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Microsoft Windows Businesses Cloud The Almighty Buck XBox (Games)

Microsoft's Q4 Earnings and 2020 Expectations Are Through the Roof (windowsreport.com) 130

Slashdot reader John Nautu shares a report from Windows Report: Microsoft released their Q4 earnings and it's (almost) all good news. The giant registered amazing growth on all departments, increasing its share price by one third. It was a record fiscal year for Microsoft, and the numbers exceeded all expectations:

- Revenue was $33.7 billion and increased 12%
- Operating income was $12.4 billion and increased 20%
- Net income was $13.2 billion GAAP and $10.6 billion non-GAAP, and increased 49% and 21%, respectively
- Diluted earnings per share was $1.71 GAAP and $1.37 non-GAAP, and increased 50% and 21%, respectively
- GAAP results include a $2.6 billion net income tax benefit explained in the Non-GAAP Definition section below

Of course, Microsoft's partnership with many industry leading companies also played a role in the constant development and improvement of their products. Despite Azure leading the way, Office 365, Windows, and Microsoft Teams also contributed to the growth. [Teams recently overtook Slack with 13 million daily users.]
It's not all good news though. The Verge notes that the company's gaming business has stalled. "Gaming revenue declined by 10 percent this quarter, alongside Xbox software and services revenue decline of 3 percent."

Ryan Duguid, Chief Evangelist at Nintex, said the company is planning some big things for next year: "In 2020, we expect to see Microsoft double down in three key areas to further differentiate from the leading tech giants: AI and ML (across the entire platform), data (infinitely expandable, cost-effective, and supportive of ODI), and modern workplace (productivity software)." In after-hours trading, Microsoft shares gained more than 1%. "The closing price gave Microsoft a market capitalization of $1.045 trillion, the only U.S. company worth more than $1 trillion," reports MarketWatch.
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Microsoft's Q4 Earnings and 2020 Expectations Are Through the Roof

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  • Imagine how much money they could make if they actually made some decent software.

    We all know they could do it if they wanted to.

    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by Tablizer ( 95088 )

      Imagine how much money they could make if they actually made some decent software.

      Haven't you learned? Sucking in IT is job security. If M$ made everything logical, factored, and simple; they'd be too easy to clone by competitors and OSS.

      Think of MS-Word. If it were a clean standard, then clones would eat Word's lunch. But to be fully compatible means you have to match Word's bugs, glitches, and oddities. Therefore, clones are only 99% compatible and nobody wants to deal with the confusion of 1% of their do

      • Re:Even more money (Score:5, Informative)

        by Stormwatch ( 703920 ) <rodrigogirao@noSPAM.hotmail.com> on Thursday July 18, 2019 @08:43PM (#58948934) Homepage

        OpenDocument was going to be that clean, universal standard. Then Microsoft bribed ISO members to approve their own unusable OOXML as well, which took the wind off OpenDocument's sails.

    • by Bert64 ( 520050 )

      Well that's the whole point...
      Most of their customers are locked in, and will buy wether the software is any good or not. If they invested significantly in improvements, then profit would actually be reduced as there is very little scope for them to gain marketshare.

  • I don't know why, but almost all companies seem to migrate to Office 365 and now paying subscription.
    • by dio5 ( 72877 ) on Thursday July 18, 2019 @08:30PM (#58948870) Homepage

      I take it that you never had to manage an Exchange server then? When the boss's mailbox hits 20 GB, on prem thats an "oh shit" in O365 it's no problem boss. Plus managing an Exchnage farm sucks. MS is offering to do it at a fraction of the cost. There are other reasons too but from the IT Pro side it's I'll pay you to make this headache go away.

      • by gmack ( 197796 )

        And introduce new headaches when someone else on the subnet starts spamming and suddenly you can't email people. The other issue is that you lose the ability to control the antispam side of things. Need an exception for an important partner that happens to have a bad email setup or happens to be on some blacklist? Nothing you can do about it. Those emails are just gone.

        My job 2 years ago involved maintaining a mail server (thankfully not exchange) and much of my time was spend making exceptions to the S

    • I don't know why, but almost all companies seem to migrate to Office 365 and now paying subscription.

      1.) Algorithms on HFT supercomputers determine a companies stock price. The goal of a company IS NEVER TO MAKE MONEY. It is to RAISE THE STOCK PRICE. Wall Street picks the CEO to do accounting tricks and outsource people for short term quarterly gains for all eternity.

      When you need to keep the stock price high each quarter there is no room for software upgrades even if it saves money. You want no variation in highs or lows so a constant monthly subscription keeps costs constant for the algorithms

      2. Subscrip

    • It's easy to deploy, has good user/license/policy management and can open/edit/save modern office formats which is required by any medium to large business.
  • by voislav98 ( 1004117 ) on Thursday July 18, 2019 @08:17PM (#58948810)
    Revenue was $33.7 billion, it's a mature company that does not expect crazy growth, so a conservative estimate would be $100 billion (3 times revenue). You can stretch that to maybe $200 billion. But who in their right mind would buy the shares at 1 trillion valuation? The times we live in.
    • I just realized this is quarterly revenue. Still that values the company at $400 billion, still way short of a trillion.
      • Are there many other companies you think you could buy that would return your purchase price as quickly as Microsoft? Maybe there are a few (Apple, Google, and the like) but I suspect they're also billion dollar companies or on that level.

        There's going to be fuzzy estimates and uncertainty in all of that valuation, but if there were a magical company where their net profit allowed you to cover the purchase cost of the company after only two years, everyone would start buying that company as quickly as th
      • by jezwel ( 2451108 )
        Looks like some $10B a quarter in profit, so $40B a year, which means 25years to pay itself off.

        Or - @ $1T cap, a 4% ROI. That seems a little low for an investment, but I'm no expert.

      • If you value by profit, it's typically 7 to 10 times annual EBITDA; with $20 billion clear, that puts them at $560 to $800 billion valuation. Their current valuation really doesn't have a lot of extra baked in...
    • They are trading at a PE of just on 30 and a forward PE of 26. The pricing is actually quite reasonable given it is still a growth company. current prices are only slightly high, 1 trillion actually seems about right.
    • You should use profit to calculate valuation instead of revenue. Revenue is an ok way to estimate future profits in cases when there is something weird with the profit number (like they have zero profit because they are in growth mode, or they had a one time profitable event that inflated profits or something).
  • Well, yeah, not too surprising. We're nearing the end of the Xbox One life cycle, and they've announced their next gen console. So, it seems like a slight drop-off would be expected.

    Let's see if they avoid screwing up quite so badly with the launch of their next console like they did with the Xbox One (worthless Kinect accessory, always-connected DRM fiasco, terrible product messaging, dismissive execs, etc).

  • by Tough Love ( 215404 ) on Thursday July 18, 2019 @09:02PM (#58949018)

    Don't get carried away by the hype. Through the roof doesn't describe MSFT's earnings so much as its share price. P/E of 30, historically astronomical by the standards of mature corporations. In simple terms, if you by these shares you don't have any realistic expectation of having them pay for themselves in dividends. Instead you hope that somebody will buy them from you later at an even higher price, and they will buy for one reason alone: they hope that somebody will in turn buy from them at an even higher price. The technical term is bagholder. When stocks of mature corporations get like this, it has always ended in tragedy. Every time. Of course this time will be different, won't it? Won't it?

    By all means take a flyer but not with your retirement savings. And keep in mind that the PC market continues to shrink, Microsoft's productivity monopoly along with it.

    • Don't get carried away by the hype. Through the roof doesn't describe MSFT's earnings so much as its share price. P/E of 30, historically astronomical by the standards of mature corporations.

      Year 2008.
      Subprime financial crisis.
      Dow Jones crashed.

      Just before it crashed the Dow Jones index was around 14,000

      Today, the same Dow Jones Index is at 27,223, and is going up.

      Something is telling me things are going very wrong, very fast !

  • by Qbertino ( 265505 ) <moiraNO@SPAMmodparlor.com> on Thursday July 18, 2019 @11:20PM (#58949478)

    ... for the first time in roughly 20 years. The last Windows I personally productively used was Windows 2000. The company I just joined is M$ through and through - I'm the only Linux guy in 25 and the only web developer. Mr. IT I sit and work with is an M$ guy through and through and we get along perfectly. We decided to get me a Windows machine so I wouldn't have to bother with groupware and integration and leave that to him when problems occur.

    Here are some of my observatoins so far:

    - Windows CLI is as shitty and unwieldy as it was 25 years ago in the DOS age. Powershell is neat and powerful, but it's not the default CLI, you have to install it and it has its totally own way of doing things. Chocolately or whatever its called (think Homebrew for Windows) soothes the pain a little but is no where near the real Linux/macOS/*nix experience.

    - M$ owns you and your system. Its well disuised but it shows as soon as you go one or two steps below the surface (pun not intended but welcome and fitting).

    - Edge with Bing is neat in that it doesn't give a damn about copyright stuff and you can search and download images with one click. That's because everyone is looking over at Chrome. Neat. :-) I use Edge+Bing for image searching exclusively.

    - Integration and usability are surprisingly good. We have MS Teams, OneNote, Outlook and Whatnot (TM) and even though I havent used Outlook in 20 years and never really liked it, work has been done. I even get this "Ribbon" thing M$ has had going on since - I don't know - 15 years ago or something. There even is a macOS Exposé like feature and some tiny bit of defauit window snapping like in Ubuntu. Nice. VSCode is right at home and I use it on Linux too, so no problems here, CLI integration aside.

    Conclusion (so far): Windows and M$ have been changing ever since Nadella - no news here - and AFAICT it's been for the better. They're still the dark side, make no mistake - they wan't us dead - but it seems they don't treat their minions like absolute shite anymore like they used to. A more full-stack walled-garden approach like Apple or Google, sort of. Their current hardware strategy reflects that. In short, their products aren't total shite anymore. I presume that reflects in their current revenue.

    As a side effect I expect more people to transition into an "all digital" approach simply because their favorite dark side overlords lead them there. That maybe doing some good. And I now have a Windows box. I wouldn't have thought that would happen ever again, but here we are. I won't waste my time learning the details - Linux is my home - but I'm using it and it's even pleasant at times. Surprise.

    My 2 eurocents.

    • by blind biker ( 1066130 ) on Friday July 19, 2019 @01:57AM (#58949886) Journal

      Conclusion (so far): Windows and M$ have been changing ever since Nadella - no news here - and AFAICT it's been for the better.

      Every single time Windows 10 is updating (and consequently interrupting my work) I fucking KNOW it's not been for the better.

      • ... my very young Padawan.
        You didn't see Windows 98 or Windows ME.
        *That* was bad. ... We lost a lot of good men back then.
        ( Obligatory South Park Reference [youtube.com] )

        • I actually did see (and extensively use) Windows 98. Also 95 and of course 3.11. Hell, I even had to service a system running Windows 286.

      • Every single time Windows 10 is updating (and consequently interrupting my work) I fucking KNOW it's not been for the better.

        If Windows updating is interrupting your work then you are doing something very wrong. On my PC windows updates in the background and I get a notification that at some point in the next few days I should plan to reboot.

        Frankly I've tried working for 3 days straight but these days I split that up with breaks to take a shit.

      • Every single time Windows 10 is updating (and consequently interrupting my work) I fucking KNOW it's not been for the better.

        I get an popup once a day that cannot be ignored, it blocks all window access until I click OK. I set the network connection to metered, but this only slows it down. A batch file I use to kill a few processes will fail due to a lack of permissions, but still removes the dialogue box. I just kill musnotinotificationux.exe,musnotification.exe and windowsupdatebox.exe every 20 second

    • by Anonymous Coward

      The upcoming version of Win10 has some improvements to the command line experience. They're putting in a better frontend for command line with a tabbed UI and some basic quality of life features and you can choose which tab launches into which shell (CLI, PS, bash, etc.).

    • I've just installed the Ubuntu on windows stuff (runs native ubuntu on the windows kernel) and use the ubuntu shell. So you really don't have to use any of the non standard shells unless you want to....
    • Windows CLI is as shitty and unwieldy

      Windows has a CLI? I think you're Windowsing wrong.

  • $640 billion ought to be enough profits for anyone.

  • All this, because of escaping market parts in economy, mostly result of manipulations, not good software. It's only a start, btw.

    • by Tablizer ( 95088 )

      result of manipulations, not good software.

      How is this different than any company? Given a choice among dumping most your resources into marketing, lawyers, or quality; it appears the first two are more profitable in the longer run. Humans 101.

      • by edis ( 266347 )

        Also that, why institutional support of market part in the concept of market economy is both necessity and reality. Only its intensity is left for considerations. I would say, in the end of this day, it wasn't sufficient.

        OTOH, given how severe control by MS of your business desktop, business mail, business office suite and your business wallet is established, I'd coin new breath into the realistic alternatives to this model of future personal computer. With overpriced options not being very potent neither,

  • Winblows as a subscription, you can't go wrong with that!

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