Electric Vehicles Close To 'Tipping Point' of Mass Adoption (theguardian.com) 356
An anonymous reader quotes a report from The Guardian: Electric vehicles are close to the "tipping point" of rapid mass adoption thanks to the plummeting cost of batteries, experts say. Global sales rose 43% in 2020, but even faster growth is anticipated when continuing falls in battery prices bring the price of electric cars dipping below that of equivalent petrol and diesel models, even without subsidies. The latest analyses forecast that to happen some time between 2023 and 2025.
The tipping point has already been passed in Norway, where tax breaks mean electric cars are cheaper. The market share of battery-powered cars soared to 54% in 2020 in the Nordic country, compared with less than 5% in most European nations. Prof Tim Lenton, at the University of Exeter, said: "There's been a tipping point in one country, Norway, and that's thanks to some clever and progressive tax incentives. Then consumers voted with their wallets."
Data from Lenton's latest study showed that in 2019, electric vehicles in Norway were 0.3% cheaper and had 48% market share. In the UK, where electric cars were 1.3% more expensive, market share was just 1.6%. Once the line of price parity was crossed, Lenton said, "bang -- sales go up. We were really struck by how non-linear the effect seems to be." BloombergNEF's analysis predicts lithium-ion battery costs will fall to the extent that electric cars will match the price of petrol and diesel cars by 2023, while Lenton suggests 2024-2025. McKinsey's Global Energy Perspective 2021, published on January 15, forecasts that "electric vehicles are likely to become the most economic choice in the next five years in many parts of the world."
The tipping point has already been passed in Norway, where tax breaks mean electric cars are cheaper. The market share of battery-powered cars soared to 54% in 2020 in the Nordic country, compared with less than 5% in most European nations. Prof Tim Lenton, at the University of Exeter, said: "There's been a tipping point in one country, Norway, and that's thanks to some clever and progressive tax incentives. Then consumers voted with their wallets."
Data from Lenton's latest study showed that in 2019, electric vehicles in Norway were 0.3% cheaper and had 48% market share. In the UK, where electric cars were 1.3% more expensive, market share was just 1.6%. Once the line of price parity was crossed, Lenton said, "bang -- sales go up. We were really struck by how non-linear the effect seems to be." BloombergNEF's analysis predicts lithium-ion battery costs will fall to the extent that electric cars will match the price of petrol and diesel cars by 2023, while Lenton suggests 2024-2025. McKinsey's Global Energy Perspective 2021, published on January 15, forecasts that "electric vehicles are likely to become the most economic choice in the next five years in many parts of the world."
Tipping point (Score:4, Funny)
Re:Tipping point (Score:4, Informative)
YMMV.
Re:Tipping point (Score:5, Insightful)
I'm guessing adoption is more exponential than linear.
As more people are exposed to electric cars through their friends and word of mouth, the more electric cars they're going to buy.
Two percent might not sound much but remember that a lily that doubles its size every day will only take six days to go from covering 2.2% of the pond to covering 100% of it.
Re: (Score:2)
As more people are exposed to electric cars through their friends and word of mouth, the more electric cars they're going to buy.
A friend of mine did show me the Chevy Bolt he bought. Based on my impression of the ride and build quality, it seemed like he got $20k worth of car, and $20k worth of batteries.
I'm not really sure what the value proposition is supposed to be with these things, unless you do an absolute shitload of driving, or really feel some deep moral obligation to own a vehicle that doesn't burn gas. My current car gets 31 city / 39 highway MPG, and the $40k a Bolt costs could buy a lot of gas.
Re:Tipping point (Score:5, Interesting)
Adoption of new technologies follow an S curve.
1st phase: Early adoption is exponential as demand is higher than supply. The curve follows how fast the manufacturer can ramp up production.
2nd phase: Mass market transition is linear as supply is increasing at a rate to match the demand.
3rd phase: Market saturation, the curve slowly tends towards 100% as nearly everybody has the technology.
You can see S curves in all roll-outs of new technology. Such as the transition from horse and cart, to the automobile. The transition time varies per technology but 10 to 20 years is a ball-park figure for going form 0% to 100%.
BEVs are starting to reach the mass market tipping point because:
1. Governments have set ban dates for the sale of conventional fossil fuelled cars.
2. Buyers are evaluating whether buying a new BEV is suitable for them.
3. Buyers are delaying the purchase of a car, instead waiting for a suitable BEV to become available.
Consequently:
1. The sales numbers of new conventional fossil fuelled cars are depressed. Mainly people say this is due to COVID-19 but BEV sales are an increasing factor at play as well.
2. The top selling vehicles are BEVs in a number of countries such as the Tesla Model 3 in December in the UK.
Production rate of BEVs is increasing:
1. Tesla is completing at least 2 new factories this year.
2. Tesla could reach a production rate of 1 million BEVs in 2023. Current rate is 500 thousand BEVs per year.
The BEV future is coming faster than people expect.
Re:Tipping point (Score:5, Interesting)
EVs are cheaper (TCO) and cleaner than ICE. My Tesla saves me $5,000 a year on fuel and maintenance. Charged with my solar power so emission free. What's not to like?
Re: (Score:3)
High end extreme car users can talk about saving $5000 a year on fuel and maintenance, and that justifies your purchase price. Those of us who average $500 a year on fuel and maintenance won't see the appeal until the purchase price is cheaper than ICE.
Re: (Score:3)
BEVs are old tech. They dominated early automobiles because the technology was so much simpler.
They lost out to ICEs as manufacturing technology improved, and it became possible to manufacture usefully reliable ICEVs, because the battery technology of the day did not permit anywhere near the same kind of range. BEVs continued to be used for some niche applications (fork lift, milk float) throughout.
Now we have the battery technology for BEVs to dominate again. If we can make the batteries "eco-friendly" the
Re:Tipping point (Score:5, Insightful)
They are deficient in one use case now very long distance driving with minimal travel time.
In all other use cases, Electric beats ICEV hollow, low maintenance, having a full range ready every single morning, lower noise, better acceleration, better handling, dual, triple and quad prime mover configurations, lower fuel costs... BEV beats ICEV in all of them. So it is incorrect to ignore all these wins and focus on one loss, range.
Prognosis is, even that loss is being addresses, and addressed seriously by BEV makers. Price is also expected to fall precipitously making it more affordable.
On the ICEV side, they are completely unequipped to meet the challenge or even fight to a draw. They can't reduce oil changes and transmission flushes any more than what they have achieved over the last 100 years. They are not going to beat BEV in acceleration. They can't use multiple prime mover without becoming a hybrid. They can't coax any more fuel efficiency.
Time will tell, people compare convenience with cost, and at some price point they will sacrifice the long range inconvenience.
Re: (Score:3)
Now a days BMW has gone to 15,000 mile oil changes, and many other cars are in 7500 miles. Great improvement. Mostly timing chains now, no more timing belt replacements. Still using serpentine belt to d
Re: (Score:2)
Yeah, Norway shows that if you tax the hell out of gasoline cars and give incentives for electric ones, you can artificially increase demand for them. I'd imagine that the Biden administration will do something similar, although at a smaller scale.
That said, we really need nationwide charging infrastructure for mass adoption of electric cars to become practical. Adding a couple of electric car chargers at your local shopping center is good "green" PR for now, but you're going to need dozens of them at every
Re: (Score:2)
Well, Norway is, by most of the metrics that matter, in the top 2-3 richest countries in the world by population income (typically competing with Luxembourg). If a majority of your population can pay down a new and heavily kitted up electric car in less than two years then yeah, tipping points start to depend on supply and product quality. For the rest of the world personal finances will play a somewhat larger role.
Re: (Score:2)
YMMV.
I see what you did there.
Re: (Score:2)
Just like "The Year of Linux on the Desktop"
I mean it's similar to electric cars in that it makes haters irrationally angry. But that's about where the similarities end.
Bus seriously though, can one of the angry people who usually posts on electric car threads let me know why they make you so angry? I have no real horse in this race as a car owner, what with not being one. As a pedestrian, the lack of fumes is pretty nice though.
Re: (Score:2)
Re: Tipping point (Score:3)
What I find hard to understand is why my left wing friends love it too. It seems to me that the subsidies could be spent far more effectively elsewhere if combating climate change is the goal.
Re: (Score:2)
Until a battery pack keeps good range (see next item) for 100,000+ miles, I'll have to replace a rather expensive component of the car early in its lifetime.
It's as if you've not read even the summary.
Re: (Score:2)
It's as if you've not read even the summary.
Well, this is slashdot after all. Be glad he knows this is about electric cars, some can’t finish the headline.
Re: (Score:2)
Which part of the summary do you think I haven't read? The one relying on a crystal ball?
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
Bless your heart, aren't you precious?
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
Have you looked at how much a new transmission costs for a 100,000 mile gasoline car, or at total maintenance costs in general? Replacing all those belts, clutches and stuff over the lifetime of a car isn't cheap and the chances of a major component failure (eg. transmission) are quite high.
I bet it adds up to a battery pack or two.
Re:Tipping point (Score:5, Insightful)
"...they're still government putting its thumb on the scale to favor electric vehicles..."
Yeah, and for the good. Governments do this all the time, and they should. Would you complain that building highways "tips the scales" toward cars and away from horses, or that building hospitals "tips the scales" in favor of health and longer lifetimes? Our society, that you benefit from, exists because the government tips these scales. Furthermore, tipping the scales toward renewable energy is critical and urgent and don't ignore the "scale tipping" that benefits traditional businesses and energy sources. Your objections are ridiculous.
"I'll probably wait until electric vehicles are cost-competitive without government taking money from X to make electric cars look cheaper."
And government subsidies are transitory; they are designed to create a forcing function to enable the condition that you are waiting for.
But you're not waiting because you're an economic, free-thinking critical powerhouse but merely because you're lazy.
Re: (Score:2)
Thank you for making it crystal clear who the irrationally angry people in this conversation are.
Re: (Score:2)
Thanks for not providing a single counter-argument to anything he said.
Re: (Score:3)
He didn't actually make any relevant, coherent arguments. Governments generally build roads to meet demand, not to create it -- or else they get mocked for building a road to nowhere [wikipedia.org]. Governments build very few hospitals in the US; private owners do. His arguments were fact-free and emotionally driven.
Re:Tipping point (Score:5, Insightful)
Australia here - the above statement is an anathema.
You might think private health is good but you are wrong.
Re:Tipping point (Score:5, Insightful)
Governments generally build roads to meet demand, not to create it
I demand electric cars! The sooner the better!
Governments build very few hospitals in the US; private owners do.
That's nothing to be proud of.
Re:Tipping point (Score:5, Informative)
My electric car has 90k miles on it, and still going strong.
Battery Lifetime is a solved problem, and was only an issue on early models that didnt do thermal protection systems (Nissan Leaf).
Fast charging is common across all the interstates throughout the country, and only getting better daily.
Petroleum subsidies are the only thing keeping them cheaper than battery cars at the moment, so why do you complain when the subsidies are just SHIFTING to safer alternatives!
Re: (Score:2)
Petroleum subsidies make carbon-burning cars cheaper? What timeline do you come from? In this one, states are panicking over gasoline taxes no longer being sufficient to support road maintenance. They're looking at other mechanisms to pay for all the wear caused by, yes, electric vehicles.
Re: (Score:2)
For anything that gets combined 25MPG or more, there is an extra fee. For an electric vehicle, that fee is higher still.
Annual registration for a Mini Cooper is more than for a 25 year old F-150 that gets 14MPG, strictly due to this new fee.
"You're not buying enough gas. Fuck you, pay us more."
Re:Tipping point (Score:4, Informative)
While a typical pickup truck or EV will do more damage then a corolla or civic, neither is doing much damage compared to your big freight trucks that do all the delivering. That's where the real damage is.
Check this out https://www.vabike.org/vehicle... [vabike.org]
Re: (Score:2)
Petroleum subsidies are the only thing keeping them cheaper than battery cars.
Petroleum products are heavily taxed, at least in the EU. Taxes are typically more than 50% of the price one pays for gasoline at a pump.
Re:Tipping point (Score:5, Informative)
Can we talk about battery pack lifetime?
You seem to have low expectations of what the lifetime is likely to be. Not sure why.
Here's how the numbers work for me and my EV, a Renault Zoe:
- Annual mean range: 220 miles (245 summer, 200 winter)
- Expected full discharge cycles before battery state of health is 80%: 750
- Expected mileage at 80% SoH: 165,000
- Expected annual mean range at 80% SoH: 176 (196 summer, 160 winter) -- this would still be enough for most of my needs, but of course not yours
- My average mileage: 10miles/day -- cf UK average of 20, US average of 30
- Expected time till 80% SoH: 45 years (!!) -- cf 22 years for average UK driver, 15 years for average US driver
Re: (Score:3)
Electric cars don't make me angry, but I can explain why I don't have one, and don't expect to buy one as my primary car soon: battery pack lifetime, range, and cost.
Until a battery pack keeps good range (see next item) for 100,000+ miles, I'll have to replace a rather expensive component of the car early in its lifetime.
Tesla has had a "million mile battery" for a while now.
https://www.google.com/search?... [google.com]
Most electric cars don't provide ~400 miles of range on a charge. When I drive to see family, I'll drive 600 miles or more in a day,
a) You admit that some of them do.
b) A charge to 80% can be done in 30 minutes on a super charger. Surely you need to eat during a 600 mile drive.
(nb. even more powerful chargers are appearing all the time. The newest ones are 150kW - 3x the previous "super chargers")
The way things are going you'll run out of excuses either this year or next.
Re: (Score:3)
In the lab. For a bit more than a year. Lots of people have promising battery technology in the lab that fails before it gets to market.
a) I admit no such thing. The longest range I can see on any commercially available vehicle is the Tesla Model X's EPA-estimated 371 miles, and that is an $80,000 car befor
Re: (Score:2)
My problem is similar. I don't have a place to charge. I assume that problem will be fixed in the future as more places have chargers (it's a social problem, not a technological problem), but for now it's still a problem.
Re: (Score:2)
That's so true, he should have used the word 'ignorant'
perhaps even 'intentionally ignorant'
Re: (Score:2)
"Linux on your desktop" is not going to happen. Most people are incapable of using a professional tool adequately.
"Linux in your pocket" has happened years ago, but it is for a massively dumbed-down version.
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
Re:Tipping point (Score:5, Informative)
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:3)
Re: (Score:2, Informative)
Re: (Score:2)
Who denies this? It is explicitly what is being done, and it's being done because it's a benefit to society.
Also, it's being done because we want and need a renewable future and because we need to accelerate transition to it. It's only bullshit to ignorant people.
Re: (Score:3)
thanks to some clever and progressive tax incentives. Then consumers voted with their wallets.
Until you take away the tax breaks. When Denmark ended tax breaks for electric vehicles, sales dropped significantly.
When people buy electric vehicles without any special tax breaks, then you have accomplished something important. Until then, it's all just bullshit, and you're just using the taxes I pay to bribe people into buying electric vehicles.
Sure if you go with old numbers form ten years ago. I you bother to try and find newer data you get this: https://cphpost.dk/?p=118950 [cphpost.dk]
Small country sales (Score:4, Insightful)
Once the line of price parity was crossed, Lenton said, "bang -- sales go up
Only if there are vehicles available to buy.
For EVs to really become common, the suppliers have to make them in sufficient quantity. That means not only transitioning away from factories making traditional internal combustion vehicles, but arranging for all the relevant component makers to do the same and at the same time. Synchronising all the suppliers quantities with the needs of the manufacturers. That is not something that happens without considerable organisation. While a small market such as Norway (population: 5.3 million) can achieve that, it takes much longer in large countries that sell as many cars in a few weeks as Norwegians buy in a year.
Re:Small country sales (Score:4, Interesting)
Re: (Score:2)
Plus, auto manufacture is actually organised on a continental and sometimes global basis. No one is making Leafs or i3s or Teslas or id3s or Zoes in Norway for Norway using only Norwegian components.
Re: (Score:2)
GP's wording is slightly off (no cars are produced in Norway), but the point stands: it's much easier for the car industry to reach the tipping point in a small market like Norway than it is in a large market like the US.
Re: (Score:2)
Right, which is the giant omission of the article. The transition to EV is not gated by base economics, as the article claims, it is gated by technical issues. As those technical issues resolve, some economic issues come into play and the article pretends that these little issues are all there is.
People won't buy electric when electric won't do what they need, no matter what the cost is.
Not just Sales (Score:3)
But how many of us live in locations that make it next to impossible to use overnight charging? Not everyone has off-road space or a garage or similar in which to deploy high-current solutions. That means someone wanting to buy an electric vehicle either has to go the hybrid route [which is of course a distinct improvement over ICE from an environmental perspective] or be lucky enough to work for an employer that offers EV charging via their work parking lot, or come up with another solution - like driving somewhere to charge.
We can do all this today, of course. But with gas stations being well distributed and well established, I think this works against EV adoption.
So yes, let's by all means continue and accelerate the push towards EV. But that won't succeed unless and until we put the infrastructure in place to support it. Remember, the current gasoline-based infrastructure has had more than 100 years to perfect fuel distribution. The EV community has to fast-track that to become successful.
Re: (Score:2)
A 20A, 208V plug should be installable for $2-3k in even the most challenging condo locations; if done properly, subsequent installs are even cheaper. That would provide over 100 miles range in 8 hours for a Model Y. If you park on the street or rent then of course it is harder (and/or more expensive), but it is still possible.
Re:Not just Sales (Score:4, Informative)
I think you are seriously underestimating what a challenging condo location is.
Note; I _now_ have an electric car and I live in a house. I couldn't have had one when I lived in my condo.
Here are the issues I would have had at my condo
1. it wasn't quite onstreet parking; but it was a private road with no assigned parking.
2. electric was providd separately to each unit; to get power, i would have had to had a subpanel run out the front of the house, underground whatever the requisite depth would be to then tunnel under said private street as we were only allowed to park on one side; which happed to be not the side my condo was on
3.) putting the plug in would then have needed approval from the condo board to be put on "my neighbors law" (it was communal lawn and groundskeeping)
4.) back to item #1; I don't know how I would have prevented anyone from then charging and using my power from my house to charge their car, i'm not that much of a good samaritan to provide anyone in the neighborhood a free charge.
Re: (Score:3)
I don't know how
Just in general, it's probably not a good idea to assume that your own inability to think of solutions to problems is a fundamental limitation of the universe.
It's fine if you don't want to do a thing, but trying to claim the thing is impossible because you can't figure out how is different than saying "I don't want to figure out how to do it."
In the case of the specific issues you listed, assuming you wanted to solve those problems (which, I understand you don't want to do) the real step one is "talk to yo
Re: (Score:3)
The number of fuel stations in the UK has been in steady decline over the last 40 years, In the last 20 years the supermarkets became the dominant player which killed off a lot of independent fuel stations. In my town, 2 out of the 5 fuel stations closed down.
Also improved fuel efficiently of vehicles and higher fuel prices has helped to restrict the demand for fuel.
In the UK, both BP and Shell are deploying EV charging stations to their fuel stations. It is obvious that fuel stations will not survive the r
Re: (Score:3)
For example, the Tesla Model 3 Long Range consumes about 265wH per mile [ev-database.uk], so 1KwH gets you approximately 4 miles of range.
Meanwhile, this NPR article [npr.org] suggests that in 2016, cars, trucks, minivans and SUVs covered a record 3.22 *trillion* miles.
Now, obviously, we're not talking about a complete overnight switch from gasoline/ICE propulsion to all-EV transport... but if the average number of miles covered has increased to say 4 trillion miles,
Choice (Score:2)
>"We were really struck by how non-linear the effect seems to be."
Doesn't surprise me at all. I think there are really two factors holding back adoption the most. The first is price. The second is choice. Both have held me back, and I suspect most people. I don't like the price or choices yet. And I am willing to pay more, but I want a car that has ALL the best features and design of what I have now (a G37S Japanese luxury sports sedan) at an affordable price. The Tesla S has the features (far mor
Re: (Score:2)
Re:Choice (Score:4, Insightful)
As obvious and clear as all this is to anyone who has looked, the author(s) of this article have completely ignored it and there are actual reasons why these choices don't exist yet. Wait a year or two.
Also, I don't agree that a Model S compares to an Infiniti sedan...as a car. As a rolling computer, sure. Early adopters are always extreme advocates, wait until actual car manufacturers begin to make EVs, no one will compare Teslas to prestige brands then.
forced tipping point (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:forced tipping point (Score:4, Insightful)
Price Parity not all at once for all segments. (Score:4, Insightful)
But we need to remember price parity will not be achieved for all the market segments within the same country all at the same time. What I mean is for the F segment (>125,000 USD) roadsters price parity was achieved eight years ago in USA. Then came E segment (60K + sedans and SUVs) and price parity was achieved five years ago. D segment (45K +) sedans and CUVs) came just last year.
The holy grail is the C segment, 30k+ sedans and CUVs the accords and camrys the mainstay of middle class.
That segment is about to be breached.
The Osborne Effect [cleantechnica.com] will also a play role. This link has some good trend lines on BEV prices segmentwise.
Re:Price Parity not all at once for all segments. (Score:5, Insightful)
The truth is gasoline cars are the fundamentally flawed compromised vehicles, that we put up with lots of nonsense because they are cheap.
Internal combustion engine does not produce any torque at 0 rpm and can not move the car from the rest on its own. It needs a complex transmission that allows the engine to run and carefully engage the wheels through a clutch.
Internal combustion engine is efficient only in a narrow band of RPM. You need to add more gears and more complicated transmission to coax more efficiency from the prime mover.
IC engine is powered by a very hazardous substance, the gasoline, sold only at gas stations. One has to have a tank big enough to reduce the number of trips to the gas stations, and people usually fill up the tank and run to empty. They can not be guaranteed a certain number of miles in the tank, every morning.
Burning of gasoline produces air pollution and noise pollution in the urban centers.
These are the undisputable facts, I am deliberately staying away from battery manufacturing pollution or power plant pollution and global warming issues. Completely disregarding them, we can still argue the electric car is far superior.
The only reason we put up with ICEV is because they are cheap. Cheaper than electric cars, and its fuel tank is quite cheap to make bigger. That's it. As battery prices fall ICEV will become totally untenable. For a brief transition period there will be opportunity for car rental companies to provide Netflix model of subscription based ICEV rentals. Pay X$ a month and you get Y days per month, unused days roll over to a max of Z days per year, plug your Electric car to a low rate 120 V plug and drive off, drop off the rental and drive away in your BEV. This business opportunity will come in, spike up and gradually wane because super long distance endurance batteries will become cheap enough.
Re: (Score:3)
Yeah just imagine shifting gears on your blender, pulling the starter cord on your drill, refueling your refrigerator, cleaning the carburetor in your hair dryer, oiling your fan, and dying from all the associated fumes. Electric is just better, so long as you have access to sufficient electricity.
Oiling your fan (Score:3)
oiling your fan
I had to laugh at this one, because it is something that I've actually done. But then, if you expect to get 20+ years out of a fan, oiling those bearings can be a good idea.
But yeah, consider shit like chainsaws, edgers, and lawnmowers. Things that are traditionally gasoline powered. Unless you're a professional and need one that you can run 8+ hours a day, lots of them are going electric, because then you don't need to mess around with small engines.
We're several years away, if ever. (Score:4, Insightful)
So many people rent and only have street parking available so they can't charge it overnight, and charging is too slow.
Re: (Score:3)
Most people I know with electric cars only rent and only have street parking available. Does your government not give you the ability to request a charging station to be installed in your street? Maybe you should elect a government with forethought and one who invests in infrastructure for the future.
Electrical grid and generation capacity (Score:3)
The one aspect that articles like this rarely discuss: It's great that EVs are selling well, but we also need the grid and generation capacity to support them. With European countries dismantling their nuclear plants, it's not clear where this capacity will come from. In the US, many grids are already near capacity, especially in summer months.
OTOH, if you work from home, and have solar cells on your roof, you can charge your own car. This makes fuels costs nearly zero (except, of course, the cost of the solar installation). Add in tax incentives, and buying an EV is pretty much a no-brainer, if you don't drive long distances.
Re: (Score:3)
In fact, this issue *is* widely discussed. What's not widely discussed is that the power usage of most developed countries actually fluctuates quite dramatically from decade to decade, and the introduction of EVs is not the largest change in demand there will ever have been, especially given the relevant time frames (20 to 30 years). The grid can be built out to cope, and the incentives will be there in the form of increased demand for the product, electricity.
That tax thing (Score:2)
It seems to me that offering a tax break that has to be paid back over some period, say three years following purchase, would cost the government less than a rounding error but produce the desired effect seen in other countries.
Re: (Score:2)
Choice 2.0 (Score:2, Insightful)
That's one of the re
Re: (Score:3)
That's one of the reasons I don't care for the arbitrary fuel-efficiency regulations made by the non-technical politicos and prefer choice. "Pollution taxes" for certain choices are understandable, but I don't like when the focus is on the tailpipe versus ALL the other environmental costs that come with electric vehicles (has anyone investigated those yet?). Just moving any impacts out of sight is silly.
No, it's phenomenally stupid to not move the impacts out of sight, or more to the point out of people's l
Why a "tipping" point? (Score:3)
A tipping point implies that we reached a threshold where things naturally change direction.
It is common with communication networks for instance, where the more people are part of the network, the better the network is. It doesn't seem to be the case with electric cars. As electric cars become cheaper and infrastructures improve, it will become better for more and more people, but I see no tipping point.
For example, I won't get an electric car now, even a cheap one, simply because I don't have access to a charging point. In order for me to buy one. Someone has to get at least some power lines to my parking spot first. There are a lot of blocking points that have to be addressed one by one, they don't magically disappear because batteries become cheaper.
Even if batteries become cheaper, it won't make electric cars cheaper overnight. We are getting to the point where *with subsidies*, mid-range electric cars end up being cheaper than gas cars in the same bracket, which is a big deal. However it is not yet the case for small cars with good fuel economy, even in countries where gas is heavily taxed.
So, no tipping point. If there was a tipping point, we could remove all government incentives, and I think we shouldn't.
Re:Why a "tipping" point? (Score:4, Informative)
The tipping point effect happens when the costs-to-serve for, and inconvenience of, ICE cars and infrastructure start increasing substantially due to diseconomies of scale vs EVs heading in the other direction. Who knows when that point will be reached, but it will come.
Re: (Score:3)
We are getting to the point where *with subsidies*, mid-range electric cars end up being cheaper than gas cars in the same bracket, which is a big deal.
You mean when an electric car *with subsidies* being cheaper than a gas car *with subsidies*. Currently ICEV owners get to externalise a ton of costs and force others to pay. People always seem to forget that externalised costs are equivalent to subsidies.
Charger Issues (Score:4, Insightful)
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
You seem resentful of tax incentives. Are you not getting enough of them? Perhaps you should buy an EV before your share dries up.
Also, it's clear you need to be informed that studies such as this are what informs the government on what those "clever tax incentives" need to be to accomplish the objective, so you are literally being dismissive of the exact mechanism that will be used to address what you are complaining about. You're a clown.
Re: (Score:2)
Resentful of tax incentives? No, resentful of government deciding that it knows what I should do better than I do. Perhaps you should become an adult while that still has meaning. Or move to a wonderful command economy like Cuba.
Also, it's clear you need to be informed that if government wankers need this kind of study to tell them that consumers will buy items that are cheaper rather than more expensive, they are spectacularly unfit to decide how other people should behave. Just because your side is fu
Re: (Score:2)
Apples are not oranges, and small cars are cheaper than big cars. Orthodoxy for nerds, stuff th
Re:We'll.... see? (Score:4, Interesting)
I think when they talk about "tipping points" they are referring to new car sales. No one is seriously suggesting trashing the entire fleet of IC cars tomorrow.
Re:We'll.... see? (Score:5, Insightful)
More precisely, the "tipping point" is when sales are enough to pay to R&D and manufacturing. At that point it becomes profitable to extend the business and surrounding services. Before it is just the hope for future business that keeps it going.
Re:We'll.... see? (Score:5, Informative)
Re:We'll.... see? (Score:5, Insightful)
An electric F150 sounds like a pretty ideal farm truck. No need to drive into town to fill it up, or have your own tank and pay a tanker to fill it. Also for city construction. No need to carry around a generator to run your welder or other doodads.
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
>"There wasnâ(TM)t a point to owning an electric car in the Midwest until probably 3-5 years ago. Most of our power (70%) came from coal and gas at the time"
You are assuming the only reason to want an electric car is "carbon." In fact, that is probably the least important to those buying any vehicle. But these are other important factors:
1) Lower maintenance costs
2) Reliability
3) Performance
4) Convenience (charge at home)
5) Quietness
6) Lower "fuel" costs
Not everyone is interested in driving one a
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
"I think the harder adoption challenge would be exactly the problem I have and described..."
The solution to that problem is well understood and has been solved before, only then to get big polluters off the road. Regarding EVs, we are not near that point yet, but when we are we can offer trade-in incentives. Those are quite effective at addressing your "problem".
Re: (Score:2)
First, I don't buy new cars.
Then the EV transition of new cars does not apply to you. Yet.
Re: (Score:2)
It's not clear you buy any cars at all, so who cares what you have to say, but assuming you buy used cars, you do so without "enough information" on lifespan on those potential purchases either. Just an excuse.
Also, modern chemistries have lifespan characteristics that ARE well known, so this information exists every bit as much as any information you assume regarding ICE cars. Chemistries used in cars have degradation, but this levels out after a while. Range is significantly reduced but the car will ha
Re: (Score:2)
It's not clear you buy any cars at all, so who cares what you have to say, but assuming you buy used cars, you do so without "enough information" on lifespan on those potential purchases either. Just an excuse.
Also, modern chemistries have lifespan characteristics that ARE well known, so this information exists every bit as much as any information you assume regarding ICE cars. Chemistries used in cars have degradation, but this levels out after a while. Range is significantly reduced but the car will have significant life left and given that the resale value is appropriate, there is no reason not to consider used EVs...except for ignorance of course.
My most recent used car purchase was a 2011 forester 1.5 years ago for $7500. Very good used car. I considered hybrids and EV's but I had doubts about their value on the resale market. There are also no EV SUV's and few hybrid ones.
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
"But saying that "consumers voted with their wallets" when the government had to pay them to do so is kind of silly."
In what way? These concepts, ignoring your inflammatory characterization, are not mutually exclusive.
Tax incentives for EVs are consistently misrepresented, they are NOT "paying the buyer", they are to offset the initial cost disadvantages of producing new technology to be sold into a mature market. They are to enable new technologies that are of benefit to society. At least in the US, the
Re: (Score:3)
Supply and demand? Quantities of scale? Economics course?
On top of that the gas taxes that pay for your roads will have to increase since less are buying that gas. Some states have increased EV car registration fees to help, but when that is finally the place for road taxes most will be surprised how much tax is in that gas price.
Re: (Score:3)
I'm sure they will find some sympathetic senator to put forth the idea that those costs should be passed on to the people still using gasoline-powered vehicles.
I think a lot more costs should be put on gasoline users. For example if they had to pay a tax to pay for all the healthcare costs they currently incur in other, that would be a start, but it really should also include the economic loss caused by the health problems. Gas cars are cheap only because the owners force other people to shoulder a lot of