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Google IPO Swami 255

The Google IPO Swami writes: "I'm running an experiment and Slashdot readers would be good contributors. As you may know, Google recently announced that they will be using a unique dutch auction structure to price shares of their IPO. Instead of having the underwriters determine the opening price, the price will be set by the demand of investors that register to participate. I'm interested in how well the public can estimate this demand and the price of the shares to be offered. I'm giving away free shares in Google to find out. The person that comes closest to estimating the opening and closing price of the stock on the IPO date will win shares in the company."
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Google IPO Swami

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  • Who knows? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by LostCluster ( 625375 ) * on Sunday May 16, 2004 @05:35PM (#9169046)
    One thing that this data will almost certainly show is that data entered today will we totally wild guesses and be totally disconnected from the real factors that determine the IPO price.

    Macro-economic factors such as interest rates, price of oil, unemployment, and who the US President will be on the date of the IPO are still unknown. Hey, even the date of the IPO is still an unknown!

    Bookmark the site and revisit it as Google gets further along the road to IPO. That's the only way to win at this game unless you're an extremely good guesser.
    • And it doesn't matter how early you guess if someone else guesses the same value...

      "Ties will be settled by a random drawing."

      On the other hand, guess now and then guess again later if you think you were wrong.

      "You can enter multiple times, but only your last estimate will be considered. Previous entries will be discarded if you re-submit your picks."
    • Re:Who knows? (Score:5, Interesting)

      by in7ane ( 678796 ) on Sunday May 16, 2004 @05:55PM (#9169172)
      No, no, no, you got it all wrong. Winning is certain:

      Two 0-999 ranges
      i.e. 1000*1000 possible combinations Need 1,000,000 submissions to 'win'

      Spamgourmet.com allows dynamic forwarding


      Here I come!

      /wonders if a few minutes to write the script is worth it for a few shares...
    • by mosel-saar-ruwer ( 732341 ) on Sunday May 16, 2004 @06:43PM (#9169398)

      I submitted this a while back, and it was predictably rejected, but if you really care about the Google IPO, take a gander at this article:
      The Bear's Lair: The Google gross-out
      Martin Hutchinson
      May 5, 2005

      ...This is all just an everyday story of tech company greed, of course -- it makes you pity the poor fools who buy the issue on a $25 billion valuation (unless they're lucky enough to sell out fast to even greater -- and soon poorer -- fools.) Of course, their chances of selling out for a quick profit, usually pretty good in a tech sector IPO, are negated in this one because Google has chosen to throw out nearly 300 years of equity market wisdom (the South Sea Bubble share issues in 1720 were done the Wall Street way, and not Google's way) and offer shares by means of a "Dutch auction"...

      Indeed, there's something uniquely unpleasant in the hippie rhetoric with which Google surrounds its activities. "We aspire to make Google an institution that makes the world a better place" we are told in the early part of the S-1 statement (the only part that many journalists appear to have read!) "Google is not a conventional company" ... and, in an inspired moment of Bill-and-Ted-speak "Don't be evil.."

      http://washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20040505-1 14352-5040r.htm [washingtontimes.com]

    • You assume that stock prices are based in reality.
    • Re:Who knows? (Score:3, Informative)

      by mveloso ( 325617 )
      Dude, don't you know anything about the stock market? Fundamentals make no difference. See:


      for a real-world view of the market. He says it better than I could. Scroll down to the "Why do people fall in love with stocks" entry. Here's the direct link:

      http://www.blogmaverick.com/entry/98171364703023 36 /

      Enjoy and learn!
  • by Anonymous Coward on Sunday May 16, 2004 @05:37PM (#9169051)
    Martha Stewart has some "special" information she passed in to me.
    • I wouldn't take her advice. Afterall, the "insider info" that she was convicted of covering up was a tip to sell the stock shortly before news that the main product of IMClone was about to suffer a setback at the FDA.

      However, the drug wasn't dead. And in fact, it overcame that bad study to eventually be approved. Martha's decision to sell the stock in the long run turned out to be a mistake. She would have made money if she kept the shares between then and now...
      • You could have made more if you sold it all, then bought the same number of shares back after it tanked (before it recovered) -- In general, this is fairly safe when you have reason to believe a stock is about to tank, since you're only risking a small portion of your winnings on the boundback.
        • You could have made more if you sold it all, then bought the same number of shares back after it tanked (before it recovered) -- In general, this is fairly safe when you have reason to believe a stock is about to tank, since you're only risking a small portion of your winnings on the boundback.

          That would presume Martha had more info than she actually had. She just knew the stock was headed down... she didn't quite know why.
  • Why be vague on this detail? Is the reward a fixed number of shares, a dollar figure translated into stock, or what?
  • First and Last (Score:2, Interesting)

    by stecoop ( 759508 )
    The person that comes closest to estimating the opening and closing

    You mean the person that guess the first buying bid of the day and the price of the last buying bid of the day... I bet the first one will be higher than the last one. I like the 20 - 80 from the first poster but has it backwards. I bet its 80 and 20.
    • My GUESS...

      more like $80 opening, $40 closing by the end of the first week of Google trading, mid $20s, where it will stablize.. Or, if we geeks have anything to say about it... $60.22 (think about it...) or $31.415 (decimals shifted to adjust to a possible real world value of G00G stock.) This is like a dotcom, but they have been "developing" for a bit longer, so they might not crash 'n burn maybe.
  • by LostCluster ( 625375 ) * on Sunday May 16, 2004 @05:39PM (#9169074)
    The contest entry form has some interesting subtexts to them...
    3. Do you intend to place a bid for shares in the Google IPO? (Yes/No)
    4. What price will you bid for Google shares? Enter 0 if you do not intend to bid. The value must be between 0 and 999, inclusive.
    5. How many shares do you intend to bid for at this price?
    Enter 0 if you do not intend to bid

    There's the true motivation for this exercise. The person running this contest clearly states on his site that he's going to try to sell the results of the survey to people who want to have some way of peering into a crystal ball and determining what people would be willing to pay for Google before the dutch auction price is determined.

    The day-trader investors who ususually love IPOs hate this Dutch Auction system because it gives them less room to try to buy up the early shares and then sell them the same day to people who wished they had gotten in on the IPO and are now willing to pay more to get their shares at market prices. (Smarter investors would place a limit order rather than a market order and just wait for the day-one spike to wear off and the price to be more in line with reality.)

    11. Would you like to be contacted by someone to help you bid for shares in the Google IPO? You will receive one email if you say Yes. (Yes/No)
    Talk about "highly targetted e-mail marketing list." That's sure to go to the highest bidder too...

    This guy most certainly has a right to make a buck... we just should be smart enough consumers to realize that he's doing so by running this, and possibly withhold our information if we deem it too valuable to hand over.
    • by Sanity ( 1431 ) * on Sunday May 16, 2004 @07:24PM (#9169586) Homepage Journal
      This guy most certainly has a right to make a buck...
      But should he be aided and abetted by Slashdot?

      Whatever you feel, slashdot is playing a significant role in giving this effort publicity - and, to be honest, I am forced to ask whether this is stretching the "News for nerds" thing a bit far; Sure, Google may use Linux, and they may have a clever search algorithm, but does that justify blow by blow coverage of their efforts to raise more capital?

  • Abuse? (Score:5, Interesting)

    by vondo ( 303621 ) * on Sunday May 16, 2004 @05:41PM (#9169089)
    It looks to me like the only piece of info needed to register is an e-mail address. With people here capable of supplying thousands of e-mail addresses each, I think you're looking for abuse.
    • Re:Abuse? (Score:5, Insightful)

      by danharan ( 714822 ) on Sunday May 16, 2004 @05:49PM (#9169141) Journal
      Why should he care? He's just trying to figure out what a large number of people are willing to pay for Google shares, so he can game the auction.
      • Why should he care? He's just trying to figure out what a large number of people are willing to pay for Google shares, so he can game the auction.

        The problem is that anyone could come up with thousands of figures instead of only one number they believe it is going to be the price. This would not help in getting some good statistic numbers.

  • Mike Hawk's guess (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Mike Hawk ( 687615 ) on Sunday May 16, 2004 @05:42PM (#9169092) Journal
    I guess the price will be somewhere near $250 per share on the day of the IPO and down around $1.94 about 4 years later. [yahoo.com] Be careful when investing in those tech stocks, you can get seriously burned. But this is just a guess, IANACPA or investment advisor. YMMV, void where prohibited.
  • by JeffSh ( 71237 )
    we need one more story mentioning some form of dutch for the trifecta.

    how often does that happen.
  • by Seraphim_72 ( 622457 ) on Sunday May 16, 2004 @05:43PM (#9169101)
    I have a get rich quick scheme and I need your help. Those helping me can be at the bottom of my pyramid scheme, and will get millions of dollars, 3" of wang and all the heart meds you can count with a Cray. Just invoke my ip and I will make you a nigerian just for clicking. I promise....really
    • Excellent. I happen to be a member of a board of a charitable foundation which invests in pyramid schemes. Please, sir, kindly send me a picture of your crew with miniature bridge sculptures balanced on their heads (this is important as it will show proof to the Troll Charitable Donation Foundation of your commitment), and I will wire the money as soon as possible!
    • Your ideas are interesting. Please subscribe me to your newsletter.
  • Opens at $23.50, closes at $67.38.
    • Opens at $23.50, closes at $67.38.

      You forget the all important "a little over $1 a share after 6 months, about to be delisted."
    • I don't understand why everyone seems to think the price will go up on the first day. The auction is designed so the that initial price is as high as people are willing to pay. This means that the price can only go down at least in the short term.
      • The auction is designed so the that initial price is as high as people are willing to pay.

        Not necessarily. There is also an incentive to try to get the stock as cheaply as possible, meaning that people will bid the price they *hope* to pay for the stock. Once the auction is completed, I am sure that there will be many out there who bid too low in the hopes that their orders would be covered, but who are willing to buy a lesser number of shares for a higher price in order not to be locked out of this "gol

  • I've got first dubs on $37.11 to open and $103.33 to close. Best of luck and may the best guesser win.
  • Google = genius (Score:4, Insightful)

    by Anonymous Coward on Sunday May 16, 2004 @05:44PM (#9169106)
    Great, let the people decide the stock prices. That way I'm sure Google stock will start out way overpriced.. giving the employee shareholders a grab at an awful lot of dough. After all, everybody loves Google. People have a tendency to use their emotions instead of logic to make purchases. The question is, will Google make money to stay afloat?
    • Blockquoth the poster:

      Great, let the people decide the stock prices.

      Um, long term, isn't that what "the market" is? What's wrong with allowing market forces to come into play earlier than usual? Other than preventing early bidders from reaping unsustainable and unjustified rewards...
    • Re:Google = genius (Score:4, Insightful)

      by RedWizzard ( 192002 ) on Sunday May 16, 2004 @08:56PM (#9169963)
      The question is, will Google make money to stay afloat?
      Google make plenty of money now. They made about $100M profit last year on revenue of nearly $1B. There is no reason to expect that to drop after the IPO. The real question is will Google's profits match the expectations generated by their share price?
    • Re:Google = genius (Score:3, Informative)

      by iabervon ( 1971 )
      The idea is that stock prices tend to start out unreasonably low (due to the price being set by people who agree with each other to get a good deal on the stock), shoot up towards the market valuation, and then go higher on momentum and speculation. Then they drop back towards the market valuation when the novelty subsides.

      Google's idea is to arrange for the stock to start at the market valuation, such that it will probably stay flat after the IPO. Since the system is engineered to prevent a bubble, it dis
  • Guaranteed skew up (Score:5, Insightful)

    by shoppa ( 464619 ) on Sunday May 16, 2004 @05:44PM (#9169107)
    The method of awarding a fixed number of shares (ten) in this contest guarantees that it will skew upwards the price of the stock.

    If you made the choice of betting on $1, you would get $10 worth of stock. If you made the choice of betting on $200, you'd get $2000 worth of stock.

    Now obviously you don't want to bet too high because if you do then you won't be right at all. But you will tend to bet on the high end, rather than the low end.

    P.S. Everything I know about Economics I learned from The Price Is Right.

    • by kookbox ( 448196 )
      You think the fixed number of shares being awarded in this look-like-a-scam-walks-like-a-scam contest will raise the price of the stock in the real-life Dutch auction? That's asinine.

      Like I learned from Echelon, the map is not the territory.
  • Higher price (Score:5, Insightful)

    by bobthemuse ( 574400 ) on Sunday May 16, 2004 @05:45PM (#9169120)
    I wonder if the initial price will end up higher than this system was designed to determine.

    From my understanding, people bid on it at any price point. When they decide to create X shares, the top bidders will receive those shares, but will pay the price point of the lowest bidder. If this is true, what's to stop me from bidding $500/share to guarantee I get to take part in the IPO? Since I won't have to pay this price, and I probably won't increase the per-share price significantly, an individual doing this could easily be guaranteed as many shares as they like. What happens when a large number of people realize this and it artificially increases the price?

    Is there something to prevent this? Is this a desired action (maybe from Google's perspective)? Or am I just completely missing something here....?
    • Re:Higher price (Score:5, Informative)

      by LostCluster ( 625375 ) * on Sunday May 16, 2004 @05:59PM (#9169194)
      What happens when a large number of people realize this and it artificially increases the price?

      If too many people bid $500/share... then the cutoff price will turn out being something like $400/share, which will likely be artificially high considering the true value of Google.

      You'll pay $400/share to get a ton of shares, but then only be able to sell them at their true value which the market will quickly realize is in the sub-$100s. What a way to lose 3/4 of your money!

      That's the key of this Dutch Auction system. Instead of the lucky few with the right connections getting a pre-market chance to buy at a lower-than-fair-value price, this takes a stab at determining the fair value before the first shares are distributed. If too many people try to drive the IPO price upwards, everyone will find themselves holding shares that they'll only be able to sell at a loss.

      The "I'm smarter-than-you, so I can make a quick buck off this..." gang is really better off sitting this one out.
    • Re:Higher price (Score:5, Informative)

      by smallpaul ( 65919 ) <paul AT prescod DOT net> on Sunday May 16, 2004 @05:59PM (#9169195)
      Let's say that the absolute maximum price you are willing to pay is $100/share. What is the incentive to bid a penny higher? Of course you could big much higher just to "guarantee" that you get stock but the goal is not to guarantee that you get stock. The goal is to get stock at a price that makes that stock a good investment. If you bid $500.00 and actually pay $100.00 when you believed that the stok was only a good investment at $60.00 then you are out $40.00 bucks. You should have bid $60.00.

      Imagine that you did bid $60.00. Maybe other people will get stock and you won't, but if you believe that they are overpaying then from your point of view they are suckers, not winners. Remember that the goal of the game is not to get Google stock. It is to PROFIT from owning Google stock. If you bid high and get the stock and then watch it slide downward for years after you have lost, not won.

      • ...You are out forty dollars bucks? Department of redundancy department?
      • What is the incentive to bid a penny higher? Of course you could big much higher just to "guarantee" that you get stock but the goal is not to guarantee that you get stock.

        Here you are thinking of investors... but have you considred how many people that would want shares not as an investment but just to have?

        I thought it was funny the survey was limited at 99 (though I guessed kind of low I think).
      • ...when you believed that the stok was only a good investment

        As if `investors' will be involved with the stock at the IPO. The only folks who will be buying/selling these things are gamblers (day-traders). Most investors will wait for a while (like maybe a year, or a few) for the price to settle down a bit...

        To paraphrase Dogbert: `Fools shouldn't have money.' So let them all buy Google at $100 and get burned... :-)
    • what's to stop me from bidding $500/share to guarantee I get to take part in the IPO?

      Your fear that everyone else will bid $501, that the auction will settle at $500, and that you will end up payng $500 per share. Although it is true that a single person can submit a high bid to "ensure" getting some shares, the extending this strategy to n-players changes the game. In the end, people reallize that the most sensible strategy is to bid what they really think the shares are worth. Bidding any higher tha
      • But, you are right that this auction will bid up the price because people are not rational -- they tend to be more confident than they should be and they like to "win".

        If that's what you truely expect to happen, then you should bid what you think a Google share is really worth, and if you "lose" the dutch auction, place a limit order to buy the shares when they fall to the price you wanted. If you're right, the Dutch Auction will end up settling at an overvalued price, but then when the "winners" start pl
    • If this is true, what's to stop me from bidding $500/share to guarantee I get to take part in the IPO?

      Nothing, other than if enough other people think the same way you really will end up paying that amount - this may go on to answer your other question "What happens when a large number of people realize this and it artificially increases the price?" And the price (last, mid, bid/ask weighted thickness) will collapse as there are no others to maintain the bid side.
    • Re:Higher price (Score:4, Interesting)

      by DaoudaW ( 533025 ) on Sunday May 16, 2004 @06:05PM (#9169236)

      The IPO clearly states that Google has the right to reject any bid. They specifically say that if they determine that someone is not bidding in good faith--such as submitting a ridiculously high bid--that they won't accept that bid.

      The other problem with your $500 bid is that if a significant number of other bidder think the same as you, you've just bought yourself a $500 stock. Are you willing to take that risk?
    • Well, if you bid $500, this means you are willing to pay up to $500. Period. You might end up paying these, or lower. In a regular auction, you start with a small bet an increase till (a) you have what you want or (b) you have reached your maximum price. In a Dutch auction, you give your maximum price right away, and you will pay the price of the highest bidder among the people who bid too low to have shares.

      Psychological factors aside, a Dutch auction is giving exactly the same results as a regular auctio
    • ..because what's to stop everyone from doing that and end up paying then..?

      i'm not familiar with the dutch system mentioned but i'd figure it be something used on tulip sales and so on maybe ?-) that would make some sense at least anyways and they probably have pretty well smoothed the system at the thousands and thousands of 'em held...
    • The bidding process is set up so they can test the markets pricing. The IPO pricing will be determined by the offers and the underwriters. not by the bidding process. In order to get allocated IPO shares, you need to place a bid. I beleive what they are trying to do is price it as to what the market thinks its worth BEFORE offering it on the exchange. Their hope is to stop the "feeding frenzy" that has happened in the past.

      Read more here:
      http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/29/business / 29GOOGL EAUTCION.html?p
  • by HedonismBot ( 742920 ) <guiller@gmail. c o m> on Sunday May 16, 2004 @05:46PM (#9169130)
    The answer is $42. 42 is always the answer.
  • by chrispyman ( 710460 ) on Sunday May 16, 2004 @05:47PM (#9169131)
    does this person really think that getting wild guesses from thousands of non-investor types will help him determine anything?
  • Prediction (Score:5, Funny)

    by Anonymous Coward on Sunday May 16, 2004 @05:49PM (#9169144)
    Opening Price: 75cents

    MiddayHigh: 150 dollars.

    Closing Price: 25 cents.
  • Google (Score:2, Funny)

    by Anonymous Coward
    Opening: eleventy-billion
    Closing: $Texas
  • by CGP314 ( 672613 )
    I'm interested in how well the public can estimate this demand and the price of the shares to be offered.

    He speaks as though 'the public' is a different kind of public from the one that will be bidding on the shares. Gee, I wonder what use he could possibly have for getting a sampling ahead of time...

    -Colin [colingregorypalmer.net]
  • dutch auction effect (Score:5, Interesting)

    by shibut ( 208631 ) on Sunday May 16, 2004 @05:59PM (#9169199)
    Given the large amount of publicity Google's IPO is getting, and assuming the dutch auction will be pretty open to the public (I trust Google for that), the whole point of the dutch auction is to dampen the first day effect and make sure the company, and not day traders, gets most of the upside the market is willing to give it. Notice the assumptions up top, though... Theory doesn't always translate into real life.

    And another thing: read the prospectus: the wall st guys are still getting a pretty good cut!
  • Look at the SCOX message board on Yahoo finance. They call guessing the next days closing price a WAG - Wild Arse Guess.

    With SCOX stock (SCO groups ticker symbol) it has become a kind of sport ;-)

  • futures market (Score:2, Informative)

    by sybert ( 192766 )
    If you want to get good information on the expected IPO price than you should run a futures market on the opening and closing prices.

    tradesports.com [tradesports.com] has a futures market on the relative price of the IPO. There is another futures market for the time of the IPO [technologyreview.com]

  • As long as we're pitching services, :)

    IPOFinancial.com [ipofinancial.com] is offering a Google IPO report for sale. It's a reasonable price if anyone is considering actually investing in Google's IPO. As many others have said already, the dutch auction system will put a spin on this which not many high profile IPOs have had (at least recently).
  • opening 25.00 closing 73.95
    • opening 25.00 closing 73.95

      If there are that many people willing to pay 73.95 for a share of Google such that at the end of the day that's the lowest price at which a share can be had, then just how in your universe did the Dutch Auction settle at 25?

      Try filping the closing an opening signs and you might be on to something. Google's more likely to crash downward than rocket upward on day one thanks to the Dutch Auction.
  • by mveloso ( 325617 ) on Sunday May 16, 2004 @06:33PM (#9169359)
    One thing I've noticed about the posters is they're not really sure why the dutch auction format is different than the normal IPO process.

    In a normal IPO, the investment bank (or brokerage) sets the price, say, $20, then buys the shares off of the issuing company for $20. Any spread off of that goes directly to the brokerage (or investment bank).

    This is a Bad Deal for the issuing company, because the spread should have gone to the company, not to the brokerage. Think about it: if MSDW priced a stock at $20, but were able to sell at $200, then the issuing company just lost $180! The brokerage, of course, made $180.

    With the dutch auction, there will (or should be) little or no upside to google's stock because the price will be determined by how much people are willing to pay up front. In fact, it will probably drop on the first day, since people confused by this concept will try and flip, leading to a sell imbalance.

    Depending on the shares that are to be issued, I'd say that conservatively google's stock should open at anywhere from $175 +- 8%, and drop about 15%. Why $175? Because -everyone- knows google, and companies that are well-known to the public trade at a premium.

    The other interesting thing about google is that a savvy investor/hacker could manipulate the earnings by writing a virus that sneakily clicked on all those google ads that appear when you do a google search. Voila, instant earnings! With enough spread, you could do millions of hits a day, which translates to millions of dollars a day (thank you, adwords!)

    We'll see.
  • by mveloso ( 325617 ) on Sunday May 16, 2004 @06:38PM (#9169377)
    I just realized - he's doing a bayesian average!


    There was a possibly apochryphal story about this. A plane went down in a large area, and they needed to find it. Nobody really knew what happened to it. The leader of the search team went and asked a bunch of pilots where they thought the plane was, after giving them the course, heading, speed, and whatever data was available.

    Well, they took the answers, narrowed the search area, then found the plane pretty much where the consensus said it would be.

    A bit of thought will give you the reason this might have worked...
    • by Da Fokka ( 94074 ) on Sunday May 16, 2004 @08:17PM (#9169812) Homepage
      Is there any reason to assume that the average consesus also is the expected value of the stock?

      First of all, most people who enter the contest won't be experts like the pilots of your example.

      And next to that, even if they were there still could be situations where this approach would not work. Let's consider the plane example: If there were to probable routes A and B, some experts will choose a crash site along route A and others will choose a crash site along route B. The average of these guesses will be somewhere between routes A and B, on a highly improbable route.

      I'm not saying this guy won't get useful data out of this game. Au contraire, I think it's a smart idea. But I'm not sure whether using the data in the way you suggested to calculate the stock value will yield a reliable estimate.
      • "First of all, most people who enter the contest won't be experts like the pilots of your example."

        experts don't determine prices in the stock market. The irrational public does.
      • They don't have to be experts; they need to be statistically significant to the outcome.

        The original pilot went down where other pilots would have gone down.

        People on slashdot will end up bidding the price the average person on slashdot would end up paying.

        If the person's assumptions are good; that the average bidder on the shares will in the end be statistically comparable to the average slashdotter, then he's got it right.
  • Dear Sir. Your contact information was referred to me by one of my trusted contacts, whose name I am not at liberty to compromize. I would like to approach you with reguards to a profitable Business Proposal, reguarding the transfer of TEN MILLION SHARES OF GOOGLE STOCK. For reasons I am sure you will appreciate, I ask that you keep this commucation confidential, and avoid it falling into the hands of any agents of the Nigerian Secret Police that may be operating in Your area. My name is Mabwano DeLacr
  • Hey guys, I got this great contest going. Just visit my page [googleiposwami.com] and you could win free Google stock if you enter your email address.

    Actual excerpt from the rules: (Note that I'll never share your personal information with anyone, without exeption). I'll give the aggregated information away for educational use and other worthy causes. Email me.

  • by jdkane ( 588293 ) on Sunday May 16, 2004 @06:59PM (#9169474)
    Possible follow-up stories on Slashdot ...

    1. An unprecendented number of Slashdot geeks have started receiving massive amounts of spam after signing up for free Google shares. The email-harvesting www.googleiposwami.co [googleiposwami.co] seemed to be endorsed by /. editors by way of posting the article.

    2. And in other /. news ... /. editors use spam techniques to make money from their subscriber base. CowboyNeal could not be reached at his new off-shore resort for comment.

  • TIAA-Cref does not like Google's share structure, for example. [msn.com] In short, it sounds like they believe Google will not be worth as much unless they take steps to make the management more "accountable" to the public. (Interpret it however you want to.)
    • I trust the founders. I don't trust those investors who are greedy. The complainers can stuff it, IMHO; no one has to buy so much as a share of it.

      Google would not be Google if it had to be a short-term thinking company like the street expects. On the street, a philosophy like Google's is seen as a liability, but it's the primary reason for me to want to buy a chunk and hold onto it long-term. The market can interpret that however it likes, however I intend to put my money where my mouth is; my investmen
  • Have google said what percentage of the company is being sold in this IPO? I can't see that information in their Form S1 filing [sec.gov] but I may be overlooking it.

    The filing says that the maximum aggregate offering is 2.7 billion dollars which presumably caps the launch price, though we don't know what it is capped to until the number of shares being sold is announced.
  • by Mulletproof ( 513805 ) on Sunday May 16, 2004 @09:50PM (#9170197) Homepage Journal
    Google Corp.
    Lagos, Nigeria.

    Attention: The President/CEO
    Confidential Business Proposal

    Dear Sir,

    Having consulted with my colleagues and based on the information gathered from the Nigerian Chambers Of Commerce And Industry, I have the privilege to request your assistance to transfer the sum of $2,700,000,000 (two billion, seven hundred million United States dollars) into your accounts. The above sum resulted from an over-invoiced contract, executed, commissioned and paid for about five years (5) ago by a foreign contractor. This action was however intentional and since then the fund has been in a suspense account at The Central Bank Of Nigeria Apex Bank.

    We are now ready to transfer the fund overseas and that is where you come in. It is important to inform you that as civil servants, we are forbidden to operate a foreign account; that is why we require your assistance. The total sum will be shared as follows: 70% for us, 25% for you and 5% for local and international expenses incidental to the transfer.

    The transfer is risk free on both sides via a process known as 'Dutch Auction' I am an accountant with the Nigerian National Search Engine Corp. If you find this proposal acceptable, we shall require the following documents:

    (a) your banker's name, telephone, account and fax numbers.

    (b) your private telephone and fax numbers ? for confidentiality and easy communication.

    (c) your letter-headed paper stamped and signed.

    Alternatively we will furnish you with the text of what to type into your letter-headed paper, along with a breakdown explaining, comprehensively what we require of you. The business will take us thirty (30) working days to accomplish.

    Please reply urgently.

    Best regards,
    Larry Howgul Abul Arhu Page
  • by $exyNerdie ( 683214 ) on Sunday May 16, 2004 @11:20PM (#9170493) Homepage Journal

    WHO IS of googleiposwami.com

    Tim Ogilvie
    463 Mass Ave
    Apt 4
    Boston, Massachusetts 02118
    United States

    Registered through: GoDaddy.com
    Created on: 29-Apr-04
    Expires on: 29-Apr-06
    Last Updated on: 29-Apr-04

    Administrative Contact:
    Ogilvie, Tim info@googleiposwami.com
    463 Mass Ave
    Apt 4
    Boston, Massachusetts 02118
    United States
    9176866816 Fax --
    Technical Contact:
    Ogilvie, Tim info@googleiposwami.com
    463 Mass Ave
    Apt 4
    Boston, Massachusetts 02118
    United States
    9176866816 Fax --

    Domain servers in listed order:

  • Bluff (Score:3, Insightful)

    by $exyNerdie ( 683214 ) on Sunday May 16, 2004 @11:27PM (#9170520) Homepage Journal
    I'm giving away free shares in Google to find out

    He is so sure he will be able to afford to buy them !!

  • by The Big Ugly ( 738455 ) on Monday May 17, 2004 @01:45AM (#9171011) Homepage
    Google's share price is garunteed to be overvalued. With all the hype surrounding its IPO the price will quickly skyrocket. Any seasoned investor knows that this is one stock to stay away from until things even out. Sure, they is always that chance for a quick profit for day traders. However, the likes of /. readers likely can't come up with or are willing to contribute enough cash to purchase enough shares to make it worth paying the capital gains. My reccomendation, put your money somewhere else. Invest wisely and with a longterm mindset, not because of the hype surround our favorite search engine. But what do I know? I'm just trying to get my brokerage license...
  • Book building (Score:4, Interesting)

    by awol ( 98751 ) on Monday May 17, 2004 @06:30AM (#9171792) Journal
    Look, the whole issue with IPOs in the traditional sense is that NewCo (the company to be listed) goes to a big institutional broker to build a book form them. For this privelige NewCo pays the broker one regular sized bucket load of money. The broker then goes to all their friends (the ones that shift lots of stock for them and pay for all the golfing weekends in spain) and says yould you like to buy a million shares.... They construct a book that is almost always undervalued because other wise they could never get the capital from the investers to build the book in the first place and thus fund NewCo. The stock moves from IPO (Initial Public Offering BTW, how ironic is that!!) to secondary trading and a certain bunch of the book built positions are traded out for a profit (the return on the capital they fronted to buuild the book) as the public buys the stock and the true price is found (note, not value, but price :-).

    Google has short circuited this entire process by offering a dutch (sinlge price) auction which will (hopefully) use a maximal clearing volume algorithm to determine the price at which the maximum volume of stock will clear. The other constratints of this algorithm will determine that at the end of the auction there will be no unsatisfied demand at a price that is better than the one at which the stock traded and as such there will be no immediate price pressure on initial secondary trading. So it should stay around the price at which it opens.

    What will that price be? Well thats a good question, but it Google publishes the state of the book over the weeks before the IPO then we can run the MCV algorithm and determine the "if it opened today" price which is usually a very good indicator of the final price as the IPO time approaches (well obviously really :-).

    It is really a very interesting approach and on that the intitutional brokers will not really like very much at all. I wish them good luck.

Never say you know a man until you have divided an inheritance with him.