Why Are California's EV Sales Dropping? (msn.com) 315
"After years of rapid expansion, California's booming EV market may be showing signs of fatigue," reports the Los Angeles Times, "as high vehicle prices, unreliable charging networks and other consumer headaches appear to dampen enthusiasm for zero-emission vehicles.
"For the first time in more than a decade, electric vehicle sales dropped significantly in the last half of 2023..." Sales of all-electric cars and light trucks in California had started off strong in 2023, rising 48% in the first half of the year compared with a year earlier. By that time, California EV sales numbered roughly 190,807 — or slightly more than a quarter of all EV sales in the nation, according to the California New Car Dealers Assn. But it's what happened in the second half of last year though that's generating jitters. Sales in the third quarter fell by 2,840 from the previous period — the first quarterly drop for EVs in California since the Tesla Model S was introduced in 2012. And the fourth quarter was even worse: Sales dropped 10.2%, from 100,151 to 89,933...
Propelled by the sales success of Tesla, and boosted by electric vehicles from other automakers entering the market, consumer acceptance of EVs had seemed like a given until recently. In fact, robust sales growth is a key assumption in the state's zero-emission vehicle plan... Under the no-gas mandate, zero-emission vehicles must account for 35% of all new vehicle sales by model year 2026.... Nationally, EV sales growth also has slowed as automakers such as Ford and General Motors cut back — at least temporarily — on EV and battery production plans. Hertz, the rental car giant, is also pulling back on plans to shift heavily toward EVs. Hertz several years ago announced plans to buy 100,000 Teslas but is now selling off its EV fleet.
Corey Cantor, EV analyst at Bloomberg BNEF, an energy research firm, said that although recent sales figures are worrisome, there's plenty of momentum behind the EV transition, as evidenced by government mandates around the globe and massive investments by motor vehicle manufacturers and their suppliers. Those investments total $616 billion globally over five years, according to consulting firm AlixPartners.
But EVs haven't reached "price parity" with gas-powered engines, the article points out, so just 7.6% of the vehicles sold last year in the U.S. were electric — while in California, the market share for EVS was 20.1%.
The article also quantifies concerns about reliability of California's public charging system, which "according to studies from academic researchers and market analysts, can be counted on to malfunction at least 20% of the time." After $1 billion in state money for charger companies, the state's Energy Commission will now also start collecting reliability statistics, according to the article. But the article also cites wait times at the chargers. "Even if they were reliable, there aren't enough chargers to go around. EV sales have outpaced public charger installation."
Some good news? The federal government is spending $5 billion nationally to put fast chargers on major highways at 50-mile intervals. California will receive $384 million. Seven major automakers have also teamed up to build a North American charging network of their own, called Ionna. The joint venture plans to install at least 30,000 chargers — which would be open to any EV brand — at stations that will provide restrooms, food service and retail stores on site or nearby.
"For the first time in more than a decade, electric vehicle sales dropped significantly in the last half of 2023..." Sales of all-electric cars and light trucks in California had started off strong in 2023, rising 48% in the first half of the year compared with a year earlier. By that time, California EV sales numbered roughly 190,807 — or slightly more than a quarter of all EV sales in the nation, according to the California New Car Dealers Assn. But it's what happened in the second half of last year though that's generating jitters. Sales in the third quarter fell by 2,840 from the previous period — the first quarterly drop for EVs in California since the Tesla Model S was introduced in 2012. And the fourth quarter was even worse: Sales dropped 10.2%, from 100,151 to 89,933...
Propelled by the sales success of Tesla, and boosted by electric vehicles from other automakers entering the market, consumer acceptance of EVs had seemed like a given until recently. In fact, robust sales growth is a key assumption in the state's zero-emission vehicle plan... Under the no-gas mandate, zero-emission vehicles must account for 35% of all new vehicle sales by model year 2026.... Nationally, EV sales growth also has slowed as automakers such as Ford and General Motors cut back — at least temporarily — on EV and battery production plans. Hertz, the rental car giant, is also pulling back on plans to shift heavily toward EVs. Hertz several years ago announced plans to buy 100,000 Teslas but is now selling off its EV fleet.
Corey Cantor, EV analyst at Bloomberg BNEF, an energy research firm, said that although recent sales figures are worrisome, there's plenty of momentum behind the EV transition, as evidenced by government mandates around the globe and massive investments by motor vehicle manufacturers and their suppliers. Those investments total $616 billion globally over five years, according to consulting firm AlixPartners.
But EVs haven't reached "price parity" with gas-powered engines, the article points out, so just 7.6% of the vehicles sold last year in the U.S. were electric — while in California, the market share for EVS was 20.1%.
The article also quantifies concerns about reliability of California's public charging system, which "according to studies from academic researchers and market analysts, can be counted on to malfunction at least 20% of the time." After $1 billion in state money for charger companies, the state's Energy Commission will now also start collecting reliability statistics, according to the article. But the article also cites wait times at the chargers. "Even if they were reliable, there aren't enough chargers to go around. EV sales have outpaced public charger installation."
Some good news? The federal government is spending $5 billion nationally to put fast chargers on major highways at 50-mile intervals. California will receive $384 million. Seven major automakers have also teamed up to build a North American charging network of their own, called Ionna. The joint venture plans to install at least 30,000 chargers — which would be open to any EV brand — at stations that will provide restrooms, food service and retail stores on site or nearby.
Obviously (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Obviously (Score:5, Interesting)
I've been reading about big tech layoffs in the US recently. Could it be that people are either out of work, or not wanting to spend money in case they are discarded by their employer?
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You've been reading about big tech layoffs because layoffs make headlines. The reality is that the job market is increasing in strength, not decreasing. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/0... [cnbc.com]
Re:Obviously (Score:5, Insightful)
The market is saturated. The people that wanted them have them, and the people that don't -- well, don't.
That is just an absurd notion. The market consists of millions of working cars that aren't being replaced for either gasoline or EVs, and only when they break does that choice get made. That choice depends on many factors such as easy of charging, perception of the technology, and cost.
The market is far from saturated for EVs. The reality is that the majority of people are not currently on the market for a new car, ... period, and those which are are impacted by one of the 3 above points (and probably others I didn't list).
THIS ! (Score:2)
THIS !
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>"That is just an absurd notion. The market consists of millions of working cars that aren't being replaced for either gasoline or EVs, and only when they break does that choice get made."
That *is* the current market- it is becoming saturated based on current demand. You are describing the *future* market. The article says sales are dropping, not stopped. There will continue to be demand for a long time.
There are also millions of people who have ICE cars, like I do, who can have a reasonable place to
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And again that market is defined by many factors. Not wanting an EV is just one of those factors. If I want an EV but today can't because I don't have a charging point in my street, but tomorrow I do because suddenly there is a charging point, that doesn't mean the market is saturated by any normal definition of market saturation. If I want an EV but don't have the extra $10k that doesn't mean the market is saturated. That means the right EV isn't available to me.
Not in the market by choice (Score:5, Insightful)
I sank something like $12k in my current car to avoid being on the market.
Produce a product I want and maybe you can sell me on it. The current crop are not it.
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The market is saturated. The people that wanted them have them, and the people that don't -- well, don't.
People have also learned that technology moves quickly both in price and features now while some people want the latest gadget most are willing to wait until the price is right and the features suit their needs
e.g. 1 Currently several EV's will suit my wife's needs but the cost to pay back She could run her petroleum fuel car for the next 20 years plus and somewhere in that time the cost of the EV will come down or her car will die and the choice will be made at that time.
e.g 2 No current EV suits my ne
Re: Obviously (Score:4, Insightful)
Importantly, though, the current market is shaped by charging infrastructure.
They need to fix the apartment problem. Those most likely to benefit from EVs (city dwellers driving short distances) are also the most likely to live in a place they can't charge their EV.
Fix that and ICE vehicles will go away on their own.
Re: Obviously (Score:5, Insightful)
Importantly, though, the current market is shaped by charging infrastructure.
Not entirely. The situation is incredibly complex. Different parts of the market have different priorities. Charging infrastructure? America is built on suburbs, if this alone were the defining characteristic then everyone would be driving EVs. The reality is you need charging infrastructure, you need cheap cars or cars with compelling features, you need to address misconceptions and silly ideas (range anxiety is still a thing because people are still clueless about how they actually use their own cars). Then there's the general economy, why would you buy a new car in times of uncertainty.
The problem is multi-faceted.
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Why do the "promotors" keep deciding "people are clueless about how they use their own cars" and mocking "range anxiety".
Because they are. It's a misplaced anxiety that has zero to do with the actual existing behaviours of car owners. Is an EV for everyone? No. Never said it was. The reality though is from a point of view of range anxiety the EV in its form several years ago was already perfectly good for the overwhelming majority of car owners.
In my case, it was 5 20-hour days VS 3 13-hour days.
You are not normal. That's why you got modded down. You are the tiny tiny portion of people for whom an EV may not be suitable (we'll ignore you doing a dangerous cannonball run puttin
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Here is a different theory: The "woke" Californians that used to buy EVs, either to be good to the environment, or to be seen doing good to the environment, have been thourougly pissed of by Elon Musk. And are holding out until someone else comes and sells these cars to them, someone who doesn't try to be the winner in the competition "who is the worlds biggest
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The market is saturated *at the currently available price points*. A more basic, much less expensive model would boost sales. Many people realize they can do fine with much shorter range and don't have range anxiety, but they can't afford what's out there.
Re:Obviously (Score:5, Informative)
Yes. While it is completely obvious to us now, the first gas cars sucked. They were expensive, you were in danger of breaking your wrist every time you wanted to start the engine.
That's why for a short time they also made cars with steam engines (using gasoline as fuel) for people with lots of money and others just stuck with their horses. After a while, once the gas cars improved and became cheaper, more people bought them.
Same with EVs - some people are early adopters - they want new technology, they were the first ones to buy EVs. Some people drive a lot and like that EVs are cheaper to operate, so when they were looking for a new car, they bought an EV. Others buy used cars that are cheap or buy a new car and use it for 15 years. Those two groups won't be running to buy EVs.
I do not live in California, but I plan on using my horse (that is, an old gas powered car with no computers) as long as possible. I do not like modern cars, whatever their power source is and if forced, I'd probably convert my car to an EV rather than buy an EV that needs apps,internet connection and updates to function.
Very misleading article: (Score:5, Informative)
Very bad interpretation of data in this article. EV sales "fell" only because the analysis compared quarters 3 and 4 of last year to quarter 2 of last year.
But 2023 Q3 and Q4 weren't unusually low. What happened was that quarter 2 was unusually high-- it set a record for the largest quarterly increase in EV sales.
So, the data shows that there was one unusually high-sales quarter, but turned out that this high-sales rate was only for that quarter, and wasn't sustained.
https://insideevs.com/news/680... [insideevs.com]
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A Guardian article came to the same conclusion but included several important caveats at the end.
For example, EVs are much newer than the rest of the public passenger fleet, they burn several times hotter, require a staggering amount of water to extinguish and, most worrying, have a propensity to reignite hours or even days later.
These are not small caveats & will become a very big deal as EVs replace ICEs
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Everyone could see that the gasoline engine would eventually extend the distance you could travel easily and therefore expand your freedom. Not so with an EV. People tend to like things that make them more free and dislike things that tether them to home.
Not only that, but you can't asphyxiate yourself with an EV like you can with a gasoline powered vehicle in a closed garage.
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do you believe people should have the right to kill themselves?
Yes. If they feel the time has come why not? It's their body. This is no different than the countries which allow people to take their own lives when their medical condition is such that they've had enough. Who are you to tell someone they can't do what they want with their own body?
Re:Obviously (Score:4, Interesting)
Why would this not be so? In ICE vehicles, the range extended by making more efficient engines. Are you saying there is no possibility of more efficient batteries? Or more efficient electric engines? OR more efficient charging? That seems silly based on the changes we have seen in the recent past.The biggest issue facing electric vehicles are charging stations, which is starting to increase now, especially with government pushing for more stations.
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You must be wearing a welding mask if you can't see hat EVs are going to displace ICE vehicles just like cars replaced horses and diesel replaced steam.
I am an electric car welder by trade and I weld with electric arc you insensitive clod!
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In droves? It cant be that bad if the cost of a house is right around $850k https://www.bankrate.com/real-... [bankrate.com]. .
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Always the same illusions (Score:2)
Is it? (Score:2, Informative)
Seems like just another piece of FUD to reduce the much needed transition to EVs. Worldwide EV sales are increasing massively - luckily - we need this fresh air! https://electrek.co/2023/11/14... [electrek.co]
Re:Is it? (Score:5, Insightful)
Well, TFS gives the numbers behind the claim - Q3 2023 down on Q2, and Q4 down even further, by 10.2%. The overall 2023 numbers don't invalidate the quarterly trend. However with the surge in consumer debt, credit card delinquencies etc through 2023, it seems more likely to me that people are not buying EVs for financial reasons, rather than any change in sentiment about EVs. The jury's still out over hard landing/soft landing etc, but there's no doubt that consumers have been under increasing financial constraints in the last year, and that seems likely to have an effect on their purchasing choices.
Re:Is it? (Score:5, Interesting)
Well, TFS gives the numbers behind the claim - Q3 2023 down on Q2, and Q4 down even further, by 10.2%.
Yes, but that was because Q2 was unusually high EV sales, not because Q3 or Q4 were unusually low.
In fact Q3 and Q4 in California last year were respectively the second-highest quarterly EV sales in history, and the sixth-highest in history.
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Anybody who looks at that and seems doom and gloom for EV's is grasping.
How Los Angeles is building new EV chargers fast (Score:2)
Turning streetlights into charging stations. [invidious.private.coffee]
Pure FUD. (Score:5, Informative)
Year-on-year is just fine, but if they do quarterly, they can spin it this way. But if it were the other way around, they would have picked the other frame in order to have the same clickbait framing.
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Re: Pure FUD. (Score:4, Informative)
Here's the sales drop quote I was referring to:
And the fourth quarter was even worse: Sales dropped 10.2%, from 100,151 to 89,933...
Sales dropped, not 'grew at a lower rate, but dropped...
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One quarter does not make a trend.
The data discussed was two quarters, but nevertheless the point has some validity. Sales rose in the first two quarters of the year more than they fell in the second two, by a factor of three.
If, as an earlier comment mentioned, we compare each quarter with the same quarter the previous year (which is the way economics statistics are usually done), sales continued to rise, rather than fall.
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It doesn't compare to gas powered cars though. Did they sell fewer gas powered cars too?
I know a lot of people who have been putting off buying a car in hopes that interest rates would drop. I'm actually in that camp. The fed has been very slow to drop rates and it's likely not going back down to where it was a few years ago. However, cars have doubled in price and interest rates added to that make them a non-starter for many people. My car is 10 years old at this point. I want a new one. I'm not even
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I look forward to finding out 1Q 2024 sales vs 1Q 2023 in a couple of months. I guess we'll see who is right then.
Keep in mind that year-over-year numbers in 2023, especially in 2Q and 3Q, were massively distorted upwards because of the shortages of electronic components in 2022 that killed the supply of vehicles that year. In those two quarters, all new vehicle sales in CA were up 16% and 20% over 2022 respectively. Also, BEV sales as a fraction of all new car sales were lower in 4Q 2023 than in 2Q and
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If there is something to it, my interpretation would be the growth of the second-hand market. It would make sense if there were a period of adjustment where used EVs are dampening new EV sales, but that would logically be temporary.
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If I give you $100 one week and then $90 the next week, have you "lost" $10? Of course not. You made $190.
See the moving goalpost?
I do. In fact, I have never seen a goalpost move so quickly! Your original post was loudly declaring the article click bait trash because, in your own words, "all they're talking about is slower than expected sales growth". But when presented with facts from the article that were completely counter to your claim, you start talking about absolutes like it proves your point.
So, yeah, I do see the moving goalpost. And who's moving it...
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wrong comparison [Re: Pure FUD.] (Score:2)
You are comparing a figure for California EV sales (the article we're discussing) with a figure for U.S. EV sales (your link).
Sales in California fell (*) in 2023Q4. Sales in the US rose in 2023Q4. No contradiction.
Footnote: "fell" only if you express sales by quarter. Year-over-year quarterly sales rose. In fact, they fell because the 2023Q2 sales had risen by the largest increase in history.
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Price and chargers (Score:2)
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Less useful than what? Does having to put fuel in an ICE-powered vehicle make it less useful?
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So the slow recharge (vs refuel) rate is what makes it less useful, not the fact that you need to recharge/refuel it. Especially coupled with unreliable pubic charging infrastructure. (And before anyone says to just charge in a garage at home, not everyone has a garage.)
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No car maker is going to make a loss on a vehicle if they can help it. China has most of the battery market and the batteries are sold to their own car makers much cheaper than they sell them to the rest of the world and the battery can be a 1/4 the cost of the car.
Really? (Score:2)
"Just compare the price of a Model 3 or Y (or a BYD, or Volvo,...) against it's ICE rivals"
And what are the rivals? Here in the UK you can get a VW Golf from £25K. Good luck getting any new Tesla at that price.
Re: Really? (Score:2)
As you know most new passenger cars in the UK are sold with a finance deal rather than cash upfront. People committing to such a big purchase should be comparing the monthly price + cost of the fuel/electricity over 24 or 36 months before reaching any conclusions about the best and worst rivals for that VW Golf.
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Price of electricity (Score:4, Insightful)
Re: Price of electricity (Score:5, Insightful)
I assure you, gasoline is much more expensive here than electricity.
Re: Price of electricity (Score:5, Informative)
At 32 cents per kWh it costs under $20 to charge a 60 kWh EV. That cost goes down further if a residence has solar or charges during off peak hours.
I remember filling my car for $20 back when I was a teenager. I don't think gas is that cheap even in Alaska. Maybe it's still that cheap in Saudi Arabi.
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In my part of California (Santa Cruz) gas is $4.62/gal on average. A 14 gallon tank will cost almost $65 to fill.
PG&E base plan rate is $0.13677/kWH with a $0.19939/kWH delivery rate and $0.01412/kWH surcharge for a total $0.35028. I actually pay a worse rate because I have solar. PG&E charges me $0.37353 kWh. Which is why I would lean on my solar instead of buying power and how I save money on my utility bills.
For comparison on Long Island (Nassau county used in this example) you pay a power supply
Why are sales of EVs dropping? Easy,.,, (Score:2, Informative)
All the early-adopters that could afford EVs have them, and the prices of EVs haven't dropped to attract more buyers.
Also, there's this:
After $1 billion in state money for charger companies, the state's Energy Commission will now also start collecting reliability statistics, according to the article. But the article also cites wait times at the chargers. "Even if they were reliable, there aren't enough chargers to go around. EV sales have outpaced public charger installation."
Some good news? The federal government is spending $5 billion nationally to put fast chargers on major highways at 50-mile intervals. California will receive $384 million.
California spent $1BN on public chargers just in CA and they don't work (not reliable, not ubiquitous), and now the federal government wants to invest just $5BN to address the need nation-wide, with another $384M going to California alone!
The recharging tech isn't reliable (yet), it's too expensive, and it's too scarce. But aside from that, it's working out just great! LOL
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Why is the US so dysfunctional when it comes to EVs?
In Europe we have ones that are price competitive with fossil cars, and that's the up-front cost. Obviously you save a massive amount if you can charge at home, compared to buying fossil fuels.
We have also sorted out charging infrastructure. It's not perfect but in many, if not most European countries, you can just get in your EV and go without worrying about finding a working charger.
Europe has extreme weather and terrain, long distances etc.
What is diffe
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What parts of Europe are we talking about?
Because at least here in Germany the charging infrastructure isn't that great and from clicking around a few manufacturers' websites in the past month (and just now to re-check Skoda and Hyundai), the cheapest electric models seem to be more than twice as expensive as the cheapest gas-powered models.
For Skoda and Hyundai it's like 20k and 15k for gas vs 45k and 35k for electric.
(Granted, probably a bit of an apples-to-oranges comparison given the differen
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Keep in mind that most European manufacturers have silly list prices and massive discounts.
For example, you can get a Peugeot or Renault for around half list price, brand new. 40k car for about 20k. Nissan do it too, a 32k Leaf 40 is available for around 20k new in the UK.
MG in the UK also offer EVs with price parity to fossil cars of similar spec. I don't know if they sell them in Germany.
It gets even more ridiculous when you look at lease and finance options.
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Europe has extreme weather and terrain, long distances etc.
Eruope does not have long distances compared to the U.S. It take over 12 hours to drive the length of California. In that same time you can cross multiple countries in Europe. It takes over 14 hours to drive across Texas (east to west). It can take 7 hours to drive across Kansas. It can take close to 10 hours to drive across Montana. These are just states, not other countries (though it can seem like it).
There's a reason for the joke about bein
Re:Why are sales of EVs dropping? Easy,.,, (Score:5, Insightful)
It takes over 15 hours to drive the length of the UK alone: https://maps.app.goo.gl/5iNdUk... [app.goo.gl]
Another example from a couple of years ago was a guy who drove from the UK down to Italy to see family. They were not in a massive hurry, but it still took two days, mostly on motorways with a speed limit of 120kph/75mph. No issue in his fairly affordable Kia e-Niro, which has relatively slow charging by today's standards.
Americans often seem to vastly under-estimate the size of Europe.
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Americans often seem to vastly under-estimate the size of Europe.
Indeed -- Europe is 3% larger than the USA, and 2% larger than Canada.
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The recharging tech isn't reliable (yet), it's too expensive, and it's too scarce.
Recharging tech is perfectly reliable. You just need to get companies to maintain the things that they put in rather than taking the government grant and running.
When your problem is uniquely American (which this one is), then it's not the problem of the technology.
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My neighborhood gas station doesn't have people constantly doing maintenance work on their pumps. That's my standard for high reliability. What part of "requires very frequent maintenance" means "perfectly reliable" to you?
Re:Why are sales of EVs dropping? Easy,.,, (Score:4, Insightful)
My neighborhood gas station doesn't have people constantly doing maintenance work on their pumps.
Your neighbourhood gas station definitely has maintenance on an at least annual basis (legal requirement). That is more than EV chargers need, and far less than American EV chargers are getting.
EV chargers do not require "frequent" maintenance, but they do require to not be left to be outright ignored, and do require repair if something gets broken on them - both things that are not being managed correctly.
By all means go take axe to your local neighbourhood gas station's petrol pump and your local EV charger. I'll bet you a Marsbar that the petrol pump gets repaired within weeks and the EV charger is left out of service for a year. That is the state of the US EV charging market, and it is unique in the world. Other countries don't have a problem with "unreliable" chargers.
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You're being as disingenuous as fuck here. You're comparing legally mandated annual maintenance with things that break down regularly.
No. I'm comparing maintenance. The fact that one is legally mandated isn't a problem for my analysis, it's the damn solution.
Instead you should compare their rates of breakdown and corrective ot required preventive maintenance. I bet you'll find that EV chargers require way more maintenance than gasoline pumps need.
Why would you bet that? No seriously back up your claim with a bit of a thought experiment. Compare the parts used in both. Reliability engineering is my day job and there is one pretty damn universal constant: non-moving parts are more reliable than moving parts. EV chargers are by all accounts far more reliable than any petrol bowser. They don't have pumps, PD meters, don't have pre
Re: Why are sales of EVs dropping? Easy,.,, (Score:2)
Retrofit (Score:2)
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There are several options:
https://www.treehugger.com/converting-your-car-to-an-electric-vehicle-4858603 [treehugger.com]
https://www.motortrend.com/reviews/futureproof-classic-car-to-ev-electric-car-conversions/ [motortrend.com]
https://evsroad.com/features/electric-car-conversion-kits/ [evsroad.com]
Here's the search I used: https://duckduckgo.com/?q=converting+a+car+to+ev&t=newext&atb=v264-1&ia=web [duckduckgo.com]
Re: Retrofit (Score:2)
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Yeah, the typical EV still costs about 25% more compared to it's similar EV counterpart in most cases if you can't get any tax credits in your area for buying one. It can still be difficult to find places to charge them in rural areas, too.
These things will be fixed in time, but I doubt that it will happen before the California government mandated sales ban of new gas vehicles in 2035. That was wishful thinking on their part.
Duh. Carpool lanes. (Score:2)
Up until a few years ago, you could get carpool stickers, and they'd give you carpool lane access for three years. Unfortunately, the federal law that allowed them to do that had a sunset date in 2025, so the stickers now are valid for only 18 months.
Also, Caltrans has been systematically removing carpool lanes and replacing them with express lanes that cost money even for people with carpool stickers (albeit less with the stickers).
Between those two changes, there's really no reason to buy a new EV right
We all work from home now. (Score:3, Interesting)
Of course vehicle sales are down.
1.) Already Bought Cars, 2.) Elon Musk is an Jerk (Score:2)
As for the 2nd, with one of the largest EV makers being ran by a racist, hateful, flame-thrower-loving, narcissist jerk that almost no one likes--why buy anything from him?
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"...with one of the largest EV makers being ran by a racist, hateful, flame-thrower-loving, narcissist jerk that almost no one likes--why buy anything from him?"
Ordinarily, that wouldn't possibly matter but in this case it very well could.
I'd say that potential EV buyers may well be taking a wait-and-see approach wherever they can afford to wait. Tesla's competition is not what it will be soon and anyone interested in an EV is likely to understand that.
"...most of the people who were going to buy them alrea
fast chargers on major highways (Score:2)
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The average American has a 30 minute commute. That means they're likely getting on a freeway. That means they'll likely be going past a charger.
People of the 2040s (since we'll still be selling gas cars until at least 2035, but probably longer) without opportunity to charge at home are going to have to stop at a charger. But by then the newest vehicles will probably have enough range and charging speed that they only need to stop for ten minutes or less.
We're going to need a lot more street charging. But we
Government incentivizing wrong things (Score:2)
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"Think how much more effective the government incentive would be if it was per KWh delivered..."
You mean like profit from operation of the chargers? You think the government should also pay a "negative gas tax" on sales?
"Inoperable charger does not dispense any energy, so does not earn any incentives. "
Or operating profit. If profit alone is not enough, why would incentives help? Could it because there aren't enough customers?
"I've been driving EV's for over a decade, but recently bought some ICE cars ag
Someone is paying a lot of money (Score:5, Insightful)
Someone is paying a lot of money to pump these "EV sales are crashing; EVs are FAIL" stories throughout multiple media channels the last six weeks. Reality is that EV sales growth is flattening out a bit from astronomical to just high, and absolute EV sales continue to climb. But when e.g. Norway has had 40%+ EV marketshare for new car sales for 5 years sales increases are eventually going to flatten out. Same thing will take longer in the US but is happening to a certain extent in Southern California, which is a large part of the overall vehicle market in the US.
Why? (Score:3)
Top tip for journalists: If you're going to ask your readers a rhetorical question, you better have answers for them, or at least know what you're writing about. Your job is to leave readers well-informed & with a reasonable understanding after they've read your piece. They're not going to remember a list of mostly unrelated stats that you found on Google. Or maybe you just don't care as long as the clicks & the pay checks keep coming in?
A wild guess (Score:5, Interesting)
Because America, in its infinite wisdom, did not mandate a single charging standard for electric vehicles and now the entire industry has been fucked by the swing from CCS1 (an actual standard) to NACS (a draft standard). Consumers were pawns in all this and now some of them are finding out the hard way. I'm sure that alone has had an extremely adverse effect on sales.
On top of that, there is an obvious campaign of misinformation against electric vehicles in general, probably by the oil/gas industry and car manufacturers. Car makers are already trying to lobby the federal administration to slow down EV adoption because they are so incompetent they cannot make electric cars that actually work well and sell competitively compared to their rivals.
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:A wild guess (Score:5, Insightful)
If anything, the CCS chargers were the main reason why EV charging has such a bad rap in the first place. NACS in the US is a far superior standard to CCS both in reliability and network size.
Here's a video of a guy taking two identical road trips in the US, one using CCS and one using Tesla. Long story short most of the CCS chargers failed while most of the Tesla chargers charged at full speed.
https://youtu.be/92w5doU68D8 [youtu.be]
The main problem was that Tesla was hording the standard as a way to only sell their cars. In fact I thought there was no way the NACS connector was going to get adopted because they waited so long to open the standard to other manufactures and CCS was so ubiquitous in the industry at this point. I was wrong there.
The other problem is the CCS chargers are not maintained well. This is in part to the auto manufactures relying on third party chargers as well as a lack of investment in improving the CCS charging system for better reliability. Tesla has a vested interest to make sure their chargers work, and for the most part their design seems to be much more robust vs their competitors.
Wages (Score:2)
I require megawatt charging. (Score:3)
Re: (Score:3)
I heard Tesla's chargers were flawless? (Score:2, Troll)
'The article also quantifies concerns about reliability of California's public charging system, which "according to studies from academic researchers and market analysts, can be counted on to malfunction at least 20% of the time."'
What fraud. First, the article was from the LA Times and it cited another article from the LA Times as a source, a citation that includes two sources and which is then quoted here. But the cited article says:
"He’s far from the only one worried about the dependability of th
Definitely Market Saturation (Score:5, Insightful)
Re: (Score:3)
The first paragraph really says it all. Expensive and unreliable. Very much the opposite what ordinary people need.
Actually the summary says that it's the charging networks are unreliable, not the EVs and that the other chief complaint seems to be that charging stations are 'few and far between'. If gas stations were few and far between and the gas/diesel pumps kept breaking down ICE powered vehicles would be subject to the same customer complaints. The very fact that people are complaining about infrastructure and not the vehicles themselves should be writing on the wall for anybody planning to stake the future of thei
Re: (Score:2, Insightful)
Re: (Score:3)
But it is true that EVs are currently more unreliable than ICEs.
Once again: [citation needed]
Nope.Nope.Nope. (Score:3)
>> in the long term - maybe 5 - 6 years after purchase - I have the financially catastrophic cost of replacing the battery pack
That does never happen.
On 2012 models, the battery was not well thermally managed, and has typically degraded on cars without thermal management, like the zoe, Leaf, i-miev.
On any current car model developed after 2016, batteries have a longer life than the car.
Also, most EVs have battery warranty 8 years / 70% capacity.
Re: (Score:3)
That does never happen.
Maybe not in 5-6 years but certainly after 8 years, the real-world battery will be reduced and perhaps by quite a lot. Not only that, but the vendors are all allowed to DRM the battery management system (BMS) and hide the details of the CAN-bus interface.
I own a Nissan Leaf from 2016 and it does have severe battery degradation. It was only 1-bar away from a warranty replacement, but skated by with the minimum capacity when the dealer tested it (charging it for 48+ hours). The turd gets about 60 miles now
Re: (Score:2)