hill, I bet they'll give you an answer from the 80s (put in neutral) rather than the answer which has been correct for every car manufactured in the past 20 years.

        Please explain this. A car rolling downhill in neutral requires literally 0 fuel. One could turn on the ICE entirely I suppose, really making the point, but putting an ICE in gear could only introduce either acceleration beyond gravity requiring fuel or increase resistance (engine braking.) So clearly putting any vehicle in neutral and rolling downhill is the most energy efficient method. Now, if you're indicating that every car made in the last 20 years is some sort of hybrid with battery regeneration

    • Car manufacturers ended up being a bit conservative with their estimates about how batteries would degrade, since there wasn't a lot of good data on it. They were not predicting that vehicles would get 80-90% of the same range 10-15 years later. They projected more degradation than that.

      I know some of the FUD suggested people would need to replace them completely well before 10 years was up (at nearly the cost of a vehicle), Some was deliberate anti-EV nonsense, and some was people comparing it to their pho

  • Sample size of 2 (Score:3, Interesting)

    by The Asylum ( 149817 ) on Sunday July 05, 2026 @10:34AM (#66223296)

    Really have no complaints with battery life so far - knock wood!

    2017 Tesla Model S P100D - 9 years on the road, 202155 miles (purchased at 50K miles), range 86% of nominal. 270/315 miles

    2015 Tesla Model S 85D - 11 years on the road, 125251 miles (purchased at 16K miles), range 90% of nominal. 244/270 miles

    Both vehicles have free Supercharging, and that gets used a fair amount. Both now have home charging, but the 2015 was almost exclusively supercharged for about 3 years.

    These battery packs have active cooling and heating, and an exceptionally good level of cell balancing, which doubtless helps with the longevity.

    Also, in the 250K+ miles we've driven, we've had one unscheduled stop - a damaged tire. Biggest maintenance item so far was a failed cabin heater and leaking coolant valve on the P100D, that required them to drop the battery to fix it, the rest were several minor warranty repairs, a cracked suspension bushing on the 2015, replacing a rock-damaged windshield, and between the two vehicles there were some door handles and a trunk cinch actuator repaired or replaced. Most of the service work was done by "Tesla Rangers" in the driveway.

    The P100D looks and drives like a two-or-three-year-old vehicle which has had a couple of curbside parking dings, the 85D looks and drives even better. I remember my first automobile - a 1970 Plymouth Duster, slant 6 engine, which had the engine's top end rebuilt at 75K miles and died utterly at 150K miles. Obviously a different class of vehicle, but it was thought of at the time as a vehicle which was so reliable it would outlast the owner - in comparison, it seemed to have been manufactured from empty soup cans and bailing wire - even the paint was mostly gone by 150K miles.

    • Used EVs are such a good buy. My Ioniq 6 came with 40k km on it, and that's basically brand new. Certainly the interior and exterior look pristine, and without many wearing parts, the thing rolled off the lot with 100% of the claimed range (actually, a bit more) and hasn't given me any trouble at all.

      It costs me about $2/100km of driving. I've seen petrol and diesel up to $2/L here on bad days, and even in a very efficient car, you need 5L/100km.

      (One hiccup: someone literally stole my charging cable while t

  • My experience (Score:4, Interesting)

    by Baron_Yam ( 643147 ) on Sunday July 05, 2026 @10:57AM (#66223324)

    This is not a complaint, but I have an 11 year old Leaf and while it reports a 120 km at full charge, it drops to ~80 km by the time you reach the end of the driveway. You don't dare use the heat or AC unless you really need to. Realistically it has about 50-60km of safely usable range.

    It's not enough for distance travel because it's possible to find places along the routes I travel where the gaps between L2 chargers are bigger than that, and I'm not stopping for 10 minutes every 50 km when I still have an ICE vehicle that will go 650 km on a tank.

    However, it is awesome as a city vehicle. I don't even have a 220V outlet for it - it charges overnight on 110V, and I can get around town without ever needing a gas station.

    My experience with the Leaf is why my next car will probably be an off-lease Chevy Bolt, and when I make that move I'll have enough range to do 99% of my driving without stopping.

    • The leaf is the best EV. the battery has been hacked and 3rd parties sell full replacements. with cooling. 350 mile range. go search, you'll see it and proof. it's about $8.5k shipped; not USA because... obviously. add a bunch more $ and you can probably get it.

      I will stop as needed. I simply change my life around the limitation. People used to visit you and you had to feed them, a tradition that continues.... but it was necessary when you traveled by foot or horse to feed and stable their horse (as cheap a

      • Unfortunately an 11 year old EV just isn't worth the battery replacement. The car does what it needs to do, and I'd rather invest in a newer vehicle. It won't be more than a year or two before rust starts eating the thing out from under me anyway.

        • I have a 2013. mine is handling rust well and I live in the rust belt. It helps to wash the car in the winter... also spraying the underside with wool wax and/or truck bed liner... plus a big part of the car is covered in plastic so it doesn't rust too much.

          The old batteries can be repurposed to run the house. hacks are out there how to do that... so the battery is not going to waste. even the 1st battery.

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by r0nc0 ( 566295 )
        The Boomers screwed everything up? Please tell me more.... ... an interested Boomer.

        • Boomers blame everybody else; it's the American way (for generations anyway.)

          There is no point in arguing with a boomer; a minority of them were ok and somehow still can't admit their generation really should be called the ME generation. Not that us gen-X are a lot better...(but we are better.)
          Starting with the boomers we should call the following century "the century of the self." like the documentary by the same name. I suggest you watch it. 4 part mini series.

          It's going to end with Trump who represents t

    • I'm genuinely happy to see posts like yours. There are too many people out there that point to problems with the Leaf and use that as a reason to decide EVs just aren't suitable.

      I offer an example from my Polestar 2 (2024 model):
      - I left the Worley Office in The Hague with 47% charge to go to Brussels airport (170ish km) the car estimated before I left I would get there with 4% battery remaining. I got there with 6% and that boost was due to hitting some traffic (EVs do well with traffic).
      - I have driven ho

  • I know of no battery chemistry that excels at 100% charge. If I were the battery makers, I would set it up as battery can be charged to 125% with that number being equal to what we call 100% now. The range is already much less important than the lifetime of the battery, especially considering that it takes far longer to get a battery that last 20% than it does to get the first 30%.

    My understanding is that the best hybrid vehicles try to keep the battery charged at between 45% to 60%. That has enough power

    • I actually kinda think that's what's going on already, tbh. My Ioniq 6 gets 100% of the claimed range at 90% charge, as near as I can tell. They've definitely fudged it a little.

  • Yeah, right. Better to use the hot air to fill balloons.

  • The article also includes two new projections on EV adoption:

    "The share of new EVs sold is expected to nearly double to 11% of new-car sales in the U.S. by 2030, according to industry consulting firm AlixPartners."

    "Globally, EVs already make up 15% of new-car sales and are expected to form nearly a quarter of the global market by 2030, according to AlixPartners."

    If the other 75% are still liquid fueled in 2030 there will continue to be a good selection to choose from.

    • I think the global numbers are low, honestly, and that's mostly down to this misadventure in Iran. Countries that had to ration oil and gas are seeing people flee to solar panels and Chinese EVs.

      • And that's fine. If that works for them that's great! I don't care what other people drive, but if EVs work great for everyone then they will replace ICE organically without the need for mandates, and if they are not then government should certainly not be forcing it.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by gweihir ( 88907 )

      Including the occasional fuel price hikes when some idiot causes the Strait of Hormuz to be closed ...

      Have fun with your obsolete tech!

      • Including the occasional fuel price hikes when some idiot causes the Strait of Hormuz to be closed ...

        Maybe one day efuels will be an option but the world is not serious enough for that yet. Fortunately Canada has lots of oil of our own.

        Have fun with your obsolete tech!

        Oh I absolutely do all the time! Combustion powered sports cars certainly won't be obsolete in my lifetime, which is good enough for me.

  • Battery life has exceeded the naysayers pronouncements of early doom since the Prius which had to have a 150,000 mile warranty way back in the day, and hardly had anyone using the warranty.

    Same with solar panels which I was told they'd stop working in a few years. In Cape May there are quite functional Solar Arrays that have been there 25 years. At a school.

    Time to move the goalposts again.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by gweihir ( 88907 )

      The deniers will move the goalpost, fabricate stories on failure, lie directly, etc. These people are mentally defective and use the process of first deciding how reality has to be and only then starting to look for evidence they are right. And when that evidence cannot be found, they just make crap up, because they are utterly convinced they are the smartest people around and whatever they think is right must be right. A complete failure of reality perception. I think this should be recognized as a severe

      • The deniers will move the goalpost, fabricate stories on failure, lie directly, etc. These people are mentally defective and use the process of first deciding how reality has to be and only then starting to look for evidence they are right. And when that evidence cannot be found, they just make crap up, because they are utterly convinced they are the smartest people around and whatever they think is right must be right. A complete failure of reality perception. I think this should be recognized as a severe mental disability and treated as such.

        The desire for stasis taken to extremes I suppose.

        One of my favorites is some years ago when a Tesla caught fire, and the asshats tried to claim that Gasoline vehicles did not ever catch fire. That EV's were too dangerous.

        Youtube, and my MIL having two cars incinerate themselves proves that Gasoline powered vehicles burn quite vigorously and fairly often.

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by gweihir ( 88907 )

          Youtube, and my MIL having two cars incinerate themselves proves that Gasoline powered vehicles burn quite vigorously and fairly often.

          These people just make stuff up to fit their hallucinations. No connection to reality. And then they get angry when called out on their crap.

    • Battery life has exceeded the naysayers pronouncements of early doom since the Prius

      True. I bought a used 2010 Prius from CarMax in 2011. They had 4 or five on the lot. They were different trim levels and all were priced at the exact same crazy low price. People were afraid to buy them because of the battery. So, I picked the must highly optioned one and bought it. I then put over 250,000 trouble free miles on it.

      I have had 5 Priuses and two hybrid RAV4s. The Priuses have easily gone over 200,000 miles. The RAVs are too new to have done that, but are doing great. None have had a b

      • Battery life has exceeded the naysayers pronouncements of early doom since the Prius

        True. I bought a used 2010 Prius from CarMax in 2011. They had 4 or five on the lot. They were different trim levels and all were priced at the exact same crazy low price. People were afraid to buy them because of the battery. So, I picked the must highly optioned one and bought it. I then put over 250,000 trouble free miles on it.

        I have had 5 Priuses and two hybrid RAV4s. The Priuses have easily gone over 200,000 miles.

        I've heard an engineer note that the batteries of a Prius are the most pampered and un-abused on the planet.

        I don't know what the deal is with manufacturers recommending those crazy oil change intervals. Mess your engine as a form of planned obsolescence?

        On my Jeep, the computer does all manner of calculations, and decides when to nag you about changing the oil - not using miles, but driving styles, speeds, and I'm pretty certain time in FWD. Seems to work, no issues with my vehicles.

  • So let me get this straight. If I live in a hot or cold environment, and/or I regularly use the advertised range (or as much of it that the car will give me, realistically) to avoid having to sit and wait for fast charge to 80% for an hour on a road trip, I'm looking at (probably) no more than 80% capacity available after 5 years?

    That torpedos the used market solidly. No wonder they're available so much cheaper.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by shilly ( 142940 )

      Let me help. You didn’t get any of that straight: you got it all wrong. No, your car will not see battery SoH fall to 80% after five years if you use the advertised range etc. Just drive the fucking car, plug into a rapid when you need to, and don’t worry about it. The car will be fine.

    • Yes it's great. Clueless people think EVs don't work which makes the second hand market excellent if you're looking to buy a used car.

      The reality is Lithium battery degradation follows a very non-linear curve. Cars will degrade quickly from 100% to around 90-80% and then stay there for virtually the rest of their life, and 80% of range is still more than enough on any current vehicle, even for the road trip fans, except for maybe those weirdos who pee into plastic bottles while driving so they don't need to

    • Re: (Score:3)

      by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      No, that's not how it works.

      Norway is a good source of data for your use case. Very cold for much of the year, months of sub zero temperatures, partly in the Arctic Circle. Large country too, plenty of long distance travel to be done.

      You would typically be looking at over 90% capacity left at 5 years. It depends on how the manufacturer measures it, e.g. Kia and Hyundai state the usable capacity so often are still at 100% after 5 years because any degradation was within the extra "buffer" they give you and d

  • It’s going to upend the used car market (Score:4, Interesting)

    by shilly ( 142940 ) on Sunday July 05, 2026 @02:32PM (#66223560)

    Historically, cars decayed mechnically, which led to churn, which created the used car market volume. A car might come off finance after 3 or 4 years, then be sold once again after another five or six years for a lot less money, then have one or two cycles more before ending up as a beater or as scrap.

    But in an EV world, cars may decay technologically, but they’re going to remain mechanically (ahd chemically) robust for much longer. That will cut failure-driven churn, and is likely to stabilise mid-tier pricing, cut transaction velocity and volumes, etc. The beater market may disappear. Here’s what I mean: an EV with a 300 mile LFP pack (or sodium, in 2027 or 2028) may have essentially the same range after 30 years, because that’s “only” 400,000 or so miles of driving, and the chemistry probably gets you to more like 900,000. The drivetrain is so much simpler that nothing on it is likely to have broken. So at what point do you *need* to sell it because it doesn’t do the original job?

    • Not quite. Beyond the 10 year timeframe another factor comes into play: Battery shelf-life. It will start to degrade over time, even if you rarely drive it. The battery chemistry may get you to 500k+ miles of driving, but the chemistry won't last for 30 years.

      That's not to discount your point. I fully expect EVs to easily last a decade+, but the battery will have a finite life unused so it won't top a unused well maintained ICE vehicle. But that said replacement batteries are a thing. The question will be,

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by shilly ( 142940 )

        We *expect* calendar life to play a role for LFP and sodium chemistries, but the truth is we just don’t know how significant it’s going to be. For NMC, it’s clearly going to have an impact. Even given calendar life, I still think the dynamics of the used car market shift significantly, because that market has all the volume at 3 to 10 years, after which the value drops off a cliff. There’s no volume market for 20 year old ICE vehicles, but there will be for EVs.

    • Software support is going to be the main issue. Unlike an ICEV, software does need to be updated because most EVs use connected car features and software for DC fast charging. Your EV may work fine in 15 years, but it may not support certain DC fast chargers.

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by shilly ( 142940 )

        I’ve never heard of this, and I’ve been driving EVs for 10 years. Maybe Tesla superchargers for their handshake so that plug’n’charge works, but that would only prevent plug n charge, not fail the whole handshake and stop the charging entirely. Which specific DC fast chargers and which cars and what specific requirements? We have plenty of 15 year old computer kit that can still connect to modern routers, and that kit is not expected to be anywhere near as long-lived as a car.

        • I'm talking about stuff like battery preconditioning based on selected chargers and also charger-based route-finding on the internal infotainment. Tesla has been pretty good about updating their cars, but I could see features breaking on many models. Heck, many cars from mid 2010s and earlier have had all connectivity break a few years ago when the cell carriers shut down 3g networks.

          • Re: (Score:2)

            by shilly ( 142940 )

            OK, but those are all ancillary and not core. You implied core capability in your original phrasing: “ software does need to be updated because most EVs use connected car features and software for DC fast charging. Your EV may work fine in 15 years, but it may not support certain DC fast chargers“

            Some (relatively minor) features may stop working, but you’ll still be able to charge 15 years from now.

  • " So says the owner of a U.K.-based used-car sales company that specializes in Evs "

    There can't possibly be any financial incentive or motivation for a used car sales company to stretch
    the truth about the most expensive replacement part in an effort to boost sales of the used EV market. :|

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by gweihir ( 88907 )

      And there really cannot be any possibility to sue that person if they are lying. None at all. And it surely is not criminal either to lie about the main characteristics of a product you sell! Perfectly fine to do so! Hence that person is free to make up whatever they like with NO consequences at all!

      Meanwhile, down here in the real world ...

    • Yeah always consider the source. And then consider the fact you get the same answer from literally countless other sources...

      It's starting to become common knowledge that EV life hasn't been tied to the battery in a decade. There's just people who refuse to accept the data. We've been talking about Teslas doing over 450,000miles over 7 years ago here's an article from 2019 https://insideevs.com/reviews/... [insideevs.com]

      We're also living in a world where EV manufacturers warranty their battery for 8-10 years (the average

  • Vendors are required to state what you get in the worst case. Or at least the risk getting sued into oblivion if they do not. Obviously, the average case is much less hard on the batteries and they will perform well much longer.

    This is no surprise at all to anybody with some actual insight into the technology and the legal situation. None at all.

  • There is no doubt an EV battery can rack up hundreds of thousands of miles on a single battery. I very much doubt they would last 20 years. Battery warranties are generally half that at remaining capacity levels below the 80% standard.

    • Based on what? Motors often last 20 years despite typical warranties in the 5-7 year range.

      I recently saw a 20 year old Rav4 EV listed for sale that was fully working. There are original Tesla Roadsters coming up on that milestone (though those did have a replacement program in the mid 2010s).

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