Data Analyst Spoils the World's Biggest Song Vote 165
littlekorea writes "A data analyst has successfully predicted the top ten songs of the world's biggest song contest — the Triple J Hottest 100 — by extrapolating voting intentions fans had posted on Twitter and Facebook. Nick Drewe's Warmest 100 list closely mimicked the Hottest 100 results, predicting the top three in correct order and predicting 92 of the most popular 100 songs."
How is this spoiling? (Score:5, Informative)
Let's talk about this again if statisticians end up actually influencing the vote through their data analysis. Otherwise, let it go.
Re:How is this spoiling? (Score:5, Funny)
That's like saying that Nate Silver or Andrew Tanenbaum spoiled the presidential election... Just because they looked at the signs and figured out how others were going to vote doesn't mean that they spoiled anything.
Let's talk about this again if statisticians end up actually influencing the vote through their data analysis. Otherwise, let it go.
Have you considered that maybe Nate Silver made his predictions and then God rearranged the Universe to make it so? Thus, Nate Silver spoiled the election (or is God).
Re:How is this spoiling? (Score:5, Funny)
If his prediction was important enough to warrant rearranging the universe, then perhaps the Republican fielded a worse candidate than we could have possibly feared...
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Godwin-ing this shit now: God didn't rearrange the universe to avoid HITLER's election.
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How do you know He didn't? Hitler never won a majority vote until he outlawed the other parties. It was alliances with the other parties that allowed him to become Chancellor. The election prior to passing the Enabling Act his party only won 44% of the vote. The Enabling Act required a 2/3rds vote (it passed with 83%). The cowardice of the other parties to stand up to Hitler is a major reason he was able to get so much absolute power so quickly.
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Hate to break it to you, but I don't even know the last time any party in the UK won 44% of the vote. This is how most of the world works - only the US has quite such an exclusive 2 party system.
Just found some stats here [politicsresources.net]. Last time a party got more than 44% was 1970, then only just.
Note that this page also shows how flawed first past the post is. In the '83 election, the percentages of the top 3 party's vote were 42, 27, 25. The respective percentage shares of seats in the house of commons were 61, 32,
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He let his own son slowly die on a cross.... Killing his chosen people wouldn't exactly be unprecedented....
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Perhaps things would have been much worse without Hitler. Stephen Fry wrote an amusing book based on this idea.
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Perhaps things would have been much worse without Hitler.
Of course things would have been much worse - if ww2 didn't happen my grandmother would have married the first person she was engaged to rather than my grandfather, and I would never have been born.
A world without me would suck the big one!
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Thanks.
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WWI happened mainly because of colonialism an it doesn't stop there; we can recurse into this until the neolithic.
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But the only way colonialism was a cause of WWI was treaties and alliances made when splitting up the world that didn't work for more domestic conflicts. The way you can be sure that there wasn't some underlying greater cause is that the US took longer to enter (like WWII) and the side wasn't e
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It would be more fair and accurate to say that WWI created the conditions which allowed Hitler to capitalize on the fears and emotions of a bankrupt nation.
As a number of fiction authors have toyed with, if Hitler didn't come around, someone else would have. Germany was hurt by the WWI ending. It would be easy for a country in that state to pick a fight. The unifier wasn't that big of a deal, and had it been someone more sane, Germany could have done better in WWII.
We can argue until the cows come home about whether or not someone else would have stepped in to fill his shoes had he been killed, etc. but in the end we simply have no way of ever knowing for sure.
Are you honestly asserting that if Hitler had never been born that WWII wouldn't have happened?
People are hinting that Japan may be starting WWIII by putting up its own satellites so it's not de
Re:How is this spoiling? (Score:5, Interesting)
Nietzsche didn't influence national socialism. His works were very selectively edited by his sister who was a Nazi to try to give a philosophical background to and synch with Naziism. Nietzsche was very critical of antisemitism and nationalism in his writings. If Nietzsche would have been alive when the Nazis came to power, he would have been one of the first ones targeted.
Re:How is this spoiling? (Score:5, Funny)
Have you considered that maybe Nate Silver made his predictions and then God rearranged the Universe to make it so? Thus, Nate Silver spoiled the election (or is God).
When you do things right, people won't be sure you've done anything at all.
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Impossible. The only reason we had an election to begin with, or a Nate Silver to discuss the results before they happen, is because Morgan Freeman narrated it in advance [youtube.com].
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That's like saying that Nate Silver or Andrew Tanenbaum spoiled the presidential election... Just because they looked at the signs and figured out how others were going to vote doesn't mean that they spoiled anything.
Actually, it does.
Let's talk about this again if statisticians end up actually influencing the vote through their data analysis. Otherwise, let it go.
What would influencing the vote have to do with it? I think you're misreading what it meant by "spoil" in this context: to reveal the ending early, which is exactly what they did.
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Another weapon for the AGW arsenal... climate scientists are 'spoiling' the future!
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I think we're talking 'spoiled' in the sense of 'spoilers follow!', not in the sense of 'ruined'.
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Actually, statistical predictions CAN influence voting results considerably. Independent of the system used, for different reasons.
Especially first-past-the-post systems are prone to influence from predictions. If the statistics tell that candidate A is leading with 90%, a lot of people might consider not going to the polls, considering their vote is moot either way, whether they like him or not. Not too long ago, election predictions foretold a landslide victory for a certain party over here which nearly t
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Now how exactly would you suggest to set up a test that proves scientifically that there is an influence? There is no sensible way for that. One can only draw conclusions from declared intention and outcome, and ponder the influence if there is a mismatch. If 10% of the population declare their support for a certain party but only 1% votes for them, one has to assume that the reason was that the other 9% didn't think they'd make it into parliament.
Well, maybe the various Pirate Parties all over the globe wi
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Nope - it's like saying someone spoiled American Idol or Eurovision by crunching social media data.
Difference here is that the social media implementation was designed to share votes with Facebook friends only and the analysis involved 'hacking' the URLs ...
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I understand that it came as a bit of a shocker to some people who refused to listen, but that's the wonderful thing about Reality - it's that which still remains when you stop fantasizing about it.
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Yeah, sure. Next thing you're gonna tell me is that Darth Vader is Luke Skywalker's father.
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You're right, but you forgot you're reading Slashdot, where the mantra is "Politicise and Americanize as fast as possible (albeit exaggerated) !!!! and let 'em find out the truth if they RTFA." Or in this case, just the summary.
TFTFY
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I don't have a problem with some esoteric stuff on
Re:Two things. (Score:4, Informative)
1. Your cynicism is getting the better of you. This is a valid news for nerds story, about how data analysis successfully predicted the majority of a list meant to be kept secret. The story would have been interesting, had it come from any part of the world.
2. The Triple J station is known for playing many alternative and unknown artists. It's a government funded station, but editorially independent from government by law. Your list of known songs/singers/artists are likely influenced by your regional tastes, and also commercial interests of the stations you listen to. These would not match up with an alternative music station.
2a. Have a listen to Thrift Shop, the song that made #1. I'm not generally one for hip-hop, but I liked it. Great lyrics, has some good things to say about fashion labels and stylistic expectations. Interestingly enough, the song is independent of commercial labels, and has had great success in US/Canada/Australia/New Zealand.
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My wife plays that song. I find the lyrics to be campy humor. Not bad, in the same way that an R-rated Weird Al song would not be "bad". For reference:
Hey, Macklemore! Can we go thrift shopping?
What, what, what, what... [x7]
Bada, badada, badada, bada... [x9]
[Hook:]
I'm gonna pop some tags
Only got twenty dollars in my pocket
I - I - I'm hunting, looking for a come-up
This is fucking awesome
[Verse 1:]
Nah, Walk up to the club like, "What up, I got a big cock!"
I'm so pumped about some shit from the thrift shop
Ice
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Of course the AC missed the point and goes the easy troll ...
Australia is a western country by most measures - linguistic, cultural, political, economic - if not geographic ... hence why the OP did not say western hemisphere.
In the early AM hours of North America and Europe, Australia is one of the few western country with a significant online population ... so yes on a 24hr forum/site, you will get Australian stories when Australia is one for few nation that are awake!
Also there is a larger proportion on t
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The OP makes a good point? I'm not so sure of that.
In the last month, there have been 11 stories tagged with the "Australia" label. Second from the top, the stories have been about: the Pirate Party being registered, monitoring body temperature of firefighters, potential cure for aids discovered, major telescope threatened by bushfire, spy agency seeking permission to hack third-party computers, R18+ classification for video games, insulin's structure being cracked, orbital pictures of bushfires, drones u
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I've been listening to triplej for about 20 years and as usual there are plenty of songs I do not recognize in the list. That is part of the deal with triplej, no comfort zone of classics and far more new music than you can follow.
There will be a few teeny pop songs in the list but if you listen to a few, you'll see that the range is far more diverse and none of the usual pop artists.
Over the past few years triplej has been doing a lot of work to foster local music, their site http://www.triplejunearthed.co [triplejunearthed.com]
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1. This "story" is on Slashdot only because of the Australia connection.
Only thing worse than editors: people constantly bitching "I'm not interested thus this story shouldn't have been posted."
Some of us actually work in data analysis and find it interesting. Sorry everything can't be about the wonders of your roommates' basement.
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And you're a "jjj" douchewad fanboy of the worst fucking kind. Where does the OP/GP criticize the station. He's merely stating that he hasn't heard of any of these songs and artists. Probably because he's old and treasures his ZZ Top collection or some shit like that.
TV Dinners, If only I could flag her down, slip inside my sleeping bag, you mean that shit. I like the old shit deep purple led zepplin, the saints, hunters, radiators - they played the other night. Its not about old vs new, it's good vs crap (which jjj play a fair share of crap), git it? boy
Yeesh. Kids today.
don't make me spank you, get off my lawn
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Not being familiar with the music is one thing, but if you have never even heard of Kanye West then you're not paying any attention to music whatsoever.
You should check out The Black Keys. Not only are they on this list so you could feel a little more in touch, they make music that could have come from the 70s.
hahah - that's great, I like em both actually. I've never been "in touch" and neither are you because your posting to me on slashdot - which crack me up more because you're an AC and probably moderating.
no, I only know what I like. I lost count of how many concerts I'd been to at 50 when I was in my late teens and I still see heaps of bands with all the other people that don't know what "in touch" means. Them crooked vulture, Mars volta, You am I, Bluejuice, Sneaky sound system, dizzy rascal. Thanks for
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if you have never even heard of Kanye West then you're not paying any attention to music whatsoever.
Or, perhaps, he is only paying attention to good music. Life's too short to follow every faddy, financially successful attention whore.
k... (Score:4, Informative)
did you even look at the page?
He goes very much out of his way not to spoil it, but giving you half a dozen very large warnings.
This just in (Score:2)
Asking people how they're going to vote determined to have predictive value in how they will vote, says latest Slashdot article. Please tag with #obvious and #slownewsday. :/
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How about another look at it, The hottest 100, a vote that has been carried out for more than 20 years has for the first time been accurately predicted due to the proliferation of social media the the facility from Triple J to have a one click button to upload your votes to {insert social network here}.
This actually IS news. Walk around the streets and ask people what they voted for (if they remember at all) would have given you such a statistically insignificant result you would have trouble predicting the
Re:This just in (Score:5, Funny)
Sorry Alphatel, but we've never heard of you either. However we do deeply care about your opinion regarding our radio station. Please tell us more.
Regards,
Australia.
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Sorry Australia, but I've never heard of Triple J nor do I care what you think the top 100 songs are.
Australia has heard of you, however, but doesn't care. They're too busy trying to keep the dingos from eating the babies.
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Good grief, that joke got old back in '89 (before what's-her-name left the news, even). What's it doing still kicking around?
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Now back to reading Xanth...
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Are you sick? It isn't a joke, it actually happened - someones baby was taken and killed by a native dog. Hardy-fucking-har. Honestly, the freaks you meet on the Internet :-(
A ferret4 ate my baby.
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A drop bear stole my ute!
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in USA used as comedic phrase in espisodes in both the Simpson's and Seinfeld. that's the only references most US people will know
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Sorry Australia, but I've never heard of Triple J nor do I care what you think the top 100 songs are.
Australia has heard of you, however, but doesn't care. They're too busy trying to keep the dingos from eating the babies.
and listening to the hottest 100 on the beach
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But you felt the need to comment because....???????
You must be real fun at all your friends parties.
Oh..... sorry.
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If the polls indicate that your candidate is winning you might just stay home and not trouble yourself to vote.
No, people either vote or they don't. You might try to rationalise your apathy and laziness, but when it comes down to it you're just apathetic and lazy. if you can't be arsed to vote.
subject (Score:2)
I've never even heard of any of the top 25, and none of the top 66 are in my Google Music playlists. I guess that makes me old.
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That's because this is a list from Australia. It demonstrates how much control the regional record industries have over what people "want" to hear.
Re:subject (Score:5, Informative)
I am an Aussie and love good Aussie music and I haven't heard of any of the songs in the top 20.
In saying that, I should point out to the foreigners here that Triple J isn't exactly mainstream (Triple J started out as a station to play all the artists that commercial radio was ignoring and still does so today in some cases)
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What?
- Thrift Shop (the #1 song) has been played on Aussie radio for 3 months and was #1 in the ARIA charts a few weeks ago
- Little Talks was #7 and is still #14 now
- Sweet Nothing peaked at #2
- I Love it peaked at #3
- Feel the Love peaked at #3
And Same Love is the current #1 single, so make that at least 6 songs!
So at least 30% have been Top 10 songs and you haven't heard any of them???
One of my favourite stations (Score:2)
I'm a Canadian and I listen to Triple J *because* it isn't exactly mainstream. I've been listening for about 10 years, and it's really coloured my musical tastes.
Oddly enough, they play Canadian artists who don't even get airplay in Canada. (Commercial radio here is garbage.)
for those who didn't RTFA or listen to Triple J (Score:2)
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So much for biggest song contest. I don't doubt there is *a* metric by which it's the biggest, but this didn't spring to mind when I read the headline.
Triple J has one of, if not the, largest listenership numbers of any station in the world. It's a single station broadcast nationwide and the voting attracts international interest.
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Not what the OP said ...
On a city-by-city basis JJJ is typically #3 across the key demographics of 18-39 ie eliminating the AM talk stuff ... as a single national station, its national audience is larger than any individual single-city station.
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So much for biggest song contest. I don't doubt there is *a* metric by which it's the biggest, but this didn't spring to mind when I read the headline.
one and a half million people voted. Is there a bigger song contest put there?
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So much for biggest song contest. I don't doubt there is *a* metric by which it's the biggest, but this didn't spring to mind when I read the headline.
one and a half million people voted. Is there a bigger song contest put there?
The Eurovision.
Yeah, but the Eurovision is for people with talent.
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Yeah, but the Eurovision is for people with talent.
You have clearly never watched the Eurovision.
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From this comment, can we infer that #67, a track entitled "On Top" by musical artist "Flume" (featuring guest artist "T-Shirt") is on your playlist?
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This surprises me with the number of people saying the same ... and assuming most are US-based.
Just looking at the top 10:
Mackelmore was #1 Billboard Hot 100
Of Monster and Men hit #25 ( and #1 on the alternative charts)
Mumford & Sons have been all over the charts / awards
Tame Impala won Rolling Stone album of the year
Frank Ocean has 6 Grammy nominations on the go
Then there are other 'mainstream' artists:
- Calvin Harris
- The Black Keys
- Skrillex
I suspect it is less about age and more about:
- American mus
Triple J? World's largest? umm.... Eurovision? (Score:1)
Anyone ever heard of it, it's only like all of Europe (and Russia, and much of the middle east)
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Anyone ever heard of it, it's only like all of Europe (and Russia, and much of the middle east)
Never heard of it.
TripleJ Hottest 100 is actually a poll to vote in the top 100 songs of the year. I think the Eurovision is a different thing. If TFS was written by someone with the slightest bit of competence we wouldn't be having this conversation.
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Seriously. When I read the title, it was obvious it meant Eurovision. But oddly, it doesn't. Eurovision must get at least 250M votes, right? Possibly even a billion.
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title:
'Data Analyst Spoils the World's Biggest Song Vote'
In Eurovision you vote for songs. And it's far bigger.
Title wrong. End of story. Drop mike on floor.
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Oh, and all the songs on Eurovision are complete crap. There's that too.
Hmm, that actually rings true for both Eurovision and Triple J's programming. Watched some of the "Rage Hottest 100 Countdown" last night. Frikkin' passive aggressive/passive passive indie drivel. Except for the Black Keys. Enjoyed that one.
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Heard of it?- yes, but only because I am from Australia. (BTW, I am highly suspicious of how some artists get airtime on this government funded station. Getting your stuff played means a lot commercially here, as the station is hugely popular and can be heard pretty much anywhere on the continent. There is no equivalent of this station in the US).
Having said all of that, there is no way that this is the "World Biggest Song Vote".
Just my $AU 0.02c worth
Wait til Google gets started on their graph search (Score:2)
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You'll be able to predict your children's future. And safely give up the sociopaths for adoption.
So you're saying you believe the children are our future let them lead and let them show the way show them all the beauty they possess inside?
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Yes.
Yes I am.
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Yes.
Yes I am.
that's a beautiful thing to share, it's the greatest love of all
Social media (Score:3)
Whilst listening to the countdown yesterday I was pondering the idea that the warmest 100 is flawed because it only takes into account the votes from people who think the rest of the world cares about their every thought. Turns out I was wrong... I guess I'm a bit older than the Triple J target demographic these days - I wasn't 20 years ago though dammit!
Next year i'm posting my votes on facebook, just to throw it out a little bit :)
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Whilst listening to the countdown yesterday I was pondering the idea that the warmest 100 is flawed because it only takes into account the votes from people who think the rest of the world cares about their every thought. Turns out I was wrong...
No you were right. The only thing you got wrong is the assumptions about how many people will click a "share" button on a website. The fact twitter exists at all, and that everyone from a gangsta rapper, to the pope, and ages between a 10 year old girl and a grandma use the service should be an indication of just how much people like to share their pointless lives.
Way more than half of twitter users are over the age of 35.
The votes are in! (Score:5, Insightful)
And the winner [youtube.com] is ....
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Ouch, got me :P
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Does it count as one, if I was thinking "please let it be that" before I clicked?
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Really? He made the top 100 of this list with such an old song? Wow. Good for him. It is pretty catchy, I have to admit.
He did host rage recently,
So obvious (Score:1)
When most songs and music is now generated by "artists' directed by agents telling them what to do and sing based on analytics, is it that surprising that analytics predicts the outcome of analytics produced crap???
I never heard of this poll (Score:2)
But a a few months ago there were ads asking me to vote for
"One Man, One Woman"
sp I guess there must have been a "Favorite song by ABBA" poll on at that time.
I still preferred Fernando
Hardly "spoils" (Score:2)
You have to scroll down the length of an encyclopedia just to get to the various lists of entries all the while the site is telling you that you probably shouldn't ruin it for yourself. It's not like the guys who screamed "Dumbledore's dead!" at midnight book releases.
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Dumbledore's dead. Damn you, I was just getting ready to start reading book three.
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Dumbledore's dead. Damn you, I was just getting ready to start reading book three.
*FALSE SPOILER ALERT*
Just wait til you get the last book and it turns out the whole series has been a dream in the head of a gay Asperger's kid in Ohio.
Will be gamed .... (Score:1)
That is, if Triple J don't take an entirely different route
Comparison chart with commentary (Score:3, Informative)
For a slightly more detailed comparison of Warmest 100 vs. Hottest 100, here's a chart a mate did which includes some commentary:
http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/WarmesttoHottest1002012/Dashboard [tableausoftware.com]
He didn't spoil anything (Score:2)
His website contained spoilers. It warned you every 10 songs that you were going to spoil the hottest 100. Between number 11 and 10 it warned you several times, 3 full vertical screen heights of warnings are given.
The only people who spoiled the worlds biggest song vote are those who read the results, oh and the shithouse media who ran what number one was going to be in the first line of an article.
World's biggest song contest ? (Score:2)
Surely can't beat the Eurovision in terms of biggest song contest ?
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Not a song contest which is a vote on a small number of contestants ... It is a music poll based on music released on the last 12 months.
Eurovision and every TV talent contest would have more votes - but that is not what is being discussed.
I am the author of the ITnews article. (Score:4, Insightful)
So yeah. Hi.
I wrote some more detailed commentary on my blog, if you want more details than would fit in a short news article.
http://www.eigenmagic.com/2013/01/24/will-the-warmest-100-prove-a-scorcher/ [eigenmagic.com] and http://www.eigenmagic.com/2013/01/26/warmest-100-updates/ [eigenmagic.com]
It's nearly midnight here, but if I get a chance in the morning, I'll post up some more info including the code I used to replicate the Warmest 100's methods, and some scatterplots showing how the accuracy of the predictions got better the closer things got to number one, similar to the tableau link from diodegod.
Statistics is the new black. :)
Mate has been doing this quietly for years (Score:2)
... because you can bet on this vote. He has won tens of thousands of dollars, beating the bookies every year for the last few years. He thought this whole thing was pretty funny but hopes it doesn't affect his chances next year.
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WTF? What list are you reading?