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Transportation Power

Can California's Power Grid Handle a 15x Increase in Electric Cars? (calmatters.org) 428

California state officials "claim that the 12.5 million electric vehicles expected on California's roads in 2035 will not strain the grid," writes the nonpartisan and nonprofit news organization Cal Matters.

"But their confidence that the state can avoid brownouts relies on a best-case — some say unrealistic — scenario: massive and rapid construction of offshore wind and solar farms, and drivers charging their cars in off-peak hours...." Powering the vehicles means the state must triple the amount of electricity produced and deploy new solar and wind energy at almost five times the pace of the past decade.... Adding even more pressure, the state's last nuclear power plant, Diablo Canyon, is slated to shut down in 2030.... To provide enough electricity, California must:

- Convince drivers to charge their cars during off-peak hours: With new discounted rates, utilities are urging residents to avoid charging their cars between 4 p.m. and 9 p.m. But many people don't have unrestricted access to chargers at their jobs or homes.

- Build solar and wind at an unprecedented pace: Shifting to all renewables requires at least 6 gigawatts of new resources a year for the next 25 years — a pace that's never been met before.

- Develop a giant new industry: State officials predict that offshore wind farms will provide enough power for about 1.5 million homes by 2030 and 25 million homes by 2045. But no such projects are in the works yet. Planning them, obtaining an array of permits and construction could take at least seven to eight years.

- Build 15 times more public chargers: About 1.2 million chargers will be needed for the 8 million electric cars expected in California by 2030. Currently, about 80,000 public chargers operate statewide, with another estimated 17,000 on the way, according to state data.

- Expand vehicle-to-grid technology: State officials hope electric cars will send energy back to the grid when electricity is in high demand, but the technology is new and has not been tested in electric cars.

Thanks to long-time Slashdot reader schwit1 for submitting the story.
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Can California's Power Grid Handle a 15x Increase in Electric Cars?

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  • No. (Score:5, Insightful)

    by DrMrLordX ( 559371 ) on Sunday January 22, 2023 @03:43AM (#63229354)

    Definitely not. PG&E can't even handle the grid now.

    • Re:No. (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Joce640k ( 829181 ) on Sunday January 22, 2023 @04:02AM (#63229384) Homepage

      So... changes need to be made?

      Imagine if we judged the gasoline car by the same yardstick 100 years ago: There wouldn't be enough gasoline production, there wouldn't be any filling stations, etc., etc.

      We'd all be better off sticking with horses, right? They work. They've been working for thousands of years!

      Guess what? Gas production went up, gas stations were built, it all worked out in the end.

      (except for the horse breeders)

      • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

        by Kokuyo ( 549451 )

        I think you felt your ideology attacked over nothing. That the grid needs major overhaul is a main point of EV sceptics since day one, not because they WANT to see EVs fail but because they want to make it clear where the blame needs to go when doodoo inevitably hits the fan.

        • Re:No. (Score:5, Insightful)

          by ShanghaiBill ( 739463 ) on Sunday January 22, 2023 @04:53AM (#63229458)

          That the grid needs major overhaul is a main point of EV sceptics since day one

          And since day one, they have been wrong. The existing grid can handle EVs. The future grid will handle them even better.

          Even if 100% of ICEs were replaced by EVs tomorrow, the grid could handle it. It is only a 20% additional load, and it is a flexible load that can be shifted to when other demand is lowest, such as in the middle of the night.

          • Re:No. (Score:4, Interesting)

            by tlhIngan ( 30335 ) <slashdot@worf.ERDOSnet minus math_god> on Sunday January 22, 2023 @03:57PM (#63230678)

            Even if 100% of ICEs were replaced by EVs tomorrow, the grid could handle it. It is only a 20% additional load, and it is a flexible load that can be shifted to when other demand is lowest, such as in the middle of the night.

            Actually, demand might be better suited, especially in a place like California where it's sunny a lot and has a lot of solar, to charge when the sun is out. I believe it's the case there is actually too much solar in California, so instead of wasting the energy, it should be stored, and why not store it in EV batteries? Either it'll get used in V2L (vehicle to load, i.e., power your house) or you'll drive it anyways.

            EVs represent a substantial amount of energy storage for the grid. It seems best to actually be able to use that energy storage when you have too much of it.

            It'll require a bit of a grid re-think because EVs are really that kind of load where they can charge anytime and as long as it gets you where you need to go, you might be able to devise ways to optimize the energy use of the grid.

            For example, let's say out of the entire EV fleet now, most people can anticipate using 50 miles tops a day. Which means if you have a 350 mile range on your EV, you should, on average, get 100 miles of charge every week. What if instead of fully charging every night and using it a bit then charging, we make it true that you will get, on average, 50 miles per day of charge, more if you're running below 50% charge?

            Thus, when you plug in, your car charges "economically" - when electricity is cheap and plentiful, it charges. When it isn't, it stops. Add in a little bit of logic that says if it gets dangerously low, like under 30% charge, it will charge to say, 40% always regardless of price. Of course, if you are planning a road trip, and you need it fully charged, it will do so - either optimally if you give it enough notice so it can use cheap power, or just take what it can.

            Thus you can take advantage of the time there is excess electricity available on the grid and charge when it's super cheap or free, and stop charging when it's more expensive. And it can be mostly automatic as well.

            After all, EV chargers in Europe right now can do "free charging" by monitoring how much your solar panels are putting out, and telling the car to only draw that much power so instead of putting it on the grid (where you're paid very little) you make use of the stored power economically, thus saving even more money.

            It's why EVs are "dangerous" - the demand for the "fuel" can range from a lot to nothing. And instead of relying on places that have a limited resource, a lot of places have access to the sun which means they make "make their own gas" and "fuel up for free". Imagine how disruptive that is - instead of paying for gas and the whole economy around it, suddenly you're paying a hefty one time fee to have solar panels installed and then ... you can travel around because the energy you use came from what you made on-site. You've suddenly decoupled the need for transportation from the vast oil-based infrastructure created in the past century to service it.

        • Re:No. (Score:5, Insightful)

          by mobby_6kl ( 668092 ) on Sunday January 22, 2023 @06:01AM (#63229560)

          The grid won't be just overhauled in advance. China would do it, because they're able to coherently plan things, but nobody's going to invest any money to upgrade the grid before it's needed in our weird hybrid economies.

          Once there's demand, it'll just happen.

      • We'd all be better off sticking with horses, right? They work. They've been working for thousands of years!

        Drought conditions will make it hard to grow food for those horses.

        [ Every solution has its own set of problems... ]

    • We don't need it to. Just get solar.

      • Up vote or comment. Decisions, decisions.

        Hopefully, folks are smart enough to figure this out. Would be a shame if they had to pass a law to REQUIRE solar charging for cars.

        One issue is the fact that you can't take the panels with you on a long trip or night trips, forcing you to rely on infrastructure.

        I wouldn't mind if they would incorporate the panels in the cars skin though.

        Baby steps I guess.

        • I wouldn't mind if they would incorporate the panels in the cars skin though.

          The cost/benefit doesn't add up on that one. Solar panels on your roof and and in car parks though? Great idea.

          You can even use your car to power your house during peak hours.

        • by DavenH ( 1065780 )

          Hopefully, folks are smart enough to figure this out.

          The smart ones know it's not economically competitive with better alternatives. Solar panels on cars? What good would that do, do you think? You need some perspective...Per day, you're getting maybe 2 kilometers of range with 2 square metres of panels (way more than the exposed skin of a car). Some dudes on youtube were talking about how they wanted solar power option to fold out on the back of their cybertruck. I did the math, which you should do; it would take about 140 days to charge the truck with full

    • Definitely not. PG&E can't even handle the grid now.

      The best path for California is to at least build more transmission lines to bring power from Arizona. When the SMRs start coming out of the factories, it is we who will install them first while California continues to dither.

    • PG&E isn't going to miss more inspections and maintenance because they're charging EVs. In fact, the extra demand over the night should improve their margins and give them more resources to properly maintain the lines.

  • Also, grid infrastructure to distribute it. Which will likely cost more than the generating capacity, and be far more disruptive, as streets get torn up by the mile (in cities that can't patch potholes now).

    • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

      by drinkypoo ( 153816 )

      We don't need much more generation capacity for this, because most of the charging will occur at night for the foreseeable future. We don't need any grid improvements for that either. We do need grid improvements in general, but we need them whether we get EVs or not because PG&E has been neglecting their contractually obligated maintenance for over one hundred years. Remember how they burned down Paradise by not replacing a hook for 99 years, and it wore through and a line fell down? Now consider that

      • by dfghjk ( 711126 )

        I enjoy the combination of arguments here, in particular (1) the government's inability to solve any problems as evidenced by an inadequate electric grid, and (2) that any problem not solved by the free market is doomed to failure, not recognizing that the failure to regulate the "free market" is literally the cause of the electric grid problems. It's the classic "two Santas".

    • Also, grid infrastructure to distribute it.

      If we do it right the cars could help by using their batteries for load-balancing of the grid.

      It will help massively during peaks in demand.

      I know that's a very big "if" though.

  • by Bruce66423 ( 1678196 ) on Sunday January 22, 2023 @03:58AM (#63229374)

    In practice Europe is doing amazingly well in getting wind power erected, especially in the North Sea. It's currently deploying 17GW a year and is expecting this to rise to 23GW a year. https://windeurope.org/intelli... [windeurope.org]

    In that context California's need for 6GW a year seems achievable. However the issue of distribution networks may be more tricky, given the messed up nature of the present incumbent!

    • keep in mind the state had a 24 billion yes Billion with a B deficit last year. You say its achievable but they don't seem to have the $ to achieve it
      • What has the size of the deficit in the state budget got to do with the private sector investing money to get wind farms and solar panels built?

      • It's a $3.6 Trillion (with a T) economy. They not only have the money, they have it in abundance. And they especially have it for investments that quickly pay for themselves in money that isn't stolen from them by the Texas fossil fuel mafia. The question is simply one of political will and institutional inertia.
    • by DavenH ( 1065780 ) on Sunday January 22, 2023 @09:04AM (#63229770)
      Rapid growth in renewables does not imply a reduction in fossil fuels. Batteries at utility scale are $400 / kw installed. You're looking at 160 BILLION in batteries if you want to go full solar in California (the solar would cost about 30 billion). And the batteries have to be replaced every 10 years or so. You could take that same 210 billion and build 40+ nuclear plants, that last 40 years! Which have comparable lifecycle emissions as solar.
      • by rbrander ( 73222 ) on Sunday January 22, 2023 @04:52PM (#63230804) Homepage

        Form Energy has an issue with your $400/kWh figure. They are breaking ground on a battery factor set to sell product in 2024, and their *intention*, if not yet their claim, is that they can produce long-term storage farms at $20/kWh.
        https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/2... [cnbc.com]

        The article, by the way, uses $100-$200/kWh for the existing battery estimate. Most would call your $400 a conservative figure.

        If Form can even get down to double their target, down to $40/kWh, then your $210B becomes just $21B, which, some would argue, is the price of a single GW-scale nuke plant, these days, what with 2.3GW costing Georgia over $30B.

        I've been a nuke champ for 40 years, but...money is money.

  • Case in point: 100 y old bare wires fatigued their way through mounting hardware because PG&E was too cheap and negligent to maintain their gear. Billions of dollars and thousands of lives uprooted later, CAL-ISO (the Enron rolling blackouts colluders) want to hate on the tiny demand EVs would generate compared to the savings in carbon and excess deaths from using the sky as a "limitless" dump. Neither of them did their job then, so don't expect them to do anything right now.

  • The ICE lobby is starting too soon...
  • Just get solar. 100% off-grid energy is the way to go if you have a single family home. I believe it's current california law that all new houses must have solar.

    • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

      by DavenH ( 1065780 )
      "Just". Maybe it's less in California, but in Fredericton you're going to need about 100 square metres of solar panels to supply a house and electric car. About 50 Kwh of batteries, to tolerate a 3-day cloudy stretch. I modelled this with real solaricity data, incorporating panel efficiency degradation, backup generator for the worst 1% of situations etc etc. These batteries don't last all that long, 5-8 years, so it's not really decoupling yourself from anything, you can't fix the stuff yourself, and need
    • by dfghjk ( 711126 )

      "...if you have a single family home."

      what about the other third of the population? Are home owners the only ones who matter?

  • Being "nonpartisan" is not as simple as simply labeling yourself as such.
  • Electricity generation on the scale required is going to take a lot land and basically heavy industry. California will absolutely not do it. What they will do is pay large sums for electricity generated out of state.
  • by rkinch ( 608630 ) <kinch@truetex.com> on Sunday January 22, 2023 @09:42AM (#63229824) Homepage
    "We know to the gallon how much gasoline is burned in Southern California - it's taxed. We know the efficiency of an IC engine. We know the efficiency of an electric motor. We know battery charging, storage, and use efficiencies. We know how many kW-hr replace that gasoline. We know what demand brings the grid down on hot summer days. Run the numbers, then apologize." -- Uncle Al Schwartz, sci.physics, 15 Sep 2008
  • My back of envelope calculation California uses about 300,000 GWh (3 * 10^5 * 10^9) of electricity per year. This number has been dropping for a while. It was about 300,000 in 2012, 277,000 in 2021 (almost 10% less now). A Tesla 3 uses about 0.25 (1/4) of a KWh per mile (80 KWh battery - 300 mile range) 12 million cars driven 10,000 miles/year therefore use: (12 * 10^6 cars) * (10^4 miles/year) * (1/4 KWh/miles) = 3 * 10^10 KWh Now 300,000 GWh is 3 * 10^5 * 10^9 watts * 10^-3 KWh/watt) = 3 * 11 KWh So th
  • by mrflash818 ( 226638 ) on Sunday January 22, 2023 @01:06PM (#63230198) Homepage Journal

    It will be interesting to see how things evolve.

    According to this article one out of every ten new cars is already an EV:

    Electric-vehicle sales crossed a global milestone last year, achieving around 10% market share for the first time [wsj.com]

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