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Transportation The Almighty Buck

NYC Subway, Bus Services Have Entered 'Death Spiral,' Experts Say (theguardian.com) 456

An anonymous reader quotes a report from The Guardian: Officials at the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) warned last week that without a major infusion of cash, [New York City's subway and bus services] will have to drastically cut service or increase fares on the system that carries millions of New Yorkers around the city. The system's financial straits have gotten worse in part because it has fewer riders, and is collecting less money in fares. Expected passenger revenue over a five-year period has dropped by $485 million since July.

"They've entered this death spiral," said Benjamin Kabak, who runs the transit website Second Avenue Sagas. "The subway service and the bus service has become unreliable enough for people to stop using it. If people aren't using it, there's less money, and they have to keep raising fares without delivering better service." The authority is proposing a fare hike that would take effect in March. One option would raise the basic fare for a ride to $3 from the current $2.75. Another option would leave the base fare the same but increase the cost of monthly passes and eliminate bonuses for riders. They are also proposing $41 million a year in service cuts, mainly increasing the time between trains and buses on some routes. And, if approved, the plan would delay the launch of faster bus routes.
The proposed cuts "will still leave the MTA with massive deficits, expected to hit nearly $1 billion a year by 2022," the report says. "To tackle those deficits, officials say they would have to cut service more drastically, or raise fares by an additional 15%."
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NYC Subway, Bus Services Have Entered 'Death Spiral,' Experts Say

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  • by eepok ( 545733 ) on Wednesday November 21, 2018 @08:15AM (#57679054) Homepage

    Itâ(TM)s a bit disenguous to say that people ARENâ(TM)T riding New York transit. 2017 had 1.73 BILLION subway boardings alone.

    The problem comes with ridehailing companies. While there are plenty of criticisms to be had about the medallion system, it did keep more private automobiles off the road and keep more people on transit than Uber or Lyft whose use has been directly correlated with reduced transit use nationwide.

    As unpopular as transit is in much of the nation, when you get SO MANY people crunched into the same space, youâ(TM)ve simply got to ensure people donâ(TM)t drive or else the pollution, road risk, and quality of life simply ranks.

    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward

      Four billion dollars UNACCOUNTED FOR in one just one year. MTA embezzles too much. End of story.

      • I left NY in 2005, but I remember seeing MTA guys sleeping in their trucks by the railroad tracks every morning. The place I worked was a converted station, and they'd nap right next to the parking lot.
    • by iserlohn ( 49556 )

      I said this above, but ridesharing is currently heavily VC subsidised which won't last beyond Uber's exit strategy, whatever that it.

  • by bogaboga ( 793279 ) on Wednesday November 21, 2018 @08:21AM (#57679066)

    "They've entered this death spiral," said Benjamin Kabak, who runs the transit website Second Avenue Sagas. "The subway service and the bus service has become unreliable enough for people to stop using it. If people aren't using it, there's less money, and they have to keep raising fares without delivering better service."

    This is in the most "wealthy" country in the world! Forget the fact that our debt now exceeds the GDP - at 105% of GDP (at least).

    In the meantime, our leaders haven't forgotten how to foment [costly] mayhem abroad. Sad!

    • In the meantime, our leaders haven't forgotten how to foment [costly] mayhem abroad. Sad!

      Imperialism rarely benefits the average Joe, and especially the poor Joe. It is however great for the elites and for the (very) rich Joes.

  • by dyfet ( 154716 ) on Wednesday November 21, 2018 @08:27AM (#57679100) Homepage

    When it already can actually costs $5.00 or more each way depending on where you are just to commute to work each day at a job that may pay $10/hour, it is already at an unsustainable cost to those who would need or use it most. Raising fairs any more will simply guarantee empty trains and busses.

    • by 110010001000 ( 697113 ) on Wednesday November 21, 2018 @08:31AM (#57679112) Homepage Journal
      I never understand people. What is the alternative? The same trip will cost you $20 in taxi fare, or even in your own car. Bizarre. The only cheaper alternative is a bike. Surely the alternative is to raise wages.
    • by stealth_finger ( 1809752 ) on Wednesday November 21, 2018 @08:53AM (#57679254)

      Raising fairs any more will simply guarantee empty trains and busses.

      That's why it's a death spiral. Higher fares mean less riders which means higher fares and so on.

    • Oh Bull Shit. Seriously. What, you want people riding for free? Who is to pay maintenance to the tracks and cars? Who is to pay for police protection both on the trains and at the stations. You are an idiot. It isn't free, and 25 cents is not an outrageous increase.
      • Oh Bull Shit. Seriously. What, you want people riding for free? Who is to pay maintenance to the tracks and cars? Who is to pay for police protection both on the trains and at the stations. You are an idiot. It isn't free, and 25 cents is not an outrageous increase.

        Not only does Beijing have a much cleaner, more efficient, and more prolific subway system than NYC, but it also only costs $0.25 per ride. I think NYC would be much nicer to visit if they had more frequent subway service and cleaner stations. I know my friends who live there would appreciate that, too. One of my friends finds that a 60 minute bicycle ride from Brooklyn to Manhattan is much less stressful and often faster than taking the train because there are so many service disruptions on MTA. His bi

  • by quenda ( 644621 ) on Wednesday November 21, 2018 @08:36AM (#57679152)

    How many city transport systems make a profit?
    It is perfectly normal for subways to only get a fraction of their income from ticket sales. And for governments to fund the system from taxes, just like the roads.

    What is wrong with the NYC and state governments that they don't want to fund a transport system worthy of a great city?

    • "What is wrong with the NYC and state governments that they don't want to fund a transport system worthy of a great city?"

      Look into it. The problem is obvious.

    • How many city transport systems make a profit? It is perfectly normal for subways to only get a fraction of their income from ticket sales. And for governments to fund the system from taxes, just like the roads.

      What is wrong with the NYC and state governments that they don't want to fund a transport system worthy of a great city?

      Why not raise rates to whatever works, and then subsidize whoever you think we should be subsidizing to ride it (give them taxpayer paid gifts of passes or whatever)?

      Wouldn't that be less regressive?

  • Glad you could join us!

    -Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority

  • by IHTFISP ( 859375 ) on Wednesday November 21, 2018 @08:38AM (#57679166)

    Odd that the article fails to mention the core economics fundamentals at issue here, such as the stifling burden of union pensions for retired MTA workers. It also fails to note the core management issues, like union contracts prohibiting: a) firing employees for incompetence, or b) initiating merit-based pay increases as an incentive to improve performance. Failing infrastructure is a consequence of incompetent planning, management & maintenance, while failing finances is a consequence of entrenched expenditure largess. The article addresses neither of these concerns.

    It also strikes me as peculiar that former NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg has recently donated $1.8 billion (!) to Johns Hopkins University—a private university in Baltimore, Maryland and his alma mater—but he has offered no financial assistance to his beloved city's core transportation system. It makes one wonder just how committed he is to fixing his city's financial & governance issues and/or core infrastructure problems. It's almost as if he prefers to leave those problems unaddressed so he can campaign to fix them in his next run for political office, while taking a substantial tax deduction for a donation to a private institution. Or perhaps he's just angling to become President of Johns Hopkins University? Or perhaps I'm just being cynical? *smirk*

    • by gtall ( 79522 )

      No, you are just being stupid. That donation is a one time deal, not an ongoing expense like public transportation. The basic problem is that the public transportation being run like a business means that it must be taxed. That means the public would have to pay for its use of the roads and other infrastructure. Coincidentally, that's not unlike what's happening now with fares, think of them as a business tax. If that isn't enough to cover it, then they'll be raising prices which means fewer people riding i

    • Why would he throw money at a cooperation which will only waste it?

    • by schwit1 ( 797399 ) on Wednesday November 21, 2018 @09:56AM (#57679634)

      To add this this...
      How excessive staffing, little competition, generous contracts and archaic rules dramatically inflate capital costs for transit in New York. [nytimes.com]

      An accountant discovered the discrepancy while reviewing the budget for new train platforms under Grand Central Terminal in Manhattan.

      The budget showed that 900 workers were being paid to dig caverns for the platforms as part of a 3.5-mile tunnel connecting the historic station to the Long Island Rail Road. But the accountant could only identify about 700 jobs that needed to be done, according to three project supervisors. Officials could not find any reason for the other 200 people to be there.

      “Nobody knew what those people were doing, if they were doing anything,” said Michael Horodniceanu, who was then the head of construction at the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, which runs transit in New York.

      • by aepervius ( 535155 ) on Wednesday November 21, 2018 @10:52AM (#57679954)
        From the article you lniked, there is this gem : https://www.nytimes.com/2017/1... [nytimes.com] what you say about 200 worker is nothing (it is probably a rounding error for a billion dollar project) , compared to the action local politician forced which cost billions - generation of politician literary plundered the NYC public transit system.

        It was the result of a series of decisions by both Republican and Democratic politicians â" governors from George E. Pataki to Mr. Cuomo and mayors from Rudolph W. Giuliani to Bill de Blasio. Each of them cut the subwayâ(TM)s budget or co-opted it for their own priorities.
        They stripped a combined $1.5 billion from the M.T.A. by repeatedly diverting tax revenues earmarked for the subways and also by demanding large payments for financial advice, I.T. help and other services that transit leaders say the authority could have done without.

        That and what follows is what killed your public transit.

  • by bobstreo ( 1320787 ) on Wednesday November 21, 2018 @08:40AM (#57679174)

    From the summary:

    "The subway service and the bus service has become unreliable enough for people to stop using it. If people aren't using it, there's less money, and they have to keep raising fares without delivering better service."

    The solution to this problem isn't increasing fares or reducing services.

    It's identifying (and rectifying) why services have become unreliable to the point people don't want to use them.

    • It's identifying (and rectifying) why services have become unreliable to the point people don't want to use them.

      Yes, but the "rectifying" part costs a bunch of money. Hence the need for additional funds.

      What they're saying is that the system is already in a death spiral. It hasn't had enough funding to repair and modernize itself, which has caused it to become less reliable, which has hurt ridership, which reduces funding, which means they become less reliable, which hurts ridership, which reduces funding... and so on.

    • From the summary:

      "The subway service and the bus service has become unreliable enough for people to stop using it. If people aren't using it, there's less money, and they have to keep raising fares without delivering better service."

      The solution to this problem isn't increasing fares or reducing services.

      It's identifying (and rectifying) why services have become unreliable to the point people don't want to use them.

      My friend stopped taking NYC subway because there are constant service interruptions and there's no way to know when you'll get where you're trying to go. According to him, most of those service interruptions are caused by people jumping on the tracks, requiring medical attention on the train, etc.

  • "Expected passenger revenue over a five-year period has dropped by $485 million since July. "

    WTH does this even mean?

    • There was a five-year estimate before July. July happened. The five-year estimate in July was $485 million lower than it was before July.

      1) Something was taken into account in July that wasn't taken into account prior to July.
      2) That difference resulted in a $485 million reduction in expectations.
      3) The expectation changed.

      If you need anything else translated from English into English, I'll help as much as I feel like.

  • If you raise the fares cost for the end user, less people will use it. So you get less money, and to compensate this you further raise fares. At the end of the process, you will struggle trying to sell a tickets costing a few gazilions of dollars to your last passenger. Not a bright move...
    The solution is probably investing into more efficient trains. Look at what happened to flight tickets and airline incomes after the introduction of the 787 Dreamliner.
    • If someone really needs to use it they will pay more. The only people you lose by putting the price up is people who don't have to use it, which are the minority of users. You'd have to cite some numbers in order to validate your claim.
  • by puddingebola ( 2036796 ) on Wednesday November 21, 2018 @09:40AM (#57679518) Journal
    Trying to imagine what the city of New York has as an alternative to public transit and I can't see it.
  • by 140Mandak262Jamuna ( 970587 ) on Wednesday November 21, 2018 @09:47AM (#57679558) Journal
    The public roads of NYC have limited total area. Every one from transit buses to private cars and taxis should pay a rent proportional to the amount of time and area they occupy. Similarly they should pay for the right to emit pollution. Same price per pollution, be it a bus, be it a car.

    The public transit will spread the cost around its ridership. Taxis and cars will spread it among its users. If this fair system of rent is collected, then we can let free market decide the cost and the transit systems will become profitable.

    Transit companies cannot raise prices to become profitable because the private cars and taxis are taking the roads for free, emitting more pollution per passenger for free. Make them ALL play by the same rule, then we can depend on free markets.

    • by Malc ( 1751 )

      I think you need to factor in transportation density. A bus will carry far more people than the cars that require the same amount of space. Don't like publc transport? Then cycle. I see large numbers of cyclists filling the gaps between the cars (better density) here in London, and they're faster than surface and underground transportation.

      Taxes or pollution/congestion charges targetting less desirable road users could also help fund the transit system and encourage people on to more desirable forms of

      • There is no special breaks for buses. A 300 hp diesel engine will emit more pollutants and it will pay higher taxes for the pollution. It will spread the tax among more passengers. A Prius might emit a lot less, but it has fewer seats to spread the cost to.

        Same way, use IPass like identification and number plate readers and calculate the square-foot-minutes occupied by the vehicle. Tax them exactly the same amount per square-foot-minute. Give absolutely no special breaks for the buses.

        You will see hue a

  • by Kevin108 ( 760520 ) on Wednesday November 21, 2018 @10:15AM (#57679736) Homepage

    You just pay for it.

  • The subway runs ~100 trains and has nearly 1.8B riders every year and is heavily subsidized as well. They collect more than twice in tax-subsidies than fares and have more than $30B in debt. The real price of the subway should thus be ~$6.

    The first problem is labor unions:
    Average cost per year per unionized worker for the transit system: $140,000 - a lot of people in NYC make a lot less than that.

    The second problem is mismanagement:
    None of the managers want to challenge the unions and billions of dollars di

  • by Amtrak ( 2430376 ) on Wednesday November 21, 2018 @10:26AM (#57679806)
    Seriously, they should just ban private cars from the Island of Manhattan all together. I recently visited NY and having lived in Chicago for years all I have to say is that NYC is not really setup for cars. The buildings are too close together and there is way to much traffic. They are dependent on their mass transit system to function because of this and frankly it sucks. I mean Chicago's CTA system is no spring chicken but the MTA made it look amazing by comparison. If Chicago can get basic maintenance done and keep its system running what is the problem with NYC. It sounds to me like it is mostly corruption which coming from Chicago makes me feel like I'm throwing stones in a glass house but yeah.... But honestly NYC needs to encourage more usage of the public transport system by the upper class. Then they will have skin in the game and maybe the system will actually get the capital it needs to be fixed. Banning cars from Manhattan would do that. It could be sold as an environmental thing (Because it is). Maybe link into that the idea that taxi's that operate in Manhattan must be electric to ease the sell and allow trucks to still be allowed but only with a new licensing fee that helps subsidize the mass transit system.
    • The wealthy elites who live there will never put up with it. Owning a car in Manhattan is a status symbol, and elites love status symbols. Take away their cars and you attack the very center of their being. They will fight before they allow the proles to take away something that is rightfully theirs.
  • by kackle ( 910159 ) on Wednesday November 21, 2018 @11:21AM (#57680092)
    FYI, "60 Minutes" just did a report [cbsnews.com] on that system. The century-old technology shown is awesome; I'd love to be involved in that engineering/repair in another life. And frankly, I don't know what the harm is in using it. As an old firmware guy, I know that computerizing everything will leave it just as prone to faults.

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