Is the Tesla Model 3 Actually Going To Cost $50,000? 393
cartechboy writes How low can battery costs go, and how fast? That's the question automakers are dealing with when it comes to the future of electric cars. Tesla is betting big on electric and has already proven many skeptics wrong with its Model S sedan. The company is making even bolder claims with its upcoming Model 3 stating it'll have about 200 miles of range and a base price of $35,000. That's a nice goal, but is it possible. Battery skeptic Menahem Anderman wrote a new report suggesting that the pace of cost reduction for electric car batteries won't be as swift as Tesla's CEO Elon Musk suggests. This leads Anderman to predict the actual price of the upcoming Model 3 will be in the range of $50,000-$80,000.
Yes. (Score:4, Funny)
Or no.
Yes. (Score:5, Funny)
This is no more Troll than the original post.
Still pretty affordable (Score:3)
That's a $500 lease payment and basically in line with a BMW 3 Series, not exactly demotic pricing but there's a lot of people shopping for something in that range, particularly after tax creds and discounting gasoline.
Re:Still pretty affordable (Score:5, Insightful)
In short someone who who could afford the car is someone who really shouldn't need the tax credits. An other case of normal politics.
The right makes it so the Rich doesn't have to pay taxes.
The left makes it so the Rich are the only one able to avoid paying taxes.
Re:Still pretty affordable (Score:5, Insightful)
insert morpheus meme -- "What if i told you the rich run both parties, and neither has the middle/lower classes interests at heart?"
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then i would tell you that you are engaging in false equivalence, and likely vote repub.
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Re:Still pretty affordable (Score:4, Insightful)
It's not about what they 'need'. That word's almost as arbitrary and useless as 'deserve'. This is about incentivizing people who can afford to buy the Tesla Model 3 instead of the V8 sports car they might otherwise be showing off.
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The reason to give the subsidy is to encourage people to engage in behavior that would not be economically beneficial to them otherwise. I probably wouldn't buy a tesla for 45K because that makes no sense for me. I won't pay that for a car and the savings on fuel will not get me even close to the point where it makes sense. With a 10K subsidy it would be a lot closer to making economic sense for me to buy this car. Sure it might end up a bit more expensive over the life or the car, or it might even end
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Assuming the car is $35K and looking at household income in the USA
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H... [wikipedia.org]
It looks like you can start to afford this car when you're in the 75th percentile, and comfortably afford this when you're in the 85th percentile of American households...assuming average housing/living costs.
If we go by the 85th percentile range, there's 45+ Million potential households that could afford/buy this car.
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The tax credit is there to jump start the industry, and there are per manufacturer and total vehicles sold caps on the credit, compared to all the perpetual credits for the oil and gas industry that's actually extremely progressive.Oh, and you can buy a Nissan Leaf and take full advantage of the credit without being anything approaching "Rich".
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Re: Still pretty affordable (Score:5, Insightful)
Well let's see:
Your food.
The gasoline you buy.
The other cars you could buy.
Your bank account insurance.
Your home insurance.
The list goes on and on. I don't think you live in the Somalian government free paradise you think you do.
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We already have Medicare Part D, which while it is laudable that it helps retirees buy medicine, it stipulates that the US gov't pay FULL PRICE for these meds. Just to give you an example of what that's like, I was once asked to pay $80 to fill a prescription I normally pay $10 to have filled. I politely told them to shove it. Uncle Sam would have written a check for $80.
According to the official figures, the US gov't spends more money per capita on health insurance than coun
Re: Still pretty affordable (Score:4, Insightful)
According to the official figures, the US gov't spends more money per capita on health insurance than countries that provide universal coverage. It is a sickening example of cronyism and thinly veiled bribery.
According to the official figures I've seen, the Federal government alone pays enough to not quite as much per person as the cheaper European states spend to cover 100% of their population. Add in the individual State funding and you could pay median European* healthcare costs on an individual basis without a single private dime.
As a (moderate) libertarian, I actually find this a good argument for national single-payer if it's implemented somewhat correctly. Because if done right it would actually REDUCE government spending, meaning by my 'yardstick' we actually have less government while people are better off. I, of course, have to point out that I think there are better options, but it's more a measure of just how big a cluster of screw-ups our healthcare system is.
*not to mention Australia, Canada, Japan, South Korea, etc...
Re:Still pretty affordable (Score:5, Funny)
What else can subsidize here?
Well, in your case, apparently grammar school.
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Average in CA is 15.2 cents per kwh. The EPA uses 33.7kwh/gallon of gasoline for equivalency calculations. So that would be over $5 per gallon. However, electric cars have much better efficiency than gasoline cars... perhaps as much as 3x. That will bring your "per-gallon" price way down. You will save money on fuel compared to a gasoline car.
Re:Still pretty affordable (Score:5, Informative)
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How easy is it to get a separate time-of-day rate meter in California? I tried to get a separate water meter for my sprinkler system (no sewer charge) and my county quoted a charge of $1,000. This is in GA and I've heard that the charge varies by county.
Can the Tesla or Volt be connected to the charger and configured to only charge during a preset time period?
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Yes on the later question. In northern CA, they also offer "EV" plans where there are no more tiers. The base rate is higher (11cents/kWH after 11pm, peak of about 35cents/kWH during the day) than the tiered system (which starts at 5cents/kWH after 11pm with a peak of ~15cents/kWH, but grows exponentially).
But if you're charging an EV, you'll likely blow past the tiers anyway so having the EV plan works better. With a Model S, at least, you'll really only need to charge it at night and the software lets you
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Software on the car or not, a fish-tank timer is rated high enough and can turn your plug on at midnight when your cheaper rate kicks in.
I'm going to call bull on this one. You need a serious relay to switch that much voltage.
Re:Still pretty affordable (Score:4, Interesting)
Can the Tesla or Volt be connected to the charger and configured to only charge during a preset time period?
Tesla has a schedule function where you can set the time it will start charging. It's also geo-fenced (GPS), so the schedule is for a specific location. Pretty neat in that if you plug it in at home it won't start charging until your preset time, but plug it in somewhere else and it starts right away.
Re:Still pretty affordable (Score:5, Informative)
I added a second meter for charging my Tesla. Other than paying an electrician to do the wiring I just had to fill out some forms to get a permit, add a second address for PG&E and pay for a disconnect-reconnect from PG&E. I don't think I paid more than $100 for the permit and second address. I pay around $0.12/KWh on my second meter when I charge between 11pm and 6am on weekdays or any time on weekends. It was trivial to set my Tesla to start charging at 11:05pm at whatever current draw I want (up to 80 amps in my case). Most EVs and plug-in hybrids let you choose the charging times. Now I did end up paying $4500 for all of the electrical work I had done, but this involved replacing the main breaker panel on my house, installing a second one with the two meters and running a 100A circuit around 100 feet to my garage with a fair amount of thick conduit and an emergency shut-off in the garage. The Tesla charger was another $1200, which as far as car chargers go is not bad especially considering that it handles 80 amps.
Before getting two meters I was able to get a special time-of-use EV rate so the cost wasn't that bad.
I typically pay $40-60/month for charging my car and I average around 15,000 miles/year.
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$4500 is an awful lot to pay to save $100/month(estimated) in fuel costs. That's 4 years to simply pay for the electrical work before you even start touching any increase in car costs.
Re:Still pretty affordable (Score:5, Interesting)
Much of the cost was the cost to replace the main panel which is something I have wanted to do for some time anyway since the old one was almost 50 years old. Additionally, the previous owners did a lot of less-than-legal electrical work on the house and I wanted it done right. I corrected a lot of mistakes but I wanted a licensed electrician to go over it as well (he found a few issues I had missed). I could have continued to use the 30A dryer outlet in my garage indefinitely or installed a 50A outlet for considerably less money but I chose to do it right. I might have been able to use my existing breaker box and just run the 6 gauge wire needed for a 50A outlet for a few hundred dollars but I chose instead to do something that is more flexible in the future. Besides, my existing breaker box was almost full. The upgrade allowed me to add some additional circuits for other things.
Afterwards I ended up rewiring most of the outlets in my garage and adding some new ones using a couple of 20A circuits since the previous owners had tied everything into a 15A circuit that the doorbell transformer was on. It's also nice now that my air compressor doesn't cause the lights to dim and I don't have to risk tripping a breaker all the time when using power tools. I also feel better running 10 gauge wiring on the long run between the main panel and my garage for those outlets. 50 years ago the power requirements for houses were a bit different than they are today and this allows me to continue to upgrade things as I see fit. The car charger uses 1 gauge aluminum wire for much of the run with 2 gauge copper in the conduit. I had a neutral line run as well so that the wiring could be used for other purposes in the future if needed such as putting in a sub-panel in the garage. I have a few more circuits I plan to add now that I have more room available in my main panel.
When I got the house I found boxes hidden under the sheetrock and splices made with just electrical tape without any boxes plus putting 20A breakers on circuits that can't handle more than 15A, light switches put on the neutral line, etc. Some people shouldn't be allowed electrical wiring.
Besides, my house is paid off in full. If it wasn't for that there's no way I would have bought that car, let alone run the charging circuit for it. Most owners just go for a 50A outlet, which is all the Tesla will handle without an optional charger upgrade.
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Guess what the price of gas is around LAX?
$5/gallon
Re: Still pretty affordable (Score:5, Insightful)
That math really only works if you charge during peak hours (which most people don't) and compare it to the cost/mile driven of a Prius. Which is about as stretched of an assignment as you can make
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Thing is, in California electricity costs almost the same as gas
The top tier with southern california edison is $0.32/KWhr so filling the top capacity model S costs $27.20 and gives you a 300 mile range for a cost per mile of $.09. The average price of gas in southern California is currently ~$3.50 so to match the Tesla you'd have to achieve ~38MPG, which is quite a bit better than the 740i achieves, probably the most comparable vehicle to the Model S. Heck, the most fuel efficient large BMW in the US, the
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The top tier with southern california edison is $0.32/KWhr
Does this include taxes and the "delivery charge" that another post mentioned upthread?
Re:Still pretty affordable (Score:5, Insightful)
Yes. No one buys a Telsa in order to save money.
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Are you considering that in 2 years the supercharger network will be fully realized and unless you need to drive into Mexico or into Canada wilderness, you will have free electrons for long range driving. 110 superchargers operational in the USA, with another 22 in construction + licensing process plus over another 100 planned for the next 2 years. Superchargers have been popping up quickly. Tesla isn't making TX a priority due to anti Tesla sales hostility, but they will invest on the supercharger coverage
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Texas forbid someone in Texas want to drive one.
That who and the what now?
I live in Texas. I bought my Tesla in Texas. Thanks to the dealer lobby the paperwork says I bought it from California, but in reality the dealership bribes accomplished nothing except a slight tweak to a piece of paper. My car was delivered to the Dallas Tesla Service Center where I picked it up. Oh, and I had a California instead of Texas temp tag on it until I got my real Texas plates.
All in all the Texas "Tesla ban" is a non-event.
car sellers are bad even at selling (Score:3)
This year, I went to the annual auto show in Dallas. What a total waste of money and time. The automakers who bothered to attend sent very junior people who didn't know anything. But they looked young and pretty. And that was their main selling point too: pretty. Pretty girls selling pretty cars. One of the few interesting cars there was a Nissan Leaf.
Don't know why they bothered having the show. If the show was an indication of the state of automobiling, I'd say they are out of ideas, and too gutl
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One of my buddies is buying a Leaf.
The problem is this: once you test drive an electric car, you're done with shitty ICE forever. Nothing has better torque, better acceleration... and that's what the gold ol' 'murkin cahs are sold as, muscle.
Put them up against something electric, and these so-called "Muscle cars" are just saggy old curlbros trying to get big arms to draw attention away from their massive beer bellies.
Mustang Shelby GT 500 (Score:2)
For $80k, I'll just get that...or a small house.
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I'm curious. Where do you live, that you can buy a house for $80k? Around here $80k might not qualify as the down-payment on a house.
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Well, $80k will get you a pretty decent small RV, which I could drive to work!
Let's wait and see (Score:2)
Speculation is fine, but do we really need more articles attempting to predict the cost of a car that doesn't yet exist? I might even consider buying one, but before I can take one for a test drive, and see the actual price.
Who to believe? (Score:5, Interesting)
Who should I believe?
Menahem Anderman a self confirmed "battery skeptic"
Elon Musk who runs the company that makes the best and arguably most successful electric car ever produced, and is constantly hitting production targets?
My money is on Elon.
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Did it suck when he was there or only after he left? I don't recall anymore.
Re:Who to believe? (Score:5, Interesting)
From Wikipedia:
"In March 1999, Musk co-founded X.com, an online financial services and e-mail payment company.[13][14] One year later, the company merged with Confinity,[32][34] which operated a subsidiary called PayPal.[32] PayPal and X.com each had a person-to-person email-based payment system.[32] The original intent was to merge the two systems, but it never happened.[citation needed]
Musk strongly favored the PayPal brand over the X brand. After initially co-branding PayPal with the X brand, including making X.com a subdomain of PayPal,[32] he moved to officially remove the X.com brand for good. Following this, the board appointed PayPal founder Peter Thiel as interim CEO.[32] PayPal's early growth was due in large part to a successful viral growth campaign created by Musk.[35] In October 2002, PayPal was acquired by eBay for US$1.5 billion in stock, of which $165 million was given to Musk.[36] Before its sale, Musk, the company's largest shareholder, owned 11.7% of PayPal's shares.[37]"
TL;DR. Musk didn't create PayPal, he cofounded a company with a competing service that merged with the company that owned PayPal and while at the merged company pushed to use the PayPal platform as it was better. Then he left in 2002.
I really don't think we can lay the lion's share of PayPal's shittyness at his feet based on that. By that logic, Windows 8 should see Bill Gates hanged...
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If he hadn't been already for Vista
or WinMe
or Clippy
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Elon Musk. The guy who also created PayPal, arguably still one of the biggest, most successful companies on the internet.
There ya go, FTFY.
Not that he may have had much to do with that these days, but just stating the obvious. Business is business.
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Given that he explicitly said he wasn't going to build the hyper loop... It seems to be working out pretty much exactly as he said.
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Musk never said he'd build the hyperloop. He just said, here's an idea (free) to use if you want.
OTOH, SpaceX and Tesla Motors are doing quite well, thank you.
No (Score:5, Insightful)
$50K would not be that out of line (Score:2)
The Model S was aimed squarely at BMW 7-series, Mercedes S-Class and other similar upscale large luxury sedans. The people who can afford those like new gadgets, new technology and the like -- and have the disposable income to afford them. It would not surprise me at all if they had sufficient income to have a "second" car that they use for occasions where they will exceed the range of the Model S, in addition to a "family hauler" for the wife and kids to get around in.
If the Model 3 comes in at $50K, that
35K CDN would be awesome (Score:2)
Atm I drive to and from work 100-150KM depending if I have to pick up stuff for my shop. I pay $265 for my Yaris and I give myself $300 in gas which is paid by the shop. At this rate I'd just sell the Yaris, put the money into the Tesla and have work use the gas money towards the Tesla and the payments I'm already making on the Yaris. No more fill ups and save $0.15/L+ in gas tax untill the gov surcharges me for the use of a electric vehicles. There's the cost of electricity but that should be no where near
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No, I own the shop but since I use the car mostly for work the company pays the gas. Basically I get paid $300 less which means less income tax from me and for the company to fork over each month.
Alternately.... (Score:3)
.
The basic oddity of the Model 3 plan is Tesla's intention to jump all the way from the $80K S down to half of that on the next model. An electric car doesn't really need to be as cheap as $35K, since the S has demonstrated demand for a higher price if the car is good, and since the average price of a new car is already $28,400 [ehow.com], and those cars will burn tens of thousands of dollars of gas over their lifetime.
One way or another there is going to be a financial incentive to feel their way down the price point more gradually, although I hope they remain committed to, and are able to pull off, the revolutionary approach.
50-80k is an insane estimate (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:50-80k is an insane estimate (Score:5, Insightful)
Model S might start at $70K but it can be optioned up to $100K.
The Model 3 will be similar. It might start at $35K but it will option up to $50K.
You could still have a starting price of $35K but with an average selling price of $45K.
I love my Leaf (Score:5, Interesting)
My 2012 Leaf cost $15,600 used, with 8,000 miles as a rental. It looks and runs like brand new, and I don't have to recoup the difference between the purchase price and that of a similar gasoline car.
Gasoline alone used to cost $240 per month in our old car. The payment on the Leaf is $245. Electricity is about $50. Based on our acual usage, I pay about $ .07 USD per mile.
The real action will be elsewhere. (Score:2)
Anderman obviously doesn't read /. (Score:2)
Some guy: "I have a controversial opinion" (Score:2)
Who the fuck is this ass-clown? Why do I give a fuck what he thinks?
Still too much (Score:2)
When somebody can make a decent range electric car that doesn't look like a piece of shit *coughleafpriusvolt*, and isn't priced at nearly double what you'd otherwise spend on a decent-looking brand new car made by another auto manufacturer, I might consider buying one... Tesla is the only player so far in the electric vehicle market that has made attractive cars with respectable range. But until Tesla can actually compete with gasoline cars on the amount it will actually cost to own one, they are just ne
Comment removed (Score:5, Interesting)
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You're delusional if you think I want a new car . You wrecked the economy, crushed the housing market, and saddled me with student loans that can never be forgiven and that will garnish my wages even after death. until last year, i didnt have a chance in hell of getting health insurance. Most of my friends work more than one job, not many of them earn a programmers salary like me and even if they did theyd be furious to find out most of it (after the universities generous cut) is going to an apartment owned by a capital investment firm that doesnt care about my broken shower. I've never met my landlord but i sure as hell know who my loan officer is. A car represents tax, title, license, maintenance, and fuel money I dont have. It represents parking tickets and accident insurance and a parking space. Not only do i lack the cash to buy this car, but chances are likely i'll never have the credit rating you did.
So you're saying, that because sales stats show young people didn't buy very many cars during the worst recession since the Depression, that young people don't want cars?
That's like saying teenage boys don't really want pussy because they can't get any. Your entire post is one bitter rationalization of how you don't really want the things you don't have money to buy.
I live downtown and I reverse-commute to the exurbs because the traffic is easier and im not as frightened of minorities as your generation was.
Nice touch tossing in the ad hominem racism attack at the end there.
I hope tomorrow is a happier day for you.
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Poor person complains something he can't afford is something no one wants in order to feel like he's better then others.
News at 11.
Don't blame baby boomers for the economy, bucko. I know it's a neat meme, but it was lowering regulations that destroyed the economy.
It was rich people trying to get even more at the expense of everyone else, INCLUDING baby boomers.
And for the record, no one saddled you with loans but you. Not to say we don't need to fix the college costs, as well as end bank account garnishment
get an Elio instead... (Score:4, Interesting)
84MPG, only $6800 -- that's not a typo.
http://www.eliomotors.com/ [eliomotors.com]
Yes, it's an enclosed motorcycle, but it drives like a car. You will not need a helmet in almost all states. It will solve more problems than the Tesla will, which is a just a Green toy for Rich people. This is an actual vehicle for you and me, regular people that earn less than 6 figures a year.
Re:More importantly (Score:4, Insightful)
Your right gas cars are total non-perishable and never wear-out or need replacement parts, and gasoline can be recycled as well.
Yiu haven't answered my question. (Score:3)
Your right gas cars are total non-perishable and never wear-out or need replacement parts, and gasoline can be recycled as well.
I need to know what an electric car is going to cost me over its projected service life. I need to know the up-front cost of replacing a battery. I do not want to base my purchasing decision on "green" energy subsidies that may disappear after the next election.
Re: More importantly (Score:3)
LiON batteries can be recycled...
Re:More importantly (Score:5, Informative)
The price will be offset by other maintenance/repair costs. You'll win out in the long run.
Traditional gas engine cars need a lot of maintenance. They run very hot. They have a lot of fluids. Lots of rubber bits that wear out. Lots of moving parts that need lubrication. Lots of mess. You also need a lot of electronics to get modern levels of performance and effiency.
Electric motor systems are much more reliable. Less cooling.. Less wasted heat. (Less thermal stress) Simpler transmissions. (Having full torque at zero RPM solves a LOT of problems) Less complicated overall. They're lighter too, so you need less energy all together.
Whatever you will spend on a new battery will be a lot less than what you pay to maintain your gas engine car over it's lifetime. There is already a robust market for rebuilt battery packs and that will baloon in the near future. (Not all cells go bad at the same time. Just replace the bad performing cells and you're good to go)
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The battery should also last a very long time. I have read the post from one owner who has already racked up over 100,000 miles and still has over 95% of his original battery capacity. Tesla has a battery replacement policy where you can pay up-front to get a new battery after 8 years and get a $1000 rebate each year you wait beyond that.
Instead I decided to take some of that money and buy some stock when it was at $38. I'm kicking myself that I didn't buy more.
The electric motor in my Tesla won't need a lu
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Re:More importantly (Score:5, Insightful)
That battery will NOT last forever,
And neither does an internal combustion engine, either. Your point?
and when it needs a new one you'd be better off scrapping the entire car and buying a new one.
Citation needed. Seriously.
How good is that for the environment?
Awesome, actually. The battery can be recycled, and there aren't any heavy metals to deal with either.
--
BMO
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And neither does an internal combustion engine, either. Your point?
Wait. If an IC Engine stops working, and it costs $15k-$45k to replace, don't people normally scrap their car and get a new one? Isn't that what's being suggested for the electric cars (in essence) when a battery fails, if it costs about the same as an IC Engine?
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A new Leaf battery will set you back $5500, not $15-45k. That price may drop further in the future.
Tesla's have bigger batteries and go through a lot stress per mile than a Leaf (less percentage discharge for the same number of miles driven), so they are likely to last several times longer than the ~100-150k miles you can expect out of a Leaf's battery.
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Not really. While expensive, There is a reason Mr. Musk think we can hit his price point: By bringing down battery price by building his own largest battery fab in the world.
Tesla can switch a battery pack in minutes. (One of their business plans for the future is franchise stations where one would exchange batteries in minutes, the way one now gets gas). Except for crashes a car like the Tesla S has almost NO wear and tear compared to an internal combustion car. No gearbox, no oil, no injection systems no
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The battery is warrantied for 8 years. What percentage of cars are not scrapped by 9 years old (not zero to be sure, but not a lot I would guess); and that assumes (falsely I would suspect) that there is a mass failure right at 8 years. If the average is even 50% farther (12 years); we are coming into a siginifgant "scrapped anyway" territory.
Heck. At 12-years on a BMW, there are any number of wearbale parts that replacement may exceed car value (tires, brakes (you have to replace the rotors with the pads o
Re:More importantly (Score:4, Informative)
Not unless the car has been damaged.
BMWs have very high resale value. 12 year old BMWs are currently 2002 models. Very few model year 2002 BMWs can be found for under $5000 in _any_ condition.
In fact, if you do a quick search on autotrader.com for model year 2002 BMWs, you'll see that there are 1200 listings with an average asking price of $9700
I happen to be quite familiar with the running costs of old BMWs. The drive train of a BMW will easily last 12 years without substantial work. The exceptions would be the plastic cooling system components, and, on some models, premature VANOS failure. Sadly, on the newer N54 engines the HPFP is a disaster, but that is not the majority of used BMWs, and certainly not MY2002 cars.
Even paying dealer prices, to replace brakes, suspension rubber, tires, cooling system, etc, will not cost you $9000.
The brake rotors and pads are a few hundred dollars per corner, and you could replace them yourself in your own garage with a jack and hand tools.
FWIW, I really like Tesla. I look forward to a time when buying one of their cars makes sense for me.
However, your consideration of the repair costs of a 12 year old BMW is way off. Thus, my response.
Also, Brakes and Tires are functionally identical between a BMW and a Tesla, and, on the Model S, the Tesla replacement parts are probably more expensive (I haven't priced them to be certain), because the Tesla has very large low profile tires and very large brakes, especially compared to the "average" BMW (instead of their X5 trucks with big wheels, or their high performance M models with larger brakes)
So comparing a 12 year old BMW and a 12 year old Tesla, the wear and maintenance parts differences are the Tesla's battery vs. the BMW's conventional drivetrain. The latter requires coolant flushes, oil changes, transmission fluid changes, air filters, etc.
The one maintenance surprise that I learned about when chatting with a Tesla service technician was that on the model S, the A/C refrigerant is serviced regularly, because it is an integral component of the battery cooling system.
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Also, Brakes and Tires are functionally identical between a BMW and a Tesla, and, on the Model S
Sort of. The tires, yes. The brakes are functionally identical, but should wear much more slowly on the Model S thanks to regenerative braking. How much less depends on driving style, obviously.
Re:More importantly (Score:4, Interesting)
Brakes are different in the Tesla than in BMW. In the case of Tesla there is a lot of regenerative braking so the brakes should last a lot longer. Tires on the other hand... I have the performance version of the Tesla model S with the 21" rims. When I got my car there was no price difference between the 19 and 21" rims. Anyway, I managed to get a bit over 15K miles on the original tires. The negative camber Tesla uses tends to be a bit hard on the rear tires, plus I tend to accelerate rather hard.
Recycling may well figure in here (Score:2)
A "bad" battery won't land in a landfill. At least the raw materials will be recovered (there's a lot of Li that you don't have to buy then) and there's also lots of mechanical and electronic parts that will be still fine. Refurbishing and recycling could save a lot of cost compared to new batteries.
Building lots of them will also make them cheaper, as with everything.
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Hurray! My car is way above average!
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That battery will NOT last forever, and when it needs a new one you'd be better off scrapping the entire car and buying a new one.
At today's battery prices, sure. But the whole premise of the gigafactory is today's battery prices need to be made obsolete, and a new factory could do it. Will do it, unless every number crunched by Tesla is wrong, and that doesn't seem likely.
Today, yeah, replacing a complete lithium ion battery pack is prohibitively expensive. Tomorrow? Likely it will be a lot less.
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The battery will not be more than 30% of the value of the car.
It will last for a least 10 yrs in the car.
It will be used for other purposes or recycled after those 10 yrs.
The car can last much longer than the battery. It doesn't need to be scrapped.
Replacement batteries will be much cheaper by the time they are needed.
The motor itself is likely to last much longer than a gas engine as it's much simpler.
Re: (Score:3)
Well, there are some original model Prius out there with over 1M kilometers [carscoops.com] on their less overengineered batteries so I think any speculation about throwing away a Tesla because of a worn battery pack are just a bit pessimistic.
Re: (Score:3)
The highest mileage Tesla Model S I've heard about has a bit over 100K miles on it. The owner reports it's on the original battery and has only lost a few percent of range (battery capacity) compared to new.
Re: (Score:3)
The entire car is built of aluminum so it should last a long time (and can be easily recycled into beer cans or new cars at low energy cost).
Li batteries can also be recycled... wait for it... into new Li batteries.
Re: (Score:3)
I get your point, but I don't think that's the business model.
It looks to me like Tesla put out the high-dollar "elite" sports car as the first product, in order to generate enough revenue (higher profit margins on each one) to build more of a company aimed at the mass market.
So this isn't about "brand dilution" so much as the company knowing who it wants its customer to be -- and gradually lowering prices on the cars as the technology and profits from previous sales allow it to get there.
Tesla isn't trying
Re: (Score:2)
What are the two biggest price-determining factors in a market economy? Supply and Demand.
With Tesla's Giga-factory, Supply should be adequately covered.
With a $35 000 price point, I'm pretty sure Demand will be more than adequately covered.
I doubt drop in the cost of the batteries will remain constant/linear once the Tesla battery factory(ies) start production.
Re: (Score:2)
For the cost of Telsa's batteries to drop, Tesla's battery factory needs to run at full capacity. Tesla's factory will have the capacity to produce more batteries than required by the entire world's projected number of electric vehicles in 2020.
Re:Maybe 40k (Score:5, Insightful)
But the entire world's projected number of electric vehicles in 2020 depends on the price of electric cars and their batteries.
I'm also assuming those projected numbers came out the ass of MBAs.
Re: (Score:3)
That's why the factory (which will be owned more by Panasonic than Tesla) plans on selling batteries to every industry that uses them, not just electric cars.
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Tesla uses 18650-size cells, specifically because they are the most common Li-Ion form factor in the world. If Tesla is planning on producing a different-sized cell at the gigafactory, please provide a link.
Re:Maybe 40k (Score:5, Funny)
What are the two biggest price-determining factors in a market economy? Stupidity and greed.
Fixed.
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
The rest of you driving CO2-emitting cars should be paying a lot more than the tiny fraction of your taxes that goes to EV incentives.
Re:Maybe 40k (Score:5, Informative)
Except that these cars ARE CO2-emitting cars, unless you have arranged to get the power for your charger from renewable sources (difficult and expensive in most parts of the country). Here in Texas, these actually become a combination of coal, natural gas and nuclear burning cars.
I addessed this issue in this post [slashdot.org]. Short answer: even if the electricity is produced by coal, the large efficiency of electric motors, thermal power plants, and the electricity transmission system will ensure less emissions caused by an electric car than from a gasoline powered car. And my calculations didn't even take into account the emissions from processing oil into gasoline, which are especially high if the source is from tar sands. My calculations are referenced and I believe them to be reasonable.
Re: Maybe 40k (Score:3)
Nuclear still exists. People seem to forget.
Re: (Score:3)
Making amonia, hydrogen, methane from high temp nuclear, amazing possibilities, is 550C hot enough ? The ruskies already have at least one commercial reactor in operation capable of producing 550C stream.
Yeah, those pesky illogical wind turbine credits are killing all baseload generation in the USA. If only they would reformulate those credits as a percentage of the actual electricity revenues of wind generators, we could restore a minimum level of economic rationality to the market.
But... I did read a lot
Re: (Score:3)
I'd be happy to chip in my fair share of road tax. At 18 cents a gallon and about 10k miles a year driving, that works out to about $60 per year I ought to be paying towards road maintenance if you compare my Leaf to a 30 mpg econobox. Just don't try and stick a GPS tracker on my car like Oregon keeps thinking is a good idea. Make it part of my registration fees or something similarly simple.