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Transportation Government The Almighty Buck United States

California Will Not Complete $77 Billion High-Speed Rail Project (reuters.com) 392

An anonymous reader quotes a report from Reuters: California Governor Gavin Newsom said on Tuesday the state will not complete a $77.3 billion planned high-speed rail project, but will finish a smaller section of the line. "The project, as currently planned, would cost too much and take too long. There's been too little oversight and not enough transparency," Newsom said in his first State of the State Address Tuesday to lawmakers. "Right now, there simply isn't a path to get from Sacramento to San Diego, let alone from San Francisco to (Los Angeles). I wish there were," he said. Newsom said the state will complete a 110-mile (177 km) high-speed rail link between Merced and Bakersfield. In March 2018, the state forecast the costs had jumped by $13 billion to $77 billion and warned that the costs could be as much as $98.1 billion.

California planned to build a 520-mile system in the first phase that would allow trains to travel at speeds of up to 220 miles per hour in the traffic-choked state from Los Angeles to San Francisco and begin full operations by 2033. Newsom said he would not give up entirely on the effort. "Abandoning high-speed rail entirely means we will have wasted billions of dollars with nothing but broken promises and lawsuits to show for it," he said. "And by the way, I am not interested in sending $3.5 billion in federal funding that was allocated to this project back to Donald Trump."

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California Will Not Complete $77 Billion High-Speed Rail Project

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  • Feature not bug (Score:3, Insightful)

    by xxxJonBoyxxx ( 565205 ) on Tuesday February 12, 2019 @07:18PM (#58112632)
    >> would cost too much and take too long. There's been too little oversight and not enough transparency

    That's usually a feature, not a bug, in government projects. How can you pay off your buddies if people can see who's getting paid?
    • This seems to be the same story in many newer projects in the US. Someone is always anxious to undercut to get the bid and then overcharge later to get the money. Proper long term project planning isn't done so that there's inevitably an "overrun" in time and money. And it makes no difference if the project is in a red or a blue state either. It makes me wonder how we ever managed to get big and complex projects done in the past.

    • He just doesn't want to say that there isn't enough money, never was, and it was a dumb idea from the very start.

      As someone who predicted many years ago that billions would be spent, and then reality would set in and it would be cancelled, I want to take this opportunity to say: "I told you so."

  • by Zorro ( 15797 ) on Tuesday February 12, 2019 @07:18PM (#58112634)

    Because EVERYONE wants to be in Merded!

    • by SuperKendall ( 25149 ) on Tuesday February 12, 2019 @07:22PM (#58112658)

      The really sad part is it won't even make it to Shelbyville.

      • We can't bust heads like we used to, but we have our ways. One trick is to tell 'em stories that don't go anywhere - like the time I caught the ferry over to Shelbyville. I needed a new heel for my shoe, so, I decided to go to Morganville, which is what they called Shelbyville in those days. So I tied an onion to my belt, which was the style at the time. Now, to take the ferry cost a nickel, and in those days, nickels had pictures of bumblebees on 'em. Give me five bees for a quarter, you'd say. Now where
      • The really sad part is it won't even make it to Shelbyville.

        With those billions that they wasted, they could have bought e-scooters for everyone in Shelbyville.

        And for everyone in San Francisco and Los Angeles, as well.

        Then all those folks could e-scooter their way between San Francisco and Los Angeles . . . via Shelbyville.

  • Cost overruns (Score:4, Interesting)

    by WoodstockJeff ( 568111 ) on Tuesday February 12, 2019 @07:24PM (#58112676) Homepage

    Ironically, many of the cost overruns are for dealing with things like environmental impact, routing through areas that don't want it, then routing around those areas that have the political clout to get excluded, etc.

  • China wins again! (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Pollux ( 102520 ) <speter@[ ]ata.net.eg ['ted' in gap]> on Tuesday February 12, 2019 @07:25PM (#58112688) Journal

    Why can China figure out how to construct 18,000 miles of high speed rail [wikipedia.org], and we can't even figure out how to connect LA to SF?

    High speed rail... dark side of the moon... mass production of consumer goods... America is failing repeatedly, with or without Trump.

    • China has a bunch of unemployed farmers it can pay $10 a day to work on construction projects. California's minimum wage is $11 per hour.
    • by Jeremi ( 14640 ) on Tuesday February 12, 2019 @07:43PM (#58112794) Homepage

      Let's just say that China takes a very narrow view of property rights. Obtaining the necessary land is much quicker and cheaper when you can just order anybody off of their property at gunpoint with no due process.

    • by rogoshen1 ( 2922505 ) on Tuesday February 12, 2019 @07:45PM (#58112802)

      us: lawsuits, red tape, more lawsuits, elections, more red tape
      china: prison, education camps, execution.

      basically it's way easier to do large-scale engineering projects if you can jail or bury anyone who speaks out.

      • Excuses, excuses (Score:5, Interesting)

        by Pollux ( 102520 ) <speter@[ ]ata.net.eg ['ted' in gap]> on Tuesday February 12, 2019 @09:39PM (#58113286) Journal

        Three words: Interstate Highway System [wikipedia.org].

        It's not the lack of Chinese authoritarianism that's preventing us from making it work. It's our inability to align all our interests and resources to make it happen.

        Back in 1956, we passed something called the National Interstate and Defense Highways Act. In 35 years, we constructed over 48,000 miles of dedicated highway, three times as much Chinese high speed rail in only double the time. How did it all come together? Simple: the threat of war. Eisenhower was inspired by the national highway system of Germany and how it served as vital military infrastructure for them during World War II. Investing in that infrastructure for the homeland would be a strategic military asset in case of invasion. So far, it's yet to be used that way, but it's contributed tremendous returns to our nation's GDP.

        The only thing preventing us from making it happen is a lack of will.

      • You have to admire their firmness in dealing with the deplorables, though. If we only had a leader who had the courage to take the necessary harsh measures against them. But instead he's on their side against us. China's system isn't all bad.
      • Re:China wins again! (Score:4, Interesting)

        by joe_frisch ( 1366229 ) on Tuesday February 12, 2019 @10:51PM (#58113536)

        We do have a lot more people in prison than China does.
        Otherwise, yes, they are more willing than us to break eggs to make omelets. They built 10,000KM of high speed rail in the time it took us to talk about building it. They now have better roads, more solar and wind, etc.

        We have democracy - but somehow a government lead by people who seem widely disliked. We have social programs, but many homeless on the streets. We have human rights but around a million ethnic minorities in prison who have never had a jury trial.

        The US has great ideals - and that is important, but the reality tends to fall far short.

    • The Chinese Government owns all the land; there is no private property rights in China, you get - at best - a 75 year revocable lease on your home. And those who protest such "five year plan" keystones tend to end up missing...
  • by k6mfw ( 1182893 ) on Tuesday February 12, 2019 @07:30PM (#58112714)
    I see this as High Speed Rail is simply not in the mindset of Americans regardless of their political alignment. Perhaps how it got this far is something unusual. We have no problem of spending trillions on "infrastructure" in Iraq and Afghanistan with nothing to show for it, but trying to spend a small fraction of that ***here*** on our own country, everyone screams it's so expensive!
    • by aaarrrgggh ( 9205 ) on Tuesday February 12, 2019 @08:57PM (#58113086)

      The approach was flawed from the outset. To take a "train" today from San Diego to Sacramento you spend 5 hours in a bus, between Los Angeles and Fresno due to the mountains. Your two options are to hug the coast which doesn't provide value to inland communities, or figure out a way through the mountain, which would be about a 40-mile tunnel through a seismically active area. (Yes, tunnels are safe places to be during earthquakes, unless they cross fault lines, which this would.)

      But, if they pulled it off, they would suddenly have a tunnel to Antelope Valley/Palmdale, which would provide a huge economic impact on the region and allow for a metric shit-ton of affordable housing with a 20-minute commute to downtown LA. The problem is that just that section would cost about $20-40 billion.

      On the upside, once it is done, (and you have presumably purchased the right-of-way to Fresno already) the rest of the project is easy to make incrementally.

  • by bobstreo ( 1320787 ) on Tuesday February 12, 2019 @07:32PM (#58112728)

    create a contract that penalizes the other party for late delivery? If you give the contractor 5x the base price and still have nothing to show for it, you should be jailed.

    Government contracts are not supposed to be an endless trough of money.

    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by alvinrod ( 889928 )
      You assume that some of this isn't by design. Government contracts are a convenient way for politicians to kickback some of the bribes^H^H^H^H^H^H campaign contributions that politicians receive from various companies, unions, etc.

      The other side of it is that sometimes its other parts of the government that are responsible for the holdups. I'm sure that this thing has been hit with the environmental impact report stick so many times it's cross-eyed.
  • by whoever57 ( 658626 ) on Tuesday February 12, 2019 @07:39PM (#58112766) Journal

    The original route: Sacramento/LA. Why? California's two big population centers are LA and the SF Bay Area. That should have been the target route from the outset.

    • by HornWumpus ( 783565 ) on Tuesday February 12, 2019 @08:09PM (#58112906)

      Your not going HSR fast in the Bay area. The urban part is just the Caltrain route, just upgrade that. Besides unless you repurpose the golden gate. SF is a dead end. Even if you do the golden gate, that puts you in Marin, good luck with those nuts. Also note: HSR already paid SF huge bucks to build a terminal. Straight up bribe for political support. Bet the money is gone.

      There is already Amtrak commuter from Oakland to Sac, connecting to BART and Sac light rail (kind of expensive vs just driving to the end of BART). Sac has a clear shot north and is already the rail crossroads.

      • Caltrain actually has daily ridership already; spending money on it made and makes sense; the improvements boosted system speed and throughput and as I understand has improved ridership, until at least when the transbay terminal beam cracked.

        The goal has to be long-term, with meaningful steps forward. The money squandered in the central valley is what is lost.

    • This phenomena manifests itself in a lot of rail projects. For some reason, they build less important segments first, under the mistaken notion that no one would cancel it before they get to the meat. Here are some examples:
      1. San Juan (PR)'s Tren Urbano - Doesn't go to the airport, the tourist district, or the largest shopping mall in the Caribbean (Plaza Las Americas). The latter two locations are traffic nightmares. Hell most visitors to San Juan have no idea it even *has* a metro!
      2. New York City's

  • so many mistakes (Score:5, Insightful)

    by supernova87a ( 532540 ) <kepler1@NoSpaM.hotmail.com> on Tuesday February 12, 2019 @07:48PM (#58112820)
    As much of a fan of high speed rail as I am, this project from the beginning was plagued by many issues:

    - Distance of SF-LA being just beyond the edge of air/rail travel decision break point
    - Lots of intractable property rights issues along the route (and lack of political willingness to exert eminent domain for a more reasonable route)
    - High required labor and engineering cost (union requirements)
    - Backwards approach to do the easiest part / least useful segment first
    - Management team that kept moving the target (or was deceived) on cost, geotechnical feasibility, political backing

    As a result, I concluded that despite how good it would be as a showcase project, this was not anywhere near the top of the list of cost-effective things you would invest in to improve CA transportation issues. And now they've had to embrace reality.

    I would even say, the whole thing should be canned rather than continuing to dump money into a stupid central valley rail that no one will use. Bakersfield to Modesto? Tell me who's going to take that train...

    The worst thing is that this will set a bad example / leave people burned and resistant to trying it again. Sometimes, we really do need authoritarian-style government to clear out resistance when a good project is identified but individual interests bog it down.
    • by Ichijo ( 607641 )

      Distance of SF-LA being just beyond the edge of air/rail travel decision break point

      Unless you're trying to get from downtown Los Angeles to downtown San Francisco during rush hour!

      despite how good it would be as a showcase project, this was not anywhere near the top of the list of cost-effective things you would invest in to improve CA transportation issues.

      That's true, variable congestion tolling the I-5 and the 101 would be a MUCH cheaper (and permanent) way to eliminate the traffic congestion.

      • by Etcetera ( 14711 )

        Distance of SF-LA being just beyond the edge of air/rail travel decision break point

        Unless you're trying to get from downtown Los Angeles to downtown San Francisco during rush hour!

        You can get that flight for $100 on a good day through Southwest.

        • Unless you're trying to get from downtown Los Angeles to downtown San Francisco during rush hour!

          You can get that flight for $100 on a good day through Southwest.

          If your flight is on the ground in downtown San Francisco, you are not having a good day.

        • by Ichijo ( 607641 )

          Unless you're trying to get from downtown Los Angeles to downtown San Francisco during rush hour!

          You can get that flight for $100 on a good day through Southwest.

          Try booking that flight during rush hour in downtown Los Angeles, then leave immediately for the airport and see if you can get to downtown San Francisco faster and cheaper than the train would have been!

      • Unless you're trying to get from downtown Los Angeles to downtown San Francisco during rush hour!

        I've got some good news for you, since it takes about six hours to drive from Los Angeles to San Francisco (yes I have done this) you're only going to be in one rush hour.

      • Southwest Airlines out of Burbank, to OAK - round trip for $200. Burbank and Oakland are great airports because they are small - fast TSA, easy to get into/out from, etc. And traffic isn't bad to drive from LA to Burbank especially in the morning because it's a counter-commute.
    • by jrumney ( 197329 ) on Tuesday February 12, 2019 @08:15PM (#58112950)
      Add to that, they are doing it ass backwards. The sensible approach would have been to build high speed rail San Diego - LA and San Jose - SF first, then once people get used to the idea, build the longer distance link in between. Building the link between two minor cities first for cost reasons is just going to doom the project from the start, as there will never be enough demand for that service to pay for the route (even if that route is much cheaper per mile than the more densely populated routes).
      • Not sure about San Diego - LA, but they already have OK commuter rail between San Jose and SF - well at least it seemed OK the few times I've taken it, maybe it had issues for more regular users. a high speed rail line to somewhere north of Oakland would probably be a great idea, that has a subway but frankly it sucks, is slow, and is SUPER packed at rush hour so it could really use another channel of service that was as fast to get from the north end of Oakland down to SF. It would probably have helped O

        • by jrumney ( 197329 )
          To make a start on high speed rail, you need a non-stop (or perhaps one stop at SFO) service on dedicated tracks San Jose to San Francisco, not commuter rail.
          • To make a start on high speed rail, you need a non-stop (or perhaps one stop at SFO) service on dedicated tracks San Jose to San Francisco

            But how much faster would it really be, that's my issue.

            Looking at transit directions I see the existing train part takes longer than I thought - almost an hour. But that's not terrible (for California). And I can't imagine a worse area to actually try and get a newer high speed rail through than all the land between San Jose and SF...

    • They can call the authoritarian project to clear out resistance 'The Great Leap Forward'.

      You've identified yourself as among the group of people who should never have power.

  • by Balial ( 39889 ) on Tuesday February 12, 2019 @07:52PM (#58112832) Homepage

    whenever a taxpayer funded operation is, ahem, railroaded into poor planing, cost overruns and all the other excessive wastage. Burn that fucker to the ground and walk away from it. It's not worth another cent.

  • It sucks to be us (Score:5, Insightful)

    by AlanObject ( 3603453 ) on Tuesday February 12, 2019 @07:53PM (#58112836)

    Every modern country I ever visited has extensive passenger rail systems that everybody uses. But we can't afford it.

    Military adventures in the Middle east costing hundreds of billions? No problem. But no new infrastructure. That's socialism or something.

    • by jandrese ( 485 )
      Keep in mind we're talking about a project that's roughly the same length as Paris to Liechtenstein. It's not a trivial undertaking.
      • by DogDude ( 805747 )
        Again. Compared to invading and occupying Middle Eastern countries for decades, that's still, relatively, pretty small potatoes. It's rail track. It's not a fucking trip to the moon.
      • by Anonymous Coward

        Here are the facts:

        Paris to Marseille is a 482 mile drive, compared to 479 miles to Liechtenstein. Today I can buy a Ouigo TGV ticket for 35 euros that will take me from Paris to Marseille in 3h21min.

        For comparison:

        • SF to LA is 381 miles.
        • A regular Amtrak train from NYC to Boston takes 4 hours, for a distance of 216 miles, and the Acela is only marginally faster (3h35min). This is in the "Northeast Corridor," with a population greater than 50 million (compared to France's total metropolitan population o
      • by Confused ( 34234 )

        Keep in mind we're talking about a project that's roughly the same length as Paris to Liechtenstein. It's not a trivial undertaking.

        Indeed. Paris - Zürich is about only 100km short of going to Liechtenstein, but you can board a TGV for this trip today. The main reason it stops at Zürich is that nobody cares to go to Liechtenstein.

        As the next poster mentioned, Paris - Marseille is fully operative. Same with München - Hamburg or Paris - Berlin. Those are all high-speed trains covering a comparable distance. And they were build through densely populated areas by countries where the opposition can't simply be thrown into jail

  • After construction for the first half of BART finished nearly 50 years ago, the BART extension to the South Bay will finally open in the next year or two. Here's a picture [nixonfoundation.org] of President Richard Nixon riding BART in 1972.
  • Looks like this so does not bode well for one of the cornerstones of the Green New Deal which envisions cris-crossing the USA with high speed rail. Next on the Deal's list for red pill economic reality - the paying for those who are "unwilling to work."

  • So how many billions were spent to 'rocket' people between Bakersfield & Merced, California?

    Who will pay to shuttle between those two locations, let alone pay a premium to do it 'high-speed'?

    • I know right, I had no idea there was so much demand to go to Fresno.

      He's an idea, add a bus lane along the Golden State Freeway for a tiny fraction of the cost. Pile up the rest of the $77B and burn it. You'd end up with something that would at least be done on time and not over budget.

  • As a replacement, how about an autonomous-only limited-access highway? 100 mph, autonomous cars only, on ramps and exits only at major cities. Much lower construction cost than rail.

  • Did gov. Newsome really brag that he's going to piss away snother $3.5BN in federal money on a train from nowhere to nowhere because he's opposed to giving it back to/not taking it from "Trump"?

  • Now, I really love aviation, I'm a frustrated pilot that never got his wings, I love flying a little nothing that's made of sticks and rags, but... we absolutely need hi-speed rail in the US. Maybe not so much in tightly-packed metro areas, but it sure as hell can work long-distance.

    But as long as the Airplane (and to some extent Car) manufacturers have any influence, rail is a non-starter.

  • So, um, where did the money go?

  • California have it in their grasp to be able to put in a TRUE high-speed with hyperloop. It would bring jobs, provide the fastest land transportation, and yet, these idiots are playing within tinker toys from other nations.
    What a bunch of maroons.
    • Hyperloop is delusional. Aside from having to deal with exactly the same right-of-way and environmental things conventional rail has to deal with, if you get a single seal failure (of the thousands that must exist) in the depressurized tube, the whole thing comes to a grinding halt. Laying the concrete ties and steel rail of a conventional rail system is the easy part and it requires much less maintenance than thousands of seals.
    • Comment removed based on user account deletion
  • No new technology is required. All they have to do is define and grade a right-of-way, acquire strips of land where needed, and order existing components made in Europe and Asia. Land csots could be mitigated by using existing routes like the broad median of I-5 in rural areas.

    If Democrats can't reclaim the spirit of Franklin Roosevelt and finish this project, they can't finish anything.

  • Which makes sense since it was supposed to finance a small percentage of the full project, not a bigger percentage of a scaled back project.

    From http://nymag.com/intelligencer... [nymag.com]

    "The San Joaquin segment was supposed to be finished by 2022, and the whole enchilada by 2029. But it’s not looking good, and if that first deadline is missed, the state could be exposed to the clawback of up to 3.5 billion in federal funds awarded the project in 2010 as part of the Obama administration’s economic stimul

  • (1) Let the corrupt US contractors build from Merced to Bakersfield. (2) Use existing tracks from Oakland to Merced. Electrify them. Extend from Emeryville across the Bay Bridge to a terminal in SF. (3) Hire a French, Japanese, or Chinese company to build from Bakersfield to LA Union Station. They know what they're doing as far as high-speed rail and will get it done at 1/4 the cost of "buying American."
  • While it makes sense in a few niche cases, rail/subway public transport is a technology who's time has come and gone. It requires too large of a footprint, is too complicated to administer, and to expensive to maintain. The future is going to be more fluid and decentralized transport, something like driverless bus and large vans tied to some kind of automated route management system. Think of something like Lyft/Uber, only with driverless vehicles of various sizes and MUCH more prevalent. A transportati

    • By your standard of rail being 1800s technology, wheels on roads are 10th century B.C. technology. The neat thing about rail is that it stays on the "road" at 150 mph or more, regardless of weather conditions. It's also easy to power electrically, since steel rails provide a current return path with no worries about charging batteries or maintaining them.

      The ideal system would actually be a hybrid of your system and rail -- driverless vehicles to bring passengers to stations, where shorter (2 or 3 car) dr

    • rail/subway public transport is a technology who's time has come and gone. It requires too large of a footprint

      Do you even know what a subway is? It is under the ground - footprint zero. As for surface rail, it requires a far smaller footprint than equivalent road. Each London Underground track for example can carry the equivalent of a three lane motorway, comparing both at full capapcity.

  • If China made less money would cruelty decrease or increase ? Can we effectively demand more civil liberties in China by threatening loss of trade with the US? And although communism sucks can anyone name a time in which any other form of government in China has been better than communism ? Vietnam is now far better off as a communist nation than it ever was under different kinds of government. In the US we are not supposed to notice these things. But can it be that in certain places under cer
  • I understand what the total cost has increased to but how much money is going to be thrown down the hold on the Merced to Bakersfield boondoggle just to finish it?

    My sister lives in Bakersfield and there is absolutely zero reason she would want to take that stupid train to any city between Bakersfield and Merced.

    What's worse is the stupid California voters voted for this thing (yes, I know they only allowed 10B).

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