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Transportation The Almighty Buck

Is the Tesla Model 3 Actually Going To Cost $50,000? 393

cartechboy writes How low can battery costs go, and how fast? That's the question automakers are dealing with when it comes to the future of electric cars. Tesla is betting big on electric and has already proven many skeptics wrong with its Model S sedan. The company is making even bolder claims with its upcoming Model 3 stating it'll have about 200 miles of range and a base price of $35,000. That's a nice goal, but is it possible. Battery skeptic Menahem Anderman wrote a new report suggesting that the pace of cost reduction for electric car batteries won't be as swift as Tesla's CEO Elon Musk suggests. This leads Anderman to predict the actual price of the upcoming Model 3 will be in the range of $50,000-$80,000.
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Is the Tesla Model 3 Actually Going To Cost $50,000?

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  • Yes. (Score:4, Funny)

    by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 17, 2014 @01:31PM (#47929853)

    Or no.

  • by iluvcapra ( 782887 ) on Wednesday September 17, 2014 @01:32PM (#47929873)

    That's a $500 lease payment and basically in line with a BMW 3 Series, not exactly demotic pricing but there's a lot of people shopping for something in that range, particularly after tax creds and discounting gasoline.

    • by jellomizer ( 103300 ) on Wednesday September 17, 2014 @01:40PM (#47929967)

      In short someone who who could afford the car is someone who really shouldn't need the tax credits. An other case of normal politics.

      The right makes it so the Rich doesn't have to pay taxes.
      The left makes it so the Rich are the only one able to avoid paying taxes.

      • by rogoshen1 ( 2922505 ) on Wednesday September 17, 2014 @01:52PM (#47930107)

        insert morpheus meme -- "What if i told you the rich run both parties, and neither has the middle/lower classes interests at heart?"

        • Re: (Score:2, Flamebait)

          by Ryanrule ( 1657199 )

          then i would tell you that you are engaging in false equivalence, and likely vote repub.

      • You're wrong in this case, there needs to be a bigger install base to allow the roll out of supporting infrastructure, from charging stations to competitors on battery manufacture. That's what the subsidies are about.
      • by Shatrat ( 855151 ) on Wednesday September 17, 2014 @01:56PM (#47930147)

        It's not about what they 'need'. That word's almost as arbitrary and useless as 'deserve'. This is about incentivizing people who can afford to buy the Tesla Model 3 instead of the V8 sports car they might otherwise be showing off.

      • by Altus ( 1034 )

        The reason to give the subsidy is to encourage people to engage in behavior that would not be economically beneficial to them otherwise. I probably wouldn't buy a tesla for 45K because that makes no sense for me. I won't pay that for a car and the savings on fuel will not get me even close to the point where it makes sense. With a 10K subsidy it would be a lot closer to making economic sense for me to buy this car. Sure it might end up a bit more expensive over the life or the car, or it might even end

      • Assuming the car is $35K and looking at household income in the USA
        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H... [wikipedia.org]

        It looks like you can start to afford this car when you're in the 75th percentile, and comfortably afford this when you're in the 85th percentile of American households...assuming average housing/living costs.

        If we go by the 85th percentile range, there's 45+ Million potential households that could afford/buy this car.

      • by afidel ( 530433 )

        The tax credit is there to jump start the industry, and there are per manufacturer and total vehicles sold caps on the credit, compared to all the perpetual credits for the oil and gas industry that's actually extremely progressive.Oh, and you can buy a Nissan Leaf and take full advantage of the credit without being anything approaching "Rich".

  • For $80k, I'll just get that...or a small house.

    • I'm curious. Where do you live, that you can buy a house for $80k? Around here $80k might not qualify as the down-payment on a house.

  • Speculation is fine, but do we really need more articles attempting to predict the cost of a car that doesn't yet exist? I might even consider buying one, but before I can take one for a test drive, and see the actual price.

  • Who to believe? (Score:5, Interesting)

    by brunes69 ( 86786 ) <slashdot@keir[ ]ad.org ['ste' in gap]> on Wednesday September 17, 2014 @01:36PM (#47929917)

    Who should I believe?

    Menahem Anderman a self confirmed "battery skeptic"

    Elon Musk who runs the company that makes the best and arguably most successful electric car ever produced, and is constantly hitting production targets?

    My money is on Elon.

  • No (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Dr J. keeps the nerd ( 1061562 ) on Wednesday September 17, 2014 @01:41PM (#47929971)
    From the article's conclusion: In the most likely scenario, Anderman writes, “the price of the 2017 new model will be in the range of $50-80K.” The 60-kWh version of today's Tesla Model S large luxury sedan starts at $69,900, with an EPA-rated range of 208 miles. Given that the Model 3 will be a smaller car with one-third less range, using a next-generation battery to be produced in bulk at Tesla's planned gigafactory, that seems rather pessimistic.
  • The Model S was aimed squarely at BMW 7-series, Mercedes S-Class and other similar upscale large luxury sedans. The people who can afford those like new gadgets, new technology and the like -- and have the disposable income to afford them. It would not surprise me at all if they had sufficient income to have a "second" car that they use for occasions where they will exceed the range of the Model S, in addition to a "family hauler" for the wife and kids to get around in.

    If the Model 3 comes in at $50K, that

  • Atm I drive to and from work 100-150KM depending if I have to pick up stuff for my shop. I pay $265 for my Yaris and I give myself $300 in gas which is paid by the shop. At this rate I'd just sell the Yaris, put the money into the Tesla and have work use the gas money towards the Tesla and the payments I'm already making on the Yaris. No more fill ups and save $0.15/L+ in gas tax untill the gov surcharges me for the use of a electric vehicles. There's the cost of electricity but that should be no where near

  • by timeOday ( 582209 ) on Wednesday September 17, 2014 @01:52PM (#47930109)
    Another possibility is that the model 3 will eventually hit its price point but miss its delivery date. If demand for the S remains strong enough to gobble up battery production, Tesla could just keep making those, while reduced battery prices increase profit, and/or reduce the selling price to extend demand even further, thus pushing back the Model 3.

    .

    The basic oddity of the Model 3 plan is Tesla's intention to jump all the way from the $80K S down to half of that on the next model. An electric car doesn't really need to be as cheap as $35K, since the S has demonstrated demand for a higher price if the car is good, and since the average price of a new car is already $28,400 [ehow.com], and those cars will burn tens of thousands of dollars of gas over their lifetime.

    One way or another there is going to be a financial incentive to feel their way down the price point more gradually, although I hope they remain committed to, and are able to pull off, the revolutionary approach.

  • by netsavior ( 627338 ) on Wednesday September 17, 2014 @01:56PM (#47930145)
    Tesla Model S is 69k, the model 3 is going to be less expensive and be less "premium" for lack of a better word. If your back of the napkin estimates don't TOP out at 69k then you have no basis in reality. The article sort of points this out and says an 80k price is "pessimistic" I am going to argue that it is psychotic, and invalidates everything else this soothsayer had to say.
    • by schlachter ( 862210 ) on Wednesday September 17, 2014 @02:16PM (#47930363)

      Model S might start at $70K but it can be optioned up to $100K.
      The Model 3 will be similar. It might start at $35K but it will option up to $50K.
      You could still have a starting price of $35K but with an average selling price of $45K.

      • I love my Leaf (Score:5, Interesting)

        by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 17, 2014 @04:27PM (#47931729)

        My 2012 Leaf cost $15,600 used, with 8,000 miles as a rental. It looks and runs like brand new, and I don't have to recoup the difference between the purchase price and that of a similar gasoline car.

        Gasoline alone used to cost $240 per month in our old car. The payment on the Leaf is $245. Electricity is about $50. Based on our acual usage, I pay about $ .07 USD per mile.

  • If the gigafactory pans out and the battery price actually falls low enough to support mid-luxury sedan (BMW 3 class, Lexus 3xx) at 35K, the real action will be elsewhere. All his patents have been made public domain, gigafactory proves the ability to make battery cost that low. There will be shortage of investors for more giga factories. Nissan Leaf would go from 25K to 18K. That is the price point where that segment becomes a very very serious threat to gas car market. Till we hit Peak Lithium of course.
  • "Stanford Team Creates Stable Lithium Anode Using Honeycomb Film" "The linked article suggests that the 200-mile-range, $25,000 electric car is a more realistic concept with batteries made with this technology" http://beta.slashdot.org/story... [slashdot.org] http://cleantechnica.com/2014/... [cleantechnica.com]
  • Who the fuck is this ass-clown? Why do I give a fuck what he thinks?

  • When somebody can make a decent range electric car that doesn't look like a piece of shit *coughleafpriusvolt*, and isn't priced at nearly double what you'd otherwise spend on a decent-looking brand new car made by another auto manufacturer, I might consider buying one... Tesla is the only player so far in the electric vehicle market that has made attractive cars with respectable range. But until Tesla can actually compete with gasoline cars on the amount it will actually cost to own one, they are just ne

  • Comment removed (Score:5, Interesting)

    by account_deleted ( 4530225 ) on Wednesday September 17, 2014 @02:37PM (#47930627)
    Comment removed based on user account deletion
    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      You're delusional if you think I want a new car . You wrecked the economy, crushed the housing market, and saddled me with student loans that can never be forgiven and that will garnish my wages even after death. until last year, i didnt have a chance in hell of getting health insurance. Most of my friends work more than one job, not many of them earn a programmers salary like me and even if they did theyd be furious to find out most of it (after the universities generous cut) is going to an apartment owned by a capital investment firm that doesnt care about my broken shower. I've never met my landlord but i sure as hell know who my loan officer is. A car represents tax, title, license, maintenance, and fuel money I dont have. It represents parking tickets and accident insurance and a parking space. Not only do i lack the cash to buy this car, but chances are likely i'll never have the credit rating you did.

      So you're saying, that because sales stats show young people didn't buy very many cars during the worst recession since the Depression, that young people don't want cars?

      That's like saying teenage boys don't really want pussy because they can't get any. Your entire post is one bitter rationalization of how you don't really want the things you don't have money to buy.

      I live downtown and I reverse-commute to the exurbs because the traffic is easier and im not as frightened of minorities as your generation was.

      Nice touch tossing in the ad hominem racism attack at the end there.

      I hope tomorrow is a happier day for you.

    • by geekoid ( 135745 )

      Poor person complains something he can't afford is something no one wants in order to feel like he's better then others.
      News at 11.

      Don't blame baby boomers for the economy, bucko. I know it's a neat meme, but it was lowering regulations that destroyed the economy.
      It was rich people trying to get even more at the expense of everyone else, INCLUDING baby boomers.

      And for the record, no one saddled you with loans but you. Not to say we don't need to fix the college costs, as well as end bank account garnishment

  • by tekrat ( 242117 ) on Wednesday September 17, 2014 @04:13PM (#47931609) Homepage Journal

    84MPG, only $6800 -- that's not a typo.
    http://www.eliomotors.com/ [eliomotors.com]

    Yes, it's an enclosed motorcycle, but it drives like a car. You will not need a helmet in almost all states. It will solve more problems than the Tesla will, which is a just a Green toy for Rich people. This is an actual vehicle for you and me, regular people that earn less than 6 figures a year.

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